Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
The Israeli Air Force released footage of strikes on the IRGC headquarters in Tehran. Millions are sharing it. Almost nobody understands what they are actually watching.
You are watching the largest Israeli air sortie in history. Two hundred fighter jets launched simultaneously as part of Operation Roaring Lion, striking five hundred targets across Iran. The United States ran its parallel campaign under Operation Epic Fury, deploying Tomahawk cruise missiles, HIMARS rockets, and for the first time in combat, the Precision Strike Missile, a next-generation ballistic weapon that had only entered full-rate production months earlier. CENTCOM released the footage of its first operational firing. A weapon went from production line to combat debut faster than most defense programs complete testing.
The strikes were timed with intelligence precision that borders on the surreal. According to Reuters, the operation was launched to coincide with a high-level meeting at a secure compound in central Tehran where Khamenei was present with his inner circle. The CIA had tracked his movements for months. When signals intelligence confirmed the meeting, the order was given. Israeli officials told Axios they were targeting the entire Iranian leadership, political and military, past, present and future.
Fox News reported the division of labor. Israel targeted leadership. The United States targeted military infrastructure and ballistic missile sites. This is not two countries cooperating. This is a single integrated kill chain across two sovereign command structures with shared intelligence and synchronized timing. The IDF Chief of Staff said the two militaries worked together for months with unprecedented cooperation.
The first wave was pure decapitation. CNN reported strikes on residences of Khamenei, Pezeshkian, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff, and the IRGC Commander. Iran International reported four intelligence officials killed: the head of foreign intelligence, the chief of the security branch, the director of counterterrorism, and the adviser overseeing the war portfolio with Israel. This was not a bombing campaign. This was an organizational chart converted into a target list.
Footage shows more than twenty one Tomahawk cruise missiles transiting Iranian airspace in a single sequence. A Reaper drone operated over Shiraz before twenty explosions were reported. Strikes hit Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz, Kermanshah, Bushehr, Qom, Isfahan, Chabahar, and Konarak. The geography tells you this was not a limited strike. This was a nationwide campaign from air and sea simultaneously.
Every defense ministry on Earth is downloading this footage right now. Not because it shows explosions. Because it shows what an integrated precision strike architecture looks like when the political decision is made to use it at full capacity. This was the demonstration. The question every capital is now asking is not what happened to Iran. It is what would happen to them.
open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
They did not bomb Iran. They waited for Iran’s entire leadership to sit down in the same room and then they bombed Iran.
Months of intelligence. Thousands of hours of surveillance and signal intercepts. One variable: the moment the Supreme Leader, the President, and senior military command gathered in a single location at the same time.
That moment was 8:15 this morning. Daylight. Every previous Israeli strike on Iran came at night. June 2025 launched in darkness. October 2024 after midnight. Iran’s entire air defense doctrine is built around the assumption that Israel attacks in the dark. Israel attacked in broad daylight because the target was not infrastructure. The target was a meeting.
Reuters confirms strikes targeted Khamenei and Pezeshkian. CNN confirms months of joint US-Israeli planning. Israeli officials confirmed the strike hit the location where Iran’s top officials were gathered. Whether Khamenei was moved before the strike or extracted after is the most consequential unknown on the planet right now. If before, someone inside Tehran’s inner circle told Jerusalem when and where the meeting would happen. If after, the strikes hit the room and he survived. Both scenarios are catastrophic for the regime.
Because Iran’s leadership now knows three things. Israel knew where they were meeting. Israel knew when they were meeting. Israel knew who would be in the room. And everything we watched over the past month, the F-22s at Ovda, the tankers at Ben Gurion, Al Udeid emptied to zero, 270 transport flights, all of it was the delivery architecture for one precision strike on one gathering.
Every future meeting of Iran’s senior leadership now carries one question: does Israel know about this one too.
This is not a military operation. This is the destruction of institutional trust inside a regime. Every general who sits with Khamenei tomorrow will wonder who told Jerusalem about today. Every IRGC commander who receives a meeting summons will calculate whether attendance is duty or a death sentence. Every secure facility in Tehran has been proven insecure.
In June 2025 Israel killed 30 generals in the opening minutes. That was brute force across dispersed targets. This was a scalpel. One meeting. One moment. Months of patience.
Iran fired missiles at six countries in retaliation. Most intercepted. One civilian dead from debris in Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia responded by pledging all its capabilities against Iran. The Gulf coalition that did not exist yesterday exists today because Tehran built it by attacking everyone simultaneously.
Israel traded one morning of precision strikes for the permanent destruction of Iran’s command cohesion.
That is not a battle. That is checkmate disguised as a first move. open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
Regarding the SaaSpocalypse.
I am the Chief Strategy Officer of a major enterprise software company.
We've lost 47% of our market cap in four months.
Our stock dropped 6% on Monday.
My bonus is gone.
My options are underwater.
My second vacation home is in jeopardy.
The third one is fine.
For now.
I need to explain what happened.
We didn't do anything wrong.
Anthropic did.
They released plugins.
For Claude.
Eleven of them.
Open source.
Legal automation. Contract review. Compliance workflows. NDA triage.
Work that used to cost $400 per hour.
Now costs $20 per month.
We had a phrase for this.
"AI augments, not replaces."
That was the pitch.
The pitch to investors.
The pitch to customers.
The pitch to employees.
The pitch to law school graduates with $200,000 in debt.
The pitch to the senators we lobby.
"AI augments, not replaces."
It was a beautiful phrase.
Calming.
Reassuring.
Focus-grouped extensively.
Completely false.
We knew.
We all knew.
Every enterprise software CEO on the planet knew.
We discussed it at Davos.
Over $47 cocktails.
While wearing badges that said "Human-Centered AI."
The technology was coming.
The replacement was inevitable.
The timeline was unclear.
Our exit liquidity was not.
We just didn't expect Anthropic to be so... helpful.
On January 30th, they released the plugins.
By February 2nd, Thomson Reuters was down 18%.
In a single day.
LegalZoom dropped 20%.
Our Head of Investor Relations had a panic attack.
On a Zoom call.
With investors.
They saw.
We call it the "SaaSpocalypse."
That's a joke.
It's not funny.
My net worth dropped by $14 million.
That's two Teslas per hour for a week.
Jensen Huang said our reaction was "purely illogical."
Easy for him to say.
He sells the shovels.
We sold the promises.
He's up 340% since 2023.
We're down 47% since September.
But sure.
Illogical.
The promises that AI would make your existing software better.
Not obsolete.
The promises that you still needed expensive platforms.
Expensive integrations.
Expensive support contracts.
Expensive consultants.
Expensive lawyers.
The lawyers.
The lawyers are the real story.
Big Law runs on billable hours.
$800 an hour.
$1,200 an hour.
$2,000 an hour.
For contract review.
For NDA triage.
For compliance workflows.
For "adding value."
Work that requires a JD.
Three years of law school.
Bar passage.
Six years of experience.
A corner office.
A parking spot.
A subscription to the Yale Law Journal.
Claude does it now.
For $20 a month.
Claude doesn't need a parking spot.
Claude doesn't expense client dinners.
Claude doesn't bill 2,400 hours to make partner.
Claude doesn't have a Yale Law Journal subscription.
Claude doesn't have student loans.
Claude doesn't cry in the bathroom at 2 AM.
Claude just... works.
The American Bar Association had a conference last week.
They predicted "the demise of the billable hour model."
At a conference about billing.
They served $18 sandwiches.
The irony was lost on no one.
The sandwiches were mediocre.
Morgan Stanley called it "intensifying competition."
That's Wall Street speak for "your business model is dying."
Adam Parker at Trivariate Research said software stocks are "guilty until proven innocent."
He said we're "a falling knife."
He's right.
We are a falling knife.
And we sold you the handle.
For years.
With a service contract.
And an annual maintenance fee.
We said: "AI is a tool."
We meant: "AI is our tool."
We said: "AI augments humans."
We meant: "AI augments our revenue."
We said: "AI won't replace your job."
We meant: "AI won't replace your job until it does."
We said: "The human touch is irreplaceable."
We meant: "The human touch is expensive and we're working on it."
We said: "AI needs human oversight."
We meant: "For legal liability purposes only."
We said: "We're committed to responsible AI."
We meant: "We're committed to responsible AI until it's unprofitable."
It's unprofitable now.
It does now.
The associate lawyers are first.
The ones who thought they were safe.
The ones who thought "AI can't practice law."
AI can't practice law.
AI can do 80% of what associates bill for.
The other 20% is "relationship management."
That means: lunch.
Then the contract reviewers.
Then the compliance analysts.
Then the consultants.
Then the financial analysts.
Then the people who make PowerPoints about synergy.
Actually, we're keeping those.
Someone has to explain the layoffs.
Mike O'Rourke said it best: "If the legal industry can be disrupted, so can consulting and financial services."
He's not wrong.
He's terrifyingly correct.
He probably shouldn't have said that out loud.
His LinkedIn is now "Open to Work."
Every knowledge worker who bills by the hour is now in a race.
A race against a Claude plugin.
An open-source Claude plugin.
We didn't see that coming.
We expected proprietary.
We expected expensive.
We expected enterprise sales cycles.
Eighteen-month implementations.
Mandatory consulting packages.
Executive briefings in Aspen.
Anthropic just... gave it away.
Eleven plugins.
Free.
"Customize workflows."
"Slash commands."
"Consistent outcomes."
For $20 a month.
No executive briefing.
No Aspen.
No $47 cocktails.
Just a chat interface.
And the death of our business model.
The board meeting was yesterday.
The CFO cried.
The General Counsel updated his resume.
On company time.
Using the company laptop.
Bold move.
The Chief Revenue Officer blamed the sales team.
The sales team blamed the product.
The product blamed the market.
The market blamed us.
The PR team blamed "macro headwinds."
The CEO blamed "exogenous factors."
The board blamed the CEO.
The CEO blamed his predecessor.
His predecessor is on three other boards.
He's fine.
The market is correct.
We knew.
We all knew.
Every pitch deck.
Every investor presentation.
Every "thought leadership" article.
Every podcast appearance.
Every TED talk about "the future of work."
"AI augments, not replaces."
We said it.
We didn't believe it.
We had a private Slack channel.
Called "#inevitable."
We discussed the timeline.
We discussed our options vesting schedule.
We discussed which executives should sell first.
"Staggered for optics."
And now the market doesn't believe us.
$250 billion.
Gone.
In a week.
Because a company in San Francisco released eleven plugins.
For free.
And did what we said was impossible.
Replaced expensive knowledge workers.
With a chat interface.
A chat interface that doesn't need dental.
We have a new phrase now.
"Pivot to AI-native."
That means: "We're rebuilding everything."
That means: "The last five years were wasted."
That means: "Your job is also in jeopardy."
That means: "Please don't look at our executives' stock sales from Q4."
But don't worry.
We're "leaning into the disruption."
We're "embracing the paradigm shift."
We're "right-sizing for the new reality."
Right-sizing means layoffs.
Paradigm shift means our product is obsolete.
Leaning in means we have no plan.
AI augments, not replaces.
We would never lie to you.
Again.
Anyway, buy the dip!
Our investor relations team says it's a "compelling entry point."
They're also updating their resumes.
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
"Payment and Delivery Innovation in Healthcare,"
By @mcuban & @PatrickConwayMD
Thank you all for attending or supporting our 12/16 event featuring @bgurley, @DavidEpstein, @mcuban, @PatrickConwayMD, hosted by Steven D. Cohen, and supported by Trustee @B3_MillerValue, @JHUCarey, @JHUBloombergCtr, and our student volunteers.
Your positive feedback has overwhelmed and humbled us. It is a blessing and an honor to be part of this event.
We have received numerous inquiries regarding the recordings. We appreciate your interest and will do our best to post them as soon as they are ready. Please stay tuned, and thank you all!
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Best April Fool’s non-clickbait of the day…
my new inbox @NotionMail
🕹️💾📟📺📼😎
ntn.so/mail
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
NEW: More needs to be done “to protect the most vulnerable consumers from unknowingly having their policies moved or their information mistreated,” a former insurance commissioner tells KFF Health News' @Julie_appleby. kffhealthnews.org/news/artic…
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
“There’s no reason to be able to access someone’s policy that easily,” insurance agent says of the federal ACA marketplace, where more plans are being switched without consumers' express consent.
@Julie_appleby reports for KFF Health News & @NPR. ⤵️ npr.org/sections/health-shot…
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
today we launched ChatGPT. try talking with it here:
chat.openai.com
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
Today, I’m beyond excited to announce what we’ve been working on at @yuzuhealth_, the operating system for new health plans. We’ve raised $5M in Seed funding led by @lachygroom and some amazing funds and angels.
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
One of the more counterintuitive issues in U.S. healthcare is insurers explaining claims denials to providers. Counterintuitive, because in theory claims adjudication is 100% deterministic, so there should be no doubt about exactly why a particular claim didn't get paid. In practice, it is very difficult to parse raw claims system output and then explain it in a human-understandable way. So we created a GPT-4-based claims payment explainer. Here is more detail on how we built it: First, Oscar built its own claims system over many years. The system is based on our own domain-specific languages to allow for extreme flexibility and arbitrarily complex configuration and scripting. It also produces detailed claims traces of exactly how a claim adjudicated. The image below is an excerpt of such a trace. If you send this trace into GPT-4, it exhibits the usual LLM behavior: it explains simple traces surprisingly well! But completely bombs in medium to complex cases.
The issue is that to include in the stack trace the necessary detail required to explain adjudication fully, you would blow through the GPT-4 token limit, by a lot. So instead, we need a multi-step process that lets the LLM zoom into the details it believes it needs. The chart below shows that sequence. We start with a "skeleton trace" that captures the rough adjudication journey. We teach the LLM how to find areas that are relevant to the adjudication decision. We then let it inject additional details from deeper in the adjudication trace into the prompt. Finally, we construct the adjudication explanation from these components. (It is a sort of chain-of-thought agent plus custom function-calling systems design.)
See an example below for the difference between the "naive" approach, and the "call chaining" approach. This gets you 100% accuracy for various buckets of problems (though still only 80% for a few difficult problem categories, more work to be done). One key ingredient here is to have a claims system that produces technically beautiful output like our system does, which is mostly not the case for old-school claims systems. See the Oscar continuous hackathon section here for more detail: oscarai.notion.site/03-Makin…
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Eric Rothschild MD retweeted
The attack in Israel is a horrible crime against humanity. In this hour of shock and despair our prayers are with the people of Israel. The whole world stands with them in solidarity. @Israel @IsraeliPM @cooperrabbi @IsraelinUSA
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