Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Opinions my own | Co-founder @glassnode
Berlin
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first fed hike since 2023, the 10-year above 5%, and $BTC is up 11% since the decision
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Rafael retweeted
Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line.
Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.
More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇
Bitcoin is back above the levels that held it down all year. Our new Week On-chain report maps where it could go next.
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bullish confirmation signal on $BTC
today the 30DMA reclaimed the 50WMA for the first time since 2023
the previous crosses confirmed a bull
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here's how each cross played out, lined up on the signal day.
a year later $BTC's median was 3.3x and even the weakest was up 50%. after two years the median was 7x.
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$BTC up almost 50% from the june low, and the coinbase premium is still negative.
The US bid hasn’t even properly arrived yet.
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Rafael retweeted
As expected, bitcoin:native accelerated through the wall of short liquidations.
Shorts accumulated between $82k and $86k for months, however the rejection from this level was shallow.
Now these shorts are the fuel, as these traders are required to buy back BTC.
bitcoin:native is climbing into a thickening liquidation shelf.
The dense cluster sits around $83k–$86k.
If reached, price could move quickly through this zone as shorts are forced to cover.
These shorts have been building for several weeks.
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$BTC long-term holders spent most of this year selling at a loss. that has now been slowly flipping back to profit.
typical of past cycles on the way out of the bear, yet well before anything that felt like a bull.
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Bitcoin 30DMA is about 2% below the 50WMA.
Since 2012, it has crossed above it six times.
If $BTC just holds here around $80k, the next crossing is about 6 days away...
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don’t miss out on this week’s edition to understand the current market view across ETFs, treasuries, capital flows, options etc!
$BTC has slipped below the bottom of the range.
That floor aligned with the True Market Mean and price needs to reclaim it for conditions to remain bullish.
If it does not, the short-term holder cost basis near $70k becomes increasingly likely.
Read more below 👇
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"The market has left its value zone without becoming expensive. A majority of indicators crossing above 50 would be the cleanest confirmation that the cycle position has turned." $BTC
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.
Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.
A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs.
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$5B on $IBIT and $14B on Deribit expire later this month, most of it calls struck at $80K and up.
Spot at $79K.
The options market is positioned for a move above $80K that spot has not made yet. ~3 weeks to find out.
Bitcoin has stalled below long-term overhead supply.
The trading range is well-defined by two cost basis clusters.
Liquidation clusters also provide significant confluence.
Read our latest Week On Chain Article
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bitcoin:native ETF inflows came back with the rally, but volumes didn't (yet).
About $2B a day changing hands versus $4-5 billion in earlier inflow waves. Similar story as spot: the money shows up, the activity hasn't.
Bitcoin has stalled below long-term overhead supply.
The trading range is well-defined by two cost basis clusters.
Liquidation clusters also provide significant confluence.
Read our latest Week On Chain Article
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Still wanna see spot volume across CEXs pick up before calling this move more sustainable.
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