the bitcoin bottom used to be a moment; now it's a zone. days $BTC spent in the capitulation band before leaving: 2015: ~60 2019: ~5 2020: 1 2026: 200+ and still in it

The most INSANE things the City of Austin is spending money on: $880,000 for “Undoing racism training” $2.25 MILLION to help minority and women-owned businesses get city contracts $6.6 million+ On deportation defense, lawyers and filing fees for migrants An extra $1.2 MILLION to the Texas Harm Reduction Alliance, which hands out needles, glass pipes and cookers to drug addicts $6.2 million+ for Austin’s DEI department $58,000+ on a consultant to work on “preventing crime through environmental design” $1 MILLION to redesign the Austin city logo (which everyone hated) Roughly $485 MILLION on the homeless crisis since 2019. Reminder, that MILLIONS have been cut from the Police Department, Fire Dept and EMS to make up for budget shortfalls… Shoutout to @data_atx and @AustinJustice for helping compile all of this data:

Try it for yourself! I asked a local bank for 4k to pay a contractor and the bank manger started negotiating with me saying,”I can give you 2k!” I had to haggle him to 3k but it still wasn’t the 4k needed.

HYPOTHETICALLY… IF I BOUGHT MY HOUSE FOR $125,000 IN 2002 AND THE COUNTY NOW SAYS IT’S WORTH $487,000, WHERE DID I ACTUALLY MAKE $362,000? Did I sell it? No. Did I receive $362,000? No. Did somebody hand me a check for the new assessed value? Obviously not. But my property taxes still go up because, on paper, my house is suddenly worth hundreds of thousands more. That’s the part that doesn’t make sense to me. This isn’t income. It isn’t cash sitting in my bank account. It’s a number someone assigned to my property, and now I’m being billed based on that number. If my stock portfolio doubles but I don’t sell, I haven’t turned that gain into cash. If my salary stays the same, I don’t suddenly owe more income tax because someone thinks I’m worth more. So why does owning a home work differently? WHY AM I PAYING TAX ON A GAIN I NEVER REALIZED? A house isn’t just an investment. It’s where people live. You can pay off the mortgage, own the property outright, and still face a bigger bill every year because the value of the house went up on paper. At some point, you have to ask what “owning” something actually means if the cost of keeping it can keep rising because of money you never received. THIS ISN’T ABOUT WHETHER THE HOUSE IS “WORTH” MORE. IT’S ABOUT BEING CHARGED FOR VALUE YOU NEVER TURNED INTO CASH. And people are starting to notice.

My new website is live! Come check it out and leave honest feedback. There is a free Bitcoin Bible study to study the intersection between what the Bible says about money and Bitcoin’s properties More will be added in the future, so share and join the newsletter (never spam)

🦔Researchers at Northeastern University and Consumer Reports tested 21 cars from 19 brands sold in the US. Every single one sent data to at least one third party. Seven companion apps sent vehicle identification numbers, phone numbers, and precise GPS locations to ad networks. Tesla's Model 3 contacted 71 advertising and tracking domains between the car itself and its infotainment apps. My Take Nineteen out of nineteen brands... I don't even know what to say to that. Not a single manufacturer sold a car that kept your data to itself. And a VIN follows you for the life of the vehicle. You can't change it. Pair that with your phone number and your GPS coordinates and a data broker doesn't need to guess who you are or where you go. Honda sent precise location data to Amplitude for years. Researchers emailed them about it and Honda fixed it in one email. One email. They could have stopped it anytime and they chose not to until someone called them on it. GM got fined by the FTC and kept collecting. Ford got fined for burying the opt-out and kept collecting. You pay $48,000 for a new car on average and the manufacturer treats your location history as a bonus revenue stream they never told you about. I think within a few years your insurance company will buy your speed and location data straight from the automaker. Some already do, but soon they won't ask first. Hedgie🤗

Enough is enough. If the government wants to search you, they can't just buy the data. They need to get a warrant, like the 4th Amendment intended. SurveillanceAccountability.c…

BREAKING: US job openings dropped -256,000 in August, to 7.08 million, their lowest level since March. Available vacancies have now declined by -506,000 since April. The decline was driven by real estate and rental and leasing job openings, which fell -62,000, to 47,000, their lowest since September 2015. Since January 2025, job openings in this sector have plunged -144,000. Furthermore, job openings in manufacturing and construction declined -54,000 and -48,000 last month, respectively. As a result, there are just 48,000 more available vacancies than unemployed workers, down from 419,000 in July. The Fed cannot ignore the weak US labor market.

Hot Take - Adam Back will be remembered by bitcoin history as a bigger fraud than Craig Wright natinfosec.substack.com/p/fr…

The US is fucked... they can't fight inflation. What enabled Volcker to kill inflation by hiking rates aggressively was debt-to-GDP being at just ~30%. Today, we are at over 100% and running $2T deficits... This means all that rate hikes accomplish is increasing the deficit and thereby increasing inflationary pressures. In other words, it doesn't matter whether we get a hike or a cut... the result will be inflation. The reason debt to GDP was so low during the Volcker era was because the US had inflated the debt away after WWII. I expect history to rhyme. We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.

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JUST IN: America's largest #1 investment advisor, Ric Edelman just said he recommends a #Bitcoin allocation of up to 40% for his clients. "A 1% or 2% allocation is way insufficient. We need to increase our allocations." "We've got the market performance on our side." 🔥

Fed Chair Warsh: "The Fed's role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed." The Fed:

Researchers proved AI has deleted every reason universities exist. Harvard University ran a controlled experiment pitting a custom AI against their own top-tier classrooms. And the results are going to collapse the higher education bubble. They took 194 undergraduates and split them up. One group learned physics in one of Harvard’s best hands-on, active-learning physical classrooms. Group work. Instructor support. The premium university experience. The other group went home and learned the exact same material with an AI tutor. The AI didn't just win. It embarrassed the institution. Students using the AI learned more than twice as much as the students in the elite Harvard classroom. They scored 30% higher on the final assessment. And they did it in less time. Let that sink in. A piece of software sitting on a laptop outperformed a world-class faculty in one of the most elite learning environments on Earth. Universities have always justified their exorbitant tuition with two things: access to elite knowledge and the physical classroom experience. This study just proved both of those moats are gone. When software can teach you complex physics twice as well as a $60,000-a-year institution, the math of higher education breaks permanently. The AI didn't just give the students answers. It used strict pedagogical guardrails. It guided. It questioned. It forced the students to do the cognitive work. It offered perfect, one-to-one tutoring, personalized to the exact moment a student misunderstood a concept. That level of attention is mathematically impossible to scale in a physical lecture hall. For a thousand years, the university was the only place to get a premium education. Now, it’s the bottleneck. If AI can double your learning speed for a fraction of the cost, what exactly are students taking on decades of debt to pay for?

Study this. Perhaps 1 in 500 commit 10% or more of their wealth into Bitcoin. Of those perhaps 3% understand the power law sufficiently. That has R2 = 0.96 explanatory power in log-log space. That is 1 in 15,000. Of that refined group perhaps 5% get the log periodicity which is the other side of the scale invariance coin. And PL + LP raises the combined R2 to 0.98. And provides better Insight into bubbles and troughs. You can be 1 in 300,000. And the understanding you develop of power law and log periodicity enhances your confidence in allocating over 10% to Bitcoin and HODLing long term. @ScientificBTC