Value Investor. Cyclical Investor. Lifelong learner. Co-founder of Aurum Capital. Regularly featured on biz channels and publications.
Pune, India
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Link to most of my presentations, media and publication interviews.
aurumcapital.in/blogs/catego…
Everything at one place.
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Nasdaq not far from its high.
But one Nasdaq Q50 ETF has fallen almost 50% in last couple of days.
Why ?
NAV 120 Rs. Was trading at close to 300% premium to NAV.
Craziness. Why do people buy ETFs at such a premium. 🤔
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Almost a year since this space. Quiet a few sectors mentioned in this space have done well.
Fingers crossed.🤞
@AI_Feb21 @AI_June26
I did a space with Prince @AI_Feb21 last week. The topic was "Investing In Current Times". The link is the quoted tweet. Short summary here 👇
➡️Space was essentially for value investors
➡️Market kya lagta hain - I have no short term view. Correction is very healthy and though its always painful, its very much required. For LT investors, it's an opportunity. Markets still uncomfortable from overall perspective. Large pockets of overvaluation. Some are correcting. Others will. Excesses always get taken out over time. At the same time, there are always value buys in any market. One needs to dig deep. Currently most opportunities only in ignored, contrarian, temporary headwind sectors. Anything doing well is priced to perfection and beyond and offers very little margin of safety. Always benchmark your returns based on the risk you take.
➡️Uninvestable (3 parameters - management, balance sheet, valuation perspective. Any one parameter ticked makes the company uninvestible) companies in SME will be 95%, Microcap & Smallcap 80-90%, Midcap 70%, Largecap 50% .
➡️Am ready for a 30% fall in pf. But I believe most of what I have are tennis balls, which will bounce back. I essentially have a long-term bend and I am making investments with a 2-3-4-5 year horizon.
➡️Doing lot of work, meeting companies, making a list, as many companies are good but valuations are not in favor. On deep corrections, these can be looked at.
➡️Great companies invested at wrong time, can have huge impact on your pf. Opportunity cost of last 4 years golden period is lost if invested in these.
➡️Stay away from euphoria. In prev spaces had talked about Defence, Railways, SME, Microcaps, etc. Many stocks have corrected 40%. Same will happen in many theme-based stocks where valuations are out of whack. Some stocks are still unattractive even after 40% falls.
➡️Be careful of management guidance. Be extremely wary of managements which guide things like 100% CAGR growth till 2030
➡️Sectors I like - Financials, Cement, Paper, Energy, Sugar, select chemicals, select Building Materials, Real Estate
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My take on the MDR issue.
In principle, banks, payment aggregators, technology providers need to be paid as there is a cost attached to this. People forget that MDR charges on Visa, Mastercard, Amex is 2% or higher. And merchants absorb it.
I still think that govt should continue to subsidise MDR charges on UPI and continue to keep it free. As this helps in formalizing the economy, getting a digital trail and keeps on reducing cash usage. Cash also has a cost.
But to call it a tax, or providing misinformation on this is not right.
P2P remains free, MDR charges upto 2k remain free. There is a cap on fees.
In essence, it's not what it is made out to be. But, I would still urge the government to keep status quo. As benefits of subsidy are far higher.
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Jiten Parmar retweeted
On this sacred occasion of Kshamawani Parv, Michhami Dukkadam. 🙏🙇✨
On the joyous occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi, may Lord Ganesha bless you and your family with happiness, peace, good health, prosperity and success. 🙏🌺🎊
- Aurum Edge LLP family (formerly Aurum Capital)
@jitenkparmar @niteen_india
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Jiten Parmar retweeted
You cautious us when solar EPC/Panel makers were quoting at PE of 100/150/200, fast forward within 2 years, nobody is buying them at 10-12 PE.
Punch Line- Always measure returns on what amount of risk you are taking
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There is not only a K-shaped economy, but we are also in a K-shaped market.
Some sectors which are in a narrative frenzy are Defence, Capital Goods / Power T&D, Data Center Infra, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services), Railway Capex, Aerospace, to name a few.
Some sectors which are on other end are Private & PSU Banks, Non-Bank Financials (NBFCs), Chemicals, Infra and so on.
I think the first cohort can do very well growth-wise. The question to ask is, is it all priced in ? What is the multiple one is paying ? What are the operating cash flows ? What will be your exit PE if growth slows down?
Basically, what is the risk you are taking ?
Always measure returns on what amount of risk you are taking.
I continue to focus on companies where value is in favor, PEG is not out of whack. And there are enough opportunities available in the forgotten sectors/companies.
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Fantastic video. Must see. (It's in Marathi).
P. S. : Absolutely not against any festival celebrations. Just against the speaker walls.
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Met 17 companies in the last 4 days. One of them for the 2nd time and the only one I am invested in.
From the balance, liked a couple. But no margin of safety at current prices in those too. Will only buy if they correct substantially.
One observance. Promoters are becoming smarter by the day. They know what investors want to hear.
As an investor, one needs to be careful and take these with a pinch of salt.
One needs to be extremely selective.
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Amazed at the opportunities available for companies.
In the end, it's all about seizing these opportunities and executing.
Happy to see the hunger and zeal in entrepreneures to grow.
Heart feels with joy when we see them executing and often happy to be part of that journey as investors.
Passion makes us also work hard, invest and also guide these companies many times.
These days, we have been meeting multiple companies and traveling consistently.
Sometimes, the hard work also comes with its own rewards, some superb food, fresh fruits, and plenty of interesting conversations along the way! 🙂
But what gives us even more confidence is what we see on the ground.
The growth numbers of these companies are telling a much bigger story about how rapidly India is growing. These are not just stories or numbers on a spreadsheet, they are reflections of real growth happening on the ground.
Small and emerging companies are getting organized, coming into the formal system, finding the right scale, becoming increasingly competitive, and accessing growth capital to expand.
Watching this transformation firsthand, and listening to the entrepreneurs driving it, is both fascinating and encouraging.
Enjoying these conversations immensely, and feeling increasingly optimistic about the bright future we see ahead for India. @jitenkparmar
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Jiten Parmar retweeted
"Overall, as I said earlier, around 5% growth is definitely there. Anything higher than that is in doubt... Up to 5%, growth is certainly happening in the country."
Look at that, a whole 2.6% to 5% jump in 24 hours!
At this rate, Subhash Chandra Garg will hit 7% by tomorrow afternoon, 12% by the weekend, and solve world hunger by Monday.
Masterclass in goalpost moving.
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Jiten Parmar retweeted
As expected, with the fiscal headwinds fading and monetary headwinds (falling credit growth till 1HFY26) becoming tailwinds (credit growth accelerating), GDP growth is surprising on the upside, and should help push up consensus trend-growth estimates to 7%-plus. That is, with a neutral fiscal and monetary policy, the economy should still register 7.5% growth.
In this light, I was shocked to see the ill-educated and egregiously wrong claims made by some that if the 'original' base of June-2025 quarter was used, growth in the June-2026 quarter would be much lower.
The new series introduced in Feb-2026 cleaned up the data and also significantly improved the methodology. For those who track this for a living (and I used to be one such till 45 days ago) - the downward revision in the base was known in March (see our note published on 1-Mar):
research.axiscapital.co.in/R…
As our note acknowledged, the new series increased credibility of estimates of real output.
That claim is so obviously wrong that several logical rebuttals have already been made. But bad information tends to travel further than good information, and so it is important to reiterate and reinforce the argument.
That such claims got traction is itself surprising, given that easy-to-track and not-possible-to-fudge indicators of economic activity have been so robust. While June-quarter data was strong, that momentum has picked up:
- personal vehicle (cars, SUVs) dispatches grew 35% YoY in August despite just 9% growth in exports. Even two-wheeler growth is now >20% (though helped by strong exports).
- And if that was consumption, commercial vehicle dispatches grew >40%.
- tax collection growth has picked up meaningfully. This is as real as it gets.
- Credit growth continues to surprise on the upside (albeit on a low base). Last year most believed the then-weak credit growth was a demand problem, whereas we steadfastly stated it was a supply issue - it has for now been addressed.
- indicators of construction are robust.
Hopefully, now there will be fewer people asking "why private sector investment is weak," given that there is clear evidence of investments.
That said, there is still slack in the economy, as seen in weak real-wage growth. It may take several quarters of above-trend growth for that slack to tighten, and bring back sticky inflation pressures.
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This is good. India is making strides in semiconductors too. Kudos.
financialexpress.com/busines…
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Do watch Operation Safed Sagar on Netflix.
On Kargil war.
Happy independence day to all.
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There is only so much one can explain in a twitter post.
Best will be to see this video of a presentation I did recently at @Bharat_Nivesh forum.
piped.video/watch?v=G5J6rzYm…
Sir we need elaborated post on your understanding of market cycles
It’s only the market cap wise u decide the cycles of even sectors wise or more
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