actuary | creator of inpredictable.com | co-creator of evollve.net | you can also find me at bsky under the same handle
Los Angeles
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I'm so excited for this launch, and incredibly proud of the work @cwetzel31 and @basketballvalue have put into this.
I'm really looking forward to how we can contribute to the sport of volleyball.
We are thrilled to announce the launch of Evollve!
Our goal at Evollve is to provide the volleyball community with consistent, reliable, and easily accessible data and analysis.
Check it out at evollve.net!
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The funny thing is the field goal probably felt like the “play it safe” choice even though it had a lower chance of success than just going for it.
And the downside of failure is worse on a field goal because you lose 7 yards.
This was a terrible decision by DeMeco Ryans.
Down 7, facing 4th & 1 from the CIN 40, Houston attempted a 58-yard FG.
Ben Baldwin’s (@benbbaldwin ) model:
Go: 37% WP
FG: 30% WP
Punt: 27% WP
Going for it was worth +6.8% WP over kicking.
Not only did the 58-yarder come up short, Cincinnati took the ensuing field position and drove for a TD to make it a 14-point game.
DeMeco was asked about the decision afterward and didn’t answer the question.
Results aside, I just can’t justify this process. One yard or a 58-yard FG. Give your offense a chance.
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I didn’t have the game on and saw the score update and just assumed the Cowboys went for the down 8 go for 2 strategy and were unsuccessful.
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
Reproducing @inpredict work inpredictable.com/2021/01/nb… in 2D and 3D using @SkillCorner ACB Body pose data
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There was no "secret clock". Unless you consider a clock in full view of 110,00 people to be a secret. The Big10 replay clock was literally just a camera pointed at the stadium scoreboard.
NBC messed up the clock sync on their broadcast and probably just wants this issue to die.
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What is the source of the clock on the right, which is what the replay official used to make the call in the Michigan game.
It kind of looks like a video feed of a stadium clock? Not sure what the numbers are on the top right. Doesn't look like a score.
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Maybe a dumb question, but even if the Western Michigan player touched the ball with a second left, the clock still runs until a foot hits the ground yes?
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New substack post is live!
Breaking down all the new features we've rolled out for 2026, including:
🏐Player leaderboards
🏐Player similarity tool
🏐and more!
evollve.substack.com/p/new-s…
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
for my real life, I started a stats data company focused on women’s & emerging sports, starting w/ @NCAAVolleyball, which opens tonight. we’re about to push a ton of new stuff + sports but download it, hit me up with feature requests, and show some love! apps.apple.com/us/app/fanfla…
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🚨2026 site is live 🚨
Just in time for the start of the season tonight, we've launched the updated Evollve.net including
🏐new features such as player impact metrics like RAPM
🏐game projections including for both games tonight
🏐much more!
Our preseason top 10:
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
Who has been the WNBA’s most clutch player this year?
To answer that, I built and tested a win probability model, then measured how much each player shifts their team’s odds of winning late in close games.
Sabrina Ionescu comes out on top.
Here’s what goes into the numbers 👇
ALT A table showing the top 10 WNBA players by Win Probability Added (WPA) per 5 clutch minutes. (Minimum 25 clutch minutes played.) Clutch time uses the WNBA's definition and occurs during the final five minutes of a game when the score is within five points. WPA includes shot attempts, free throws, turnovers, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, fouls drawn and fouls committed.
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When Claude comes to me with a wall of text like “I smoke-verified the config-guarded ‘one authority per tibble‘ materialization core (clean), but the metadata-bearing patches (no-op) are spec-shaped—and that’s a call that’s genuinely yours.”
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
This has major implications for DARKO's ratings. Doing a complete refit now. Everyone else better start updating their models accordingly to keep up!
hello there the jacobian conjecture is false thanx to my close friend akhil for asking about it and my other close friend fable for working during the world cup final
((1+xy)^3 z + y^2 (1+xy) (4+3xy), y + 3 x (1+xy)^2 z + 3 x y^2 (4+3xy), 2 x - 3 x^2 y - x^3 z): \C^3\to \C^3, has jacobian determinant -2, and sends (0, 0, -1/4), (1, -3/2, 13/2), and (-1, 3/2, 13/2) to (-1/4, 0, 0)
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
Argentina 🇦🇷, amazingly, has scored the majority of its goals after the 80th minute in this World Cup
(Stoppage time goals plotted at 90' for simplicity)
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I like how movies treat trains like they’re inscrutable forces of nature, or wild animals.
They exist to imperil the main characters or to provide them with a getaway. Or both.
But they never try to slow down no matter how insane the situation.
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If this result were reversed you could just say it’s the goalies that feel the pressure.
The real reason is selection bias. Tale as old as time.
68% - Since 1982, the conversion rate for penalties taken in normal and extra time at the World Cup is 78%.
That figure drops to just 68% when teams enter a penalty shoot-out.
Pressure.
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