I will argue that the culprit is timing and substrate instability more than design or anything else.
We have simply not had successful consumer AI companies (besides OpenAI and maybe Claude - not Claude Code).
- Inference cost
- Jagged intelligence
- Rapidly changing frontier
- Free ChatGPT good enough for most normies
Intelligence is a new medium. Even there memory, personality, persistence, agent agency, long term planning are not really solved.
I have yet to see an agent harness/scaffolding that survives 6 months. Every new model makes half the bells and whistles unnecessary.
New model capabilities gave a shelf life of a few months before Open Source catches up. You can’t design great consumer UX on a platform that’s still being invented underneath you.
The tech has not settled yet for masses. Even early adopters can’t keep up. Things that have won are those that we had priors for - Chatbots, Coding.
Also don’t think designing for pixels is dead. We are very visual creatures. The shape of what we call “UI” needs to evolve along with a few computing constructs.
The shape of the container of intelligence will be varied and hyper personal.
We are in very very early innings. This is not the iPhone moment. This is pre-Macintosh moment.
i have one upsetting observation: all the beautifully designed AI tools we’ve seen so far (dot, humane, cobot) were basically dead on arrival, while complex, highly technical products (claude code, openclaw) gain mass adoption in seconds.
we're definitely missing something.