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🚨🇮🇷 Iran no longer knows where its own naval mines are in the Strait of Hormuz. The mines were deployed without precise records. Those whose coordinates existed have drifted with the currents. Only a narrow corridor remains, accessible as a toll. Washington says Tehran lacks the technical capabilities to neutralize them. This will not help reopening the Strait of Hormuz and according to @Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by end of April.

Trump wants Iran to stop charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said: "Iran is doing a very poor job... of allowing oil to pass through... That is not the agreement we have!" According to @Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by end of April, and a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran will probably not happen before June.

🚨The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Trump confirmed that US forces would remain positioned in the region until a "real deal" is signed, with a direct threat if it is not respected. Trump's claims of a "complete opening" of the strait have not materialized: only 3-4 vessels transited yesterday. @Polymarket anticipates between 20 and 40 ships by end of April, far from the 3,800 vessels per month in normal times. Iran reportedly told mediators it plans to limit passage to ~12 ships/day and impose tolls, which Washington has publicly rejected. WTI crude reacted by climbing back above $98/barrel. The Iranian parliament released a statement accusing the US and Israel of already violating 3 of the 10 clauses of the negotiation framework: 1. No ceasefire in Lebanon 2. A drone's intrusion into Iranian airspace 3. US refusal to recognize Iran's right to nuclear enrichment

🚨Is the US-Iran ceasefire already over? The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency. Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and is preparing potential responses. On @Polymarket, the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April" market saw important volatility in the past 24h, going from a 64% chance of return to normal to only 32%.

OpenAI's CFO is pushing back on Sam Altman, the IPO could be at risk over runaway spending concerns. According to @Polymarket, OpenAI is unlikely to go public this year. OpenAI brought in $13 billion in revenue in 2025, while spending $8 billion over the same period, per Boursorama.

🚨🇮🇷 US & Iran are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the Iran War, per Axios. According to @Polymarket, there is a 55% chance of having a ceasefire before the end of June. There is only 28% chance of having a ceasefire in April. A US official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials have not accepted.

🚨Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. According to @Polymarket, the average number of ships crossing the strait each week remains uncertain, but the most likely scenario is between 0 and 10 ships per week.

🚨 Trump revealed the gift Iran gave to the United States. Donald Trump claims that Iran offered the U.S. 10 oil tankers to demonstrate its willingness to reach a peace deal. However, the prediction market tied to a ceasefire between Iran & the US has not moved.

🚨Marine traffic data shows limited movement returning to the Strait of Hormuz. Some vessels are being charged ~$2M for safe passage, excluding US- and Israeli-linked vessels. According to @Polymarket, fewer than 10 ships are expected to pass through the Strait per week by the end of March.

🚨Hyperview on the Iranian situation After a volatile day with multiple twists, here’s what prediction markets on @Polymarket are pricing: • A ceasefire between Iran and the US is expected around June 5, according to our forecast model. • The market for a nuclear deal between Iran and the US is up +16% in the past 24 hours, now pricing a 33.5% probability of an agreement before June 30. • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has a 35% chance of returning to normal by the end of April. • Odds of crude oil reaching $90 by the end of March dropped from 83% to 63% over the past 24 hours.

Markets have just priced in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in April and June following Jerome Powell’s speech. This @Polymarket event has jumped by +18.0% over the past 24 hours.

🚨 US recession probability is close to 50% according to Moody’s, and could cross that threshold if oil prices remain elevated. @Polymarket odds tell a different story, with only a ~31% chance of a recession this year. Since the Iran war began in late February, oil has surged sharply, briefly approaching $100–$120 per barrel depending on the benchmark. Historically, nearly every US recession since World War II, except COVID, has been preceded by a spike in oil prices

🚨This Chart Shows When Confidence Comes Back to Hormuz The chart on the left only includes vessels with AIS turned on which is the ship’s GPS It clearly shows that traffic is almost at a standstill even though some ships may already be crossing the strait with AIS switched off. The key signal to watch is when ships start crossing again. According to @Polymarket there is a 70% chance that between 0 and 10 ships per week will pass through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of March.

🚨 Taiwan reports a massive presence of Chinese military aircraft around the island. This comes two days after major naval drills, during which nearly 2,000 Chinese vessels reportedly formed two 400 km barriers in the East China Sea. Despite the tensions, prediction markets barely reacted, moving only +1% in the past 24 hours. The probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains low at just 11% this year.