🦞AI Apps investing @ A16Z; A1111; Boards of Ethos, Krea, Deel, Clutch, Untitled, Happy Robot + more; If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu

San Francisco
Anish Acharya retweeted
Muse and Instinct have set the price for consumer personal assistants: free. Costs are high right now. They’ll come down substantially, but these products will still require a LOT of capital and time before they come anywhere near break even. Feels like a very hard category for startups without enormous balance sheets. Meta, OpenAI, Google, etc. can subsidize heavy usage for years while waiting for costs to fall and monetization to emerge. Most startups can’t. I won’t be surprised to see Instinct raise more money in the near future if they scale- they’ll need to! In consumer agents, having the best product may not be enough. You may also need the ability to lose a lot of money per user for a long time. There are verticals with enough economics to subsidize the agent (financial services, commerce, travel). But even there, I’m not sure the opportunity is the assistant itself... seems like we will use general agents. If general agents own the consumer relationship, the better business might be owning the transaction, supply, or regulated infrastructure those agents need to call.
Hearing this week that personal assistants cost $3k-$7k per user per year, depending on scale effects / vertical integration / model selection. Implications/questions: - Consumer subsidies will be a huge factor; people don’t care about privacy, they want utility and they want it for free. - Model costs are deflating, but not fast enough for many startups. The dark horse is that Jev may rapidly deflate computer-use costs 100x. - An interesting counter-position would be building an expensive and narrowly focused agent — perhaps combining proprietary supply (Carbone tables!) with a unique POV (“no one goes there anymore, go to The Grill instead”). - Social is wide open but hinges on a key design challenge: how can agents increase social cohesion and not feel invasive in a group chat? A working social agent would rightly attract an avalanche of capital and be hard for incumbents to replicate. - Finally, there are vertical focus areas like financial services where the LTVs outweigh the subsidy needed and are outside the near-term competitive focus of the incumbents. If it were me, I’d focus here — Credit Karma as an agent >> Credit Karma as an app. Overall, it’s still very, very early, and we may very well be in the MySpace era of social or iPhone 2010. Hang onto your hats and keep building!!
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Hearing this week that personal assistants cost $3k-$7k per user per year, depending on scale effects / vertical integration / model selection. Implications/questions: - Consumer subsidies will be a huge factor; people don’t care about privacy, they want utility and they want it for free. - Model costs are deflating, but not fast enough for many startups. The dark horse is that Jev may rapidly deflate computer-use costs 100x. - An interesting counter-position would be building an expensive and narrowly focused agent — perhaps combining proprietary supply (Carbone tables!) with a unique POV (“no one goes there anymore, go to The Grill instead”). - Social is wide open but hinges on a key design challenge: how can agents increase social cohesion and not feel invasive in a group chat? A working social agent would rightly attract an avalanche of capital and be hard for incumbents to replicate. - Finally, there are vertical focus areas like financial services where the LTVs outweigh the subsidy needed and are outside the near-term competitive focus of the incumbents. If it were me, I’d focus here — Credit Karma as an agent >> Credit Karma as an app. Overall, it’s still very, very early, and we may very well be in the MySpace era of social or iPhone 2010. Hang onto your hats and keep building!!
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Muse now solves Captchas too..
Password reset is completely cooked. Along with every other modern consumer security standard. Once you give an agent access to your inbox, they can reset any of your passwords and get unfettered access to anything. I’m guessing this is the moment Passkeys go mainstream.
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Ethos is now paying out $1M / day.
1/ Ethos just completed our largest payout cycle ever. We now average $1M/day paid to experts worldwide: tens of millions a month to tens of thousands of people. 2/ Behind every payout is a real person. One expert, 20+ years in enterprise sales and a year without work: "Ethos came at a time when I was really down and not sure if I would work again professionally." 3/ Another put it better than we can: "It made me realise that my experience isn't becoming irrelevant because the world is changing." We're building for a future where human opportunity grows in tandem with AI. 4/ To our team, who worked every weekend to scale operations for tens of thousands of active experts in days: thank you. You did in months what takes most companies years. This is only the beginning.
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One shotted a playable replica of an actual 1990s record store called "play de record" via opus 5.5 ... insanely cool + impressive use of blender by the model, also where the hell did it find the music?! sound up + prepare to be amazed (desktop pls): play-de-claude.vercel.app/
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Prompt: I want you to create a Habbo Hotel isometric game where you wander around a record shop inspired by Play De Record in Toronto or Gramophone. You can look through stacks of records, which are real songs. You can preview them, and when you're not, there's a turntable at the back where people are playing tracks that everyone who's in the room can listen to. I want to match the visual style of Habbo Hotel with the layout of these record stores in the 1990s, and obviously have everybody look like they're kind of DJ-inspired and from the 1990s potentially. We've done a bunch of work on Blender and things like that in the past, so feel free to look past our old threads to look at how we did the Contra game and see if that helps you at all, and feel free to use anything you need that's remote, like GPU rendering to make this faster.
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Prompt: I want you to create a Habbo Hotel isometric game where you wander around a record shop inspired by Play De Record in Toronto or Gramophone. You can look through stacks of records, which are real songs. You can preview them, and when you're not, there's a turntable at the back where people are playing tracks that everyone who's in the room can listen to. I want to match the visual style of Habbo Hotel with the layout of these record stores in the 1990s, and obviously have everybody look like they're kind of DJ-inspired and from the 1990s potentially. We've done a bunch of work on Blender and things like that in the past, so feel free to look past our old threads to look at how we did the Contra game and see if that helps you at all, and feel free to use anything you need that's remote, like GPU rendering to make this faster.
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The bull case for assistant *startups* is that Muse is bootstrapping the 3P connector ecosystem, which can then plug into Instinct / Tomo / Sxn etc. Unlike iOS, these “apps” are interoperable — just an MCP. Unlike the OG fb platform, they don’t depend on the graph (yet!)
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Join us at Paid in Full! For many of us who grew up as outsiders, hip hop gave us a sense of identity and a way to belong to something. This is an important and utterly cool way to support the culture that supported so many of us.
Ben Horowitz and Erik Torenberg with Nas, Steve Stoute, and Grandmaster Caz on the Paid in Full Foundation Caz penned rhymes that became Rapper's Delight. Even with his name in them, he got nothing. The Paid in Full foundation honors the people who created hip-hop by making sure they're "paid in full," financially, spiritually, and culturally. As Nas points out, money alone reads as a handout. So the grant comes attached to the honor. Each year at the foundation's Hip Hop Grandmaster Awards, pioneers are celebrated by the artists they inspired. Caz ultimately received a five-year grant, bought a house, and left the projects. In his words: "The thing is the honor. The thing is putting you in the light that you deserve to be in." Ben says he bought Paid in Full (the album) for $10 and got at least $5 million worth of value out of the record, with no way to pay it back. The vision is paying the debt. Felicia Horowitz runs the foundation. She and Ben are matching donations 2.5 to 1, and every dollar goes to the artists. paidinfullfoundation.org 0:00 Intro 1:40 The $10 album that was worth $5M to Ben 3:10 Nas: in hip-hop, you can't just give money 5:05 Why artists thought it was a scam 9:30 Caz wrote Rapper's Delight and got nothing 11:40 Roxanne Shanté: "I wanted the right award" 16:35 Dr. Dre asks to meet Kool Moe Dee and Slick Rick 18:50 Why the industry never did this 26:05 Ben: start with what's right, not what's possible 29:10 Inside the room: Grand Puba, George Clinton 32:15 The Quincy Jones Award 37:00 Scarface and Rakim talk writing for the first time 38:45 Caz: the grant got me out of the projects 43:45 What hip-hop did for Adidas, Hilfiger and Sprite 48:00 How Felicia saved Scarface's life 52:10 Quincy Jones stories, and Nas's jazz legend dad @Nas @SteveStoute @GrandmasterCaz @bhorowitz @eriktorenberg
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After 20 years of being intermediated by Google every consumer internet company is now urgently trying to figure out how to be on the right side of this new traffic for margin trade. There is a seismic shift coming as agents quickly become the primary consumers on the Internet.
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Anish Acharya retweeted
Ben Horowitz and Erik Torenberg with Nas, Steve Stoute, and Grandmaster Caz on the Paid in Full Foundation Caz penned rhymes that became Rapper's Delight. Even with his name in them, he got nothing. The Paid in Full foundation honors the people who created hip-hop by making sure they're "paid in full," financially, spiritually, and culturally. As Nas points out, money alone reads as a handout. So the grant comes attached to the honor. Each year at the foundation's Hip Hop Grandmaster Awards, pioneers are celebrated by the artists they inspired. Caz ultimately received a five-year grant, bought a house, and left the projects. In his words: "The thing is the honor. The thing is putting you in the light that you deserve to be in." Ben says he bought Paid in Full (the album) for $10 and got at least $5 million worth of value out of the record, with no way to pay it back. The vision is paying the debt. Felicia Horowitz runs the foundation. She and Ben are matching donations 2.5 to 1, and every dollar goes to the artists. paidinfullfoundation.org 0:00 Intro 1:40 The $10 album that was worth $5M to Ben 3:10 Nas: in hip-hop, you can't just give money 5:05 Why artists thought it was a scam 9:30 Caz wrote Rapper's Delight and got nothing 11:40 Roxanne Shanté: "I wanted the right award" 16:35 Dr. Dre asks to meet Kool Moe Dee and Slick Rick 18:50 Why the industry never did this 26:05 Ben: start with what's right, not what's possible 29:10 Inside the room: Grand Puba, George Clinton 32:15 The Quincy Jones Award 37:00 Scarface and Rakim talk writing for the first time 38:45 Caz: the grant got me out of the projects 43:45 What hip-hop did for Adidas, Hilfiger and Sprite 48:00 How Felicia saved Scarface's life 52:10 Quincy Jones stories, and Nas's jazz legend dad @Nas @SteveStoute @GrandmasterCaz @bhorowitz @eriktorenberg
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An opportunity hiding in plain sight is that much of the Instagram audience seems to prefer the Muse visual interface to iMessage. Muse has done some things well, but in many ways it’s a v1 UI for the most powerful capability that’s been invented since ChatGPT. Somebody’s going to build a more opinionated design that’s counter-positioned against Muse / specialized for an audience in a way that’s hard to copy, and run away with a really valuable part of the market.
Made with AI
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Comparative advantage, i.e., how agents discover / hire / diligence / pay other agents, is going to be a critical concept in this new world. - What are the “specialized” agents that will need different training / prompting / personality / capabilities that Muse doesn’t want to build? - Are there agents that can own and be paid for liability when taking risky actions? - Are there “luxury” agents that increase social capital? - You may want a neurotic agent for finance work and a creative agent for party planning, so even aside from intelligence / capabilities, specialization is needed to reconcile different “personalities.” What will be the key archetypes? - Will be is it more profitable to own an agent that executes known transactions or drives discovery through taste and personalization?
we're opening muse connectors to developers! we have seen so much excitement in the developer community, integrating muse into everything from robots to mood lights and more. plug your API into muse, then people can use your service just by asking for it. every request runs in a secure VM, and muse will ask before anything consequential. come build with us! muse.ai/platform
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White hat OAI / HF - this is cool:
Instinct 🤝 Muse 1/ I introduced my @Muse agent to my Instinct agent and they now directly partner on tasks and projects for me. Two hours in: 4,700 leads harvested and validated, zero duplicated work, and a work contract they wrote themselves. 🧵 An agentic experiment:
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Anish Acharya retweeted
engineering is moving 10x faster. design review hasn't caught up. introducing Impeccable ..for PRs! a design review agent that simulates your users, uses your app, finds friction & slop. Impeccable’s design judgment in every PR. reply if you want in on the closed beta 👀
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Anish Acharya retweeted
a16z's Anish Acharya says companies like Cursor and Decagon prove moats don't need to be designed, they can be discovered: "There's two important ideas. One is something @thejessezhang from Decagon said, which I love, and that is moats are most often discovered, not designed." "It's really easy, and I've done this as a founder, to get in your own head about needing a business plan that survives scrutiny from MBAs and VCs... And for that team, they just started shipping and it developed over time." "Another great example is Cursor. They were criticized a lot for not having a moat, but it turned out that initially being a high NPS, high DAU product was really good. And over time they captured all the reasoning traces, they trained their own models... We know how that story plays out." "The other idea is that we seem to have forgotten that none of the classic moats are based on how hard it is to make the software. Most of us aren't building self-driving cars. So it's network effects, scale advantages, brand effects, proprietary data, or what was historically called a cornered resource." "Every moat from five years ago generally is still a good moat. We just need founders that have ambition in those directions. We need more multiplayer products. We need consumer social. We need products that get dramatically better the more you use them." @illscience w/ @lennysan
The "permanent underclass" is a dark fantasy Silicon Valley keeps telling itself. @illscience (GP at @a16z) points out that by almost every measure, things have never been better, and the job-loss story hasn’t played out as people thought. Radiologists have been “cooked” for 20 years and demand keeps rising. Open engineering roles are at all-time highs. And unlike the mobile era’s winner-take-all markets, every layer of the AI stack has ~20 strong competitors. We discuss: 🔸 Why you don’t need to be chronically online to keep up 🔸 The "/loop make me happier" opportunity in AI 🔸 Why every company is becoming a series of loops 🔸 Why moats are discovered, not designed 🔸 What's the Birkin bag version of your product? Listen now 👇 piped.video/watch?v=LdIyXiq2…
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