Chief Economic Analyst, The Hamrick Brief. Updates via Substack. LinkedIn Top Voice. Past Pres. of the National Press Club and SABEW. Ex-AP & Bankrate.
Potomac, MD
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That's good. Now give John Murphy the credentials he deserves, and he has been denied, after being the Voice of the Bills for years.
Buffalo Joe! 🦬
We’ve signed LB Joe Andreessen to a two-year contract extension: bufbills.co/4y47vsW
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From @Gallup : Trust in news media rose to 33%, from 28% last year. Still far too low. A functioning democracy needs trustworthy, authoritative journalism, and trust earned through accuracy, transparency, and accountability.
news.gallup.com/poll/714938/…
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The average new-car loan now stretches nearly six years.
And nearly 1 in 4 financed new vehicles carries a loan of seven years or longer.
That’s one way Americans are trying to make increasingly expensive cars fit into monthly budgets.
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The conundrum of the economy: unemployment is low but worker pay broadly is insufficient to meet the challenge of elevated prices. My comments to @Reuters tv:
reuters.com/video/watch/idRW…
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Once you get past the unemployment rate and payrolls, the pay gap is the headline. More Monday via The Hamrick Brief on Substack. thehamrickbrief.substack.com…
Here is my quick reaction to the Sept. employment report.
Wage growth just hit its weakest pace in about five years, up only 3% year over year, while CPI is running at 3.4%.
@hamrickisms of The Hamrick Brief tells @RemyBlaireNews this jobs report was "steady but unspectacular," with downward revisions making for a reduction of 60,000 jobs over the prior two months, and July now showing a contraction.
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How do you go to the NYSE without being in NYC? Joining Remy at @FINTECHTVglobal, of course. We discussed the Sept. jobs report and its implications for the Federal Reserve, as well as for workers.
Joining @RemyBlaireNews this morning:
- @Eric_Criscuolo (@NYSE)
- Moriah Dean (@calvertimpcap)
- @GasBuddyGuy (@GasBuddy)
- @hamrickisms (The Hamrick Brief)
Live from the Big Board.
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September payroll gains fall short, revisions translate to a contraction in July payrolls, and the biggest problem remains inflation and a gap in worker pay. Time for an update to The Hamrick Brief on Substack:
thehamrickbrief.substack.com…
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A steady but unspectacular jobs report. What's the key issue? The gap between elevated inflation and worker pay, which took a step back.
lnkd.in/p/gYN6cTwB
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September hiring slows to 29k jobs added, below forecasts; unemployment rises to 4.2%, and revisions erase 60k jobs from July and August. Average hourly earnings rise 0.1% monthly and 3.0% yearly, trailing recent CPI inflation of 3.4%. The worker pay gap remains intact, a key source of worker tension.
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Shooting one’s foot and just avoiding the skull is still suboptimal. We know the solution to this is to end the war and get fuel and other products moving again.
States across the country are offering tax holidays on fuel ahead of midterms, which is starting to lower the price of fuel. That is great to blunt the blow of higher prices at the pump but at what price?
States collect close to $60 billion a year in fuel tax revenues. A 90-day suspension of those taxes would help ease the pain at the pump but would leave large holes in state coffers, which are already facing major cuts in federal outlays this fiscal year. So it shifts even more of the tax burden onto states and into 2027, when budget shortfalls either cut services or prompt more taxes. As the taxes come back on that will feel like more inflation.
Moreover, the rollback is a temporary tax cut for consumers, which means states are stimulating the economy when it is already accelerating. That ups the risk of a more entrenched bout of inflation - we are already five years in. The result could up the ante on the Fed to hike more instead of less.
The Fed’s tools are blunt and brutal. An easier way to derail inflation is possible but it requires coordination of policy choices that is total absent in the current environment.
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Congratulations. As a fan, and longtime friend of Murph, I appreciate your hard work, fair reporting and consistent effort. 🎙️🏈🦬
I noticed this week I passed 200K followers. Some of you are here because you like the content. Some because you just want your Bills news. Some because you hate-follow. Whatever the reason, I'm honored & thankful you've chosen to allow me to be a small part of your life 🙏🏼🙌🏻💙❤️
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Trust in institutions is remarkably low, but perhaps not surprising. The Supreme Court's historically low.
The Supreme Court’s current 34% job approval rating essentially ties the 33% measured in July after the conclusion of the court’s 2025-2026 term as the lowest in Gallup’s trend.
61% of U.S. adults disapprove of the court, matching the figure from July.
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Mortgage rates posted their biggest weekly jump in four years. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average rose to 7.28% from 7.03%, the largest increase since October 2022. The bond selloff is reaching homebuyers. Small reprieve today: Mortgage News Daily at 7.54%, down from 7.60%.
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🏆 Tweet of the day award goes to:
Important: Consumption is still the No. 1 driver of the US economy.
Last year this chart (left, from the great Neil Dutta @RenMacLLC) got a lot of attention. It showed the AI investment boom adding **more** to US GDP than consumption. That was short-lived.
Now we have more data (see chart on right). The picture is clearer: Consumption is still the biggest US GDP driver, but AI capex has added a lot of extra oomph (often close to a full percentage point)
Basically, the AI boom has pushed the economy in 2025 and 2026 from OK to strong. The problem? Not much of Main Street is feeling that extra oomph...
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U.S. manufacturing continued to expand in September, but the inflation signal is flashing a red light.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5, with stronger new orders and solid production. Prices paid jumped to 77.9, reflecting widespread cost pressures from energy, freight, tariffs, supply disruptions, and the Iran war.
Growth has held up, while costs are heating up.
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Fresh news on job cut announcements, hiring intentions and holiday hiring:
linkedin.com/posts/markhamri…
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The U.S. economy was stronger in the second quarter than expected. Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate, revised up from 1.5% and topping forecasts. A key measure of underlying private demand was stronger still: final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 4.6% rate, up from 4.2%.
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Some welcome inflation news: The Fed’s preferred gauge, the PCE price index, rose 3.4% from a year ago in August, below the 3.7% forecast. Core rose 3.0% from a year ago vs. 3.3% expected. Revisions and calculation changes played a role, and both remain above the Fed’s 2% target.
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Americans kept spending in August, but incomes didn’t keep pace. Personal income rose 0.2%, while consumer spending jumped 0.9%. After inflation, disposable income was flat, and spending rose 0.6%.
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ADP: Private payrolls rose 90K in September, up from 36K in August. Education/health (+55K) and leisure/hospitality (+22K) led; finance (-16K) and professional/business services (-11K) fell. Labor Dept report is due Friday: consensus forecasts call for about 80K-100K jobs added and 4.1% unemployment.
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