Hedge fund PM, 20yrs US Rates trader, Pianist, Casual origamist, SOFR enthusiast ETH, punks, terraforms We all float Thoughts my own

New York
1-hour origami icosahedron time lapse. (30 units). Song = Reaction @btbamofficial
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Instead of taking the lobbying out of Washington, we’re brining the lobbying to Main Street !
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates." "Under the rules that took effect last week, charities controlled by wealthy people—with Treasury Department approval—can put individual stocks into the accounts of thousands or millions of children. They can target groups of at least 5,000, sorted by age, geography or both." via @RichardRubinDC @ashleaebeling wsj.com/politics/policy/trum…
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The thing is, since smart ideas are failing catastrophically, maybe we should learn something here 😂
SOFR Swaps Say the Fed Will Cut. When Will the Bond Vigilantes Notice? The swap market has been signaling Fed cuts, not a durable higher-for-longer regime. A swap spread is simply the difference between the fixed rate in a SOFR interest-rate swap and the yield on a same-maturity Treasury. With the 2-year SOFR swap spread at minus 14.55 basis points and the 5-year spread at minus 29.10 basis points, swap fixed rates sit below Treasury yields, reinforcing the market’s expectation of lower future overnight rates. The 5-year SOFR swap market never substantiated the higher-for-longer narrative. It has instead priced a Fed that cuts rates and keeps the average policy rate lower over the next five years than Treasury yields alone imply. When will the bond vigilantes look at the swaps market?
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Bonds across the curve reversing NFP moves because fuck you that's why
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A lot of focus on US treasury yields. Seems like the absolute implosion of French debt spreads has been going under the radar
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I need to make a very PUBLIC announcement on behalf of younger GenXers and older Millennials. If you see someone in their 40s or 50s who seems a little boring now, I need you to understand something... We already got it in. Like...GOT. IT. IN. We are not sitting home on a Friday night because we never knew how to have fun. We are sitting home on a Friday night because we have seen enough. We went to parties in houses that should have been condemned and were almost certainly owned by the local drug dealer. We saw police lights and RAN and not across a nice, flat field. INTO THE WOODS. Do you understand the athleticism required to hurdle uprooted tree roots in platform shoes while simultaneously trying to keep your low-rise jeans from sliding completely off your ass? And somehow...we never spilled the Zima. We never spilled the Boone’s Farm. That was TALENT. We slept on floors in strange houses because the designated driver either never showed up or, in a shocking turn of events, was drunker than everybody else. There was no Uber, Life360 or Find My Friends. There was just somebody named Mike saying, “I know a shortcut.” And we FOLLOWED MIKE. We closed down bars and then decided the night was still young, so we drove to Atlantic City, where we somehow managed to get drunk, sober up, get drunk again, sober up again and then get drunk a THIRD TIME before breakfast. And according to our parents? We were at Michelle’s house. Eating pizza and watching movies. Michelle’s mother unknowingly covered for approximately 17 people every weekend. If there even was a Michelle. We drank things called Purple Passion, Mad Dog 20/20 and whatever somebody mixed inside a giant plastic garbage can. Nobody asked what was in it. You grabbed a red Solo cup and trusted the process. We went to clubs until the lights came on. Do you know the psychological damage of seeing a nightclub with the LIGHTS ON? Nothing good happens after those lights come on. We danced for four straight hours in shoes that permanently altered the structure of our feet. We made entire plans without cell phones...no texts, dropped pins or group chats...just an extremely questionable sense of direction. We rode in cars with 11 people when the vehicle legally seated five. Someone was always sitting on someone. Someone was always in the hatchback. And there was always one friend yelling, “DUCK!” when we passed a cop. So yes...now we like being home. We like sweatpants. We like cancelling plans. We like saying, “That sounds fun!” with absolutely no intention of attending. We like restaurants at 5:30 because we can get a good table. We like being home by 8:17. And if someone texts at 9:30 PM and says, “What are you doing?” Sleeping...we are sleeping. Because this is not boring my friends...this is retirement. We already played, partied and danced on the bar. We already ran from the cops through a wooded area dressed like a Spice Girl. We have stories that cannot be posted because there are still people with careers, marriages and reputations to protect. And thank GOD there were no camera phones. So kids, when you look at your Gen X and older Millennial parents sitting peacefully on the couch watching Dateline at 8 PM and think: “God, you guys are boring.” Sweetheart...oh sweetheart. You are looking at retired legends. Put some respect on our names. We're probably the reason Life360 was invented. xoxoxo (posted from someone else on FakeBook) 🤣 #genx #oldandtired
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Jennzazen retweeted
Kevin Warsh: "I’m going to hike rates. You guys better get ready. I’m gonna do it!" The market:
Daily Wire
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Jennzazen retweeted
but they were, all of them, deceived, for another watch was made…
Sam Altman @sama just ordered 7 ultra-rare custom Swiss watches from Vanguart, fully branded with the OpenAI logo on the dial. One for him, six for his inner circle. Inscribed on the back of each watch is ‘if AGI.aligned: deploy()’ which was written in the programming language Python.VANGUART This is starting to be a trend in the tech world and I’m all for it — If your company wants customer branded Rolex or other watches shoot me a dm we specialize in bulk corporate orders with custom engraving and dial branding
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what are we even DOING here? this is insanity
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One day squeeze, then Crude ticking toward 95, and one-day flattening is now a full-on bear steepening with odds of sep hike likely to go up, weaker dollar (inflationary). 14bn wad of gum on the hoover dam......... Not to mention CAD tariff relief newly nuking cad fixed income. All part of the plan, right?
The buybacks are an additional 14BN of buying while the 10y/30y buckets are 10TRN in size. The move today in bonds was a stopout of popular steepener trades. Nothing more. Loose fiscal and loose monetary policy will continue to drive rates, not gimmicks.
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Just found an "I asked puzzledly" and it was an amazing release to remove the unnecessary adverb. We shall be unafraid when we write!
if you're thinking of 'writing' I highly recommend reading On Writing by @StephenKing It really feels like having a conversation with him and I feel like I'm elevating my work in concrete ways, but also appreciating the art in a new way. He didn't have to write it and I'm glad he did.
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if you're thinking of 'writing' I highly recommend reading On Writing by @StephenKing It really feels like having a conversation with him and I feel like I'm elevating my work in concrete ways, but also appreciating the art in a new way. He didn't have to write it and I'm glad he did.
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Jennzazen retweeted
In Germany, a talented 14-year-old earns his club money. In America, his parents pay the club $15,000 a year. That single inversion explains why "we will not" is the most accurate line ever written about US soccer. FIFA built a global system for this. Training compensation and solidarity payments send a cut of every transfer fee back to the clubs that developed the player, from age 12 onward. Develop one future pro and your academy gets paid for a decade. Barcelona's La Masia, Ajax, every Bundesliga academy runs on this logic. The kid is the asset. US Soccer refuses to enforce those rules. When Seattle's Crossfire Premier claimed its $60,000 share of DeAndre Yedlin's transfer to Tottenham, it got nothing. Claims on the Dempsey and Bradley transfers died partly because the federation couldn't even produce the youth training records. So American clubs earn zero dollars when a kid turns pro. They earn when a kid enrolls. Which makes the parent the customer, and the product is whatever keeps the parent writing checks: travel tournaments, hotel weekends, $500 showcase events, private training at $100 an hour. Elite pathways run $8,000 to $20,000 a year. A comparable academy spot in Italy costs about 120 euros. Follow the incentive one level deeper and it gets darker. A club dependent on fees can't cut its weakest paying players, so rosters optimize for retention over development. The scouting pool shrinks to families who can afford the cliff, which appears around age 11, exactly when development matters most. The country runs a talent filter sorted by household income instead of ability. Every four years someone proposes fixing this. The proposal always requires the people profiting from the $15,000 model to vote themselves out of business. They will not.
“And every four years when the World Cup comes around, we will say that we’d dominate if we had a stronger youth program.” “And will we develop a stronger youth program?” “We will not.”
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Tried to post more videos of nyc fireworks and got locked for posting nonconsensual nudity, glad to know the checks are working so well.
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The intense focus on Achilles and Helen in The Odyssey movie should slowly fade as people realize , this is The Odyssey not The Iliad, these are basically minor roles in The Odyssey. I would have thought it was cool to have Brad Pitt as Achilles in the underworld as an homage but he probably wouldn’t have wanted such a limited role.
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Reads like a usd swaps trader’s commentary to the t. Could mean everything or absolutely nothing, best not take any risk on it.
Replying to @NateSilver538
I’m not sure anyone does at this early time. A lot can change either way between now and the election. The seats lost in VA coupled with further R gerrymanders could plausibly determine who holds power. Or not matter a bit…
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Wen temu beef brothko @toadswiback
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I can’t believe this isn’t @toadswiback Endorsement with temu?
Order your snacks right here on Temu – what are you waiting for?
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Wen temu beef brothko
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. & Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump's 8pm deadline still looks like a long shot, four sources tell @MarcACaputo & me. Read out story on @axios axios.com/2026/04/07/iran-ne…
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