L/S Equities - Options for my own accounts all opinions are my own and should be taken as satire *nothing is financial advise that I share/write

United States
Yikes: The Giants now have a LOWER chance of winning the NFC after trading for JJ McCarthy, according to Polymarket. McCarthy could be the worst QB in the NFL 🤦‍♂️
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Me after sleeping on the uncomfortable couch in the hospital after my wife gives birth
wok
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Dad’s when their wife gets home and they had to watch the kids solo for over one hour.
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September 19, 1994: Lions beat the Cowboys 20-17 in OT in a wild #MNF thriller. Barry Sanders 40/194 Emmitt Smith 29/143 1 TD
This Day In Sports Clips
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Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source. Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them: Nebius Iren Baseten Together Fireworks
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). (Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
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The first 15 minutes of the 2008 market crash caught live on TV.
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Jason retweeted
It’s an unfair comparison and way too early but… Jeter and Lombard Jr 😭
I have a video that I probably shouldn’t post…
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Who comes up with these 😂 Writer: Ian
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Fauci refuses to answer a simple question 😭
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Cam Schlitter has a 1.08 ERA and 99 K in 13 road starts this season. He's the only MLB pitcher (since ER became official in 1913) with a 1.08 ERA or lower and at least 99 K in their first 13 road starts of a season.
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Rob Friedman
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oh good i almost wasn’t getting fucked enough today
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Wild "Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX, have issued a record $182 billion in investment-grade bonds so far in 2026. This marks a +1,300% increase from ~$13 billion over the same period in 2025. As a result, these 6 firms account for nearly 15% of total US corporate bond issuance year-to-date and over 50% of this year's growth in corporate bond issuance."
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GM This post encompasses my current thoughts on the market $SPX and the basis for my inclination to lean toward a quick and big selloff - in unorganized stream of consciousness form: The next 2-4 weeks has potential for a big move in either direction imo. At the moment I'm not super confident in which direction, but I give the edge to downside, and that'll be explained below. As usual, I'll be posting some of my real time thoughts and leans and ideas here as my bias evolves, so keep my notifications on. The thoughts and views in this post are almost guaranteed to change / adapt with new MGI. I believe we can see a swift -5%+ capitulation from here at $SPX 7500/7600 to around $SPX 7120-7140 before July Mopex (imo, next few days would be likely) followed by maybe a classic American Dynamism V-shape bald-eagle screech to NATH ... or maybe we just keep selling after that to (?) SPX 62XX-66xx. This is pulled out of my ass, but to me, when i throw out all saving-face public skepticism & expressions of disclaimers of my expectations of extreme outcomes, this feels actually realistic to me. Keep in mind, a -5% sell in a few days is by definition not likely as it's an outlier scenario, so to time this is realistically unrealistic. Don't @ me if I'm wrong because it's likely I am. Some notes and opinions in no order: 1. This continues to feel like a war of attrition between passive seller & PPT/forced/inorganic buyer. "PPT" can exhaust sell which enables upside headline risk, and in that case, the reaction to the reaction is what's gonna matter to me (can the squeeze cause a real capitulation higher that sees a sustainable bid post-pop or does it just get absorbed like it has been for the past month?). 2. Thursday's 7/2 close was not as bullish as it might appear on the surface, to me. The nearly 1000 point NQ RTH sell we saw (and that I predicted here) felt less like a capitulation of buyers and more like the buy program was suspended and organic action took over. SPX closing a fraction of 1 bps positive in the final nanoseconds of the day is the cherry on top to support/validate my notion that the buying seems/feels/is manufactured, implying a purpose separate from the foundational primary and only directive of buyers assumed by auction theory (you know what i'm suggesting, lol). Despite 7/2 RTH finally printing the ES 7480 I've been whining about for the past week, the concept of reaction-to-reaction applies here. The reaction to trading 7480 was buyers defended, and yet the reaction to the reaction (the following move) barely got off the mat (stopped around 50% of day's range). You'd think finally trading a significant area that refused to trade for so long (implying unfair prices) would produce a more convincing intraday leg up [newton's 3rd law vibes] especially given the holiday context. Unrelated but we picked up 7480c 0dte at 25 cents and it went to 4 dollars in 45 minutes lol. 3A. Hypothetical - assuming my admittedly-tinfoil idea that recent buying is PPT/inorganic implies: A. general rules and mechanics of auction theory have little influence when the "machine" is on. This can make it (and has made it) frustrating to attempt to interpret because it adds multiple layers of assumptions and when assumptions compound the result is lack of confidence in my ideas. B. buy program can turn on/off at will, with no warning, which also implies it can turn on and stay on... for as long as it wants? 3B. If you assume the house (PPT, higher prices) always wins, then bet on the house, right? Yes, long term, that's the case, but having no time-frame for the definition of the binary outcome of the house winning (higher prices) = path dependency = house can lose within [arbitrary time frame] and still win in [arbitrary time frame +x time]. What if, for whatever reason, the assumed PPT turns off for 1 day? 2 days? 1 week? I would be inclined to think we would easily see consecutive days like 7/2 stringed together to create one dramatic move down. 4. 🚨VERY TIN FOIL🚨: The US has a vibes/hope epidemic. Vibes are produced and captured abstractly by young people, and right now, young people can't afford to live while boomers keep winning in every way as asset holders. This generation doesn't feel hopeful at all, and rightly so. The black box arbitrary un-spoken "planners" of the US (like illuminati type shit ((CIA...??)), you and i both know this function exists in some capacity), you know, the powers that be that make long term unspoken decisions behind the scenes that outlast and outlive administrations, need to deal with this problem sooner than later, or we'll risk consequences as a nation akin to what happens when you corner a typically-passive wild animal, which will topple the existing system. The easiest lever to pull to ensure a brighter future for America is the financial security of young people, and the lowest hanging fruit is sacrificing just a bit of boomer/rich-people/asset-holder's surplus of wealth because they can handle it. Boomers aren't really even stock-heavy at their age - I imagine the majority of them still have financial advisors doing nothing but balancing a 60/40 target. Raising rates could be a good way to do this (listen, I'm very naive to rates so someone chime in and correct me where I'm off base). That could cause boomers to sell finally providing an opportunity to millenials/early-gen z to pick up some assets. Boomers rotating into bonds would also provide the govt with revenue compensating for lower income tax revenues (june NFP 57k vs 100k, ~50% of total federal revenue comes from income tax). To be frank, if the directive is solely, purely, unilaterally "improve the lives of young Americans", then the trolly problem here has an easy answer with very little drawbacks. If you view any given modern period's zeitgeist as "planned" at least in some capacity, and the collective group-think toward particular groups/ demographics as one of the intentional result, it'd make sense to prop up the now universal idea that the 1% is the problem so that when it's needed, there's a lever to pull to produce collective "vibes" (hope) and ensure a future that continues to incentivize passive status quo traditional "workers", preventing any threat to the incumbent system of capitalism. This is an incredibly autistic post and maybe I wasted an hour writing this up when 2 weeks from now we'll probably just be SPX 8k, but hopefully at the least it's an entertaining read. The purpose of this is not to convince you to do anything in particular, I just wanted to put my thoughts out there. And again, to reiterate, I'm not confident in either direction within the time frame of these next 2-4 weeks. Of all the possible immediate scenarios, I currently lean most toward a swift and dramatic selloff (SPX 7120-7140) followed by either crazy bald eagle screeches V shape rip to ATH or continuing to sell for a lot lower. I also acknowledge that upside is now technically enabled and that if the machine stays on we can absolutely just go NATH directly from here. If you found this entertaining or valuable, leave a comment and share it because I spent a lot of time on it. Happy birthday to the greatest nation in the galaxy. GM, and HAGW all 💛 $SPX $SPY $QQQ
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The July 2026 market calendar, one image. A holiday-shortened, back-loaded month. It opens with June payrolls on Jul 2 (the last jobs read before the Fed), moves to CPI and the start of bank earnings on Jul 14, then Tesla and the chip names on Jul 22–23. The finale is Jul 29: the FOMC rate decision and $MSFT $META $GOOGL $AMZN earnings land on the same day. $AAPL follows Jul 30. Earnings peak Jul 19–Aug 1. $NVDA reports late August, not July. Full calendar below.
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HEDGE FUNDS SLASH U.S. EQUITY EXPOSURE TO RECORD LOW, TURN MOST UNDERWEIGHT SINCE DATA BEGAN
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oh there’s our little investor why dont you come down here and tell us how many bitcoins you have
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Jason retweeted
Greenspan is dead. This is the top.
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Jason retweeted
Okay good, now tell them I’m changing my name to Michael Seller.
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