In February the account in the screenshots below posted a chart to 400,000+ viewers with three claims: the government “quietly publishes the net fiscal contribution of different ethnic groups”; Whites are “the only group to make an overall fiscal contribution”; and Whites are “paying a big financial cost to create Multiracial Britain”.
All three claims are misleading
The NW Natur account posts mainly about the falling White British share of births, “non-European” migration and preserving the “historic European” character of the population. Its outlook is far-right ethno-nationalist, and this chart reflects that argument.
The government publishes nothing quietly here, and it doesn’t publish these numbers at all. Two days later the account admitted
@ONS presents this data as the effect of taxes and welfare on each group’s income, and that he had inverted it himself.
The source is Table 23 of an ordinary ONS release, put out openly last September. When someone asked ONS for this exact figure in April, ONS said it would have to be specially created.
It is also not an “overall fiscal contribution”. The data covers only the taxes and spending a household survey can assign to households, for one year. It comes from about 4,200 households across the whole UK. The Mixed and Other bars rest on a small share of them, and no margins of error are shown.
Too many people find it hard to understand that ethnicity and immigration are different things.
The Asian, Black and Mixed bars include millions of people born and raised in Britain. The White bar includes migrants from Europe, America and elsewhere. So the chart can’t tell you the cost of “creating” anything.
“Benefits” here includes the
#NHS and state schools. A young family with children in school counts as “receiving” thousands a year in education. That money is spent on the next generation of taxpayers.
The account anticipates the age objection: the White group is older, and the figures include pensions and the NHS. Fair enough. Age pushes the numbers in both directions. But that’s exactly why the chart can’t tell you what ethnicity does. Each bar blends age, employment, pay and family size, and the groups differ on all of them.
In the 2021 Census the median age was 43 for White people, 32 for Asian and Black people, and 19 for people of Mixed ethnicity. Unemployment among people identifying as African, Caribbean, White and Black African, and White and Black Caribbean was just over twice the national rate. Unemployment and low pay mean less tax, whoever you are. The chart takes those differences and labels them by race.
And it’s a single-year snapshot. Most people take out more than they pay in at some stage of life, as children, as young parents and in retirement. One year shows where people are in life. It can’t show what they contribute over a lifetime.
What the evidence actually shows:
ONS’s own figures show that 53.3% of ALL people in the UK live in households that received more than they paid in a single year. Being a “net recipient” is the norm, whatever your ethnicity.
Oxford’s Migration Observatory finds that a person’s age, job and earnings are the main factors that decide their fiscal contribution.
It also reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility has generally found higher net migration REDUCES deficits and debt in the short to medium term, because migrants tend to be of working age.
AND it finds that a migrant arriving at 25 and earning average wages makes a BIGGER lifetime contribution than a British-born worker on the same pay, because Britain didn’t pay for their childhood or schooling.
Strip away the colours and the borrowed authority, and the chart shows that households with lower pay, less work and more children pay less tax in a given year. Big fucking deal. That’s a story about income, employment, and life stage.
It does NOT show that one ethnic group pays for another, and it says nothing about recent immigration. But that doesn’t stop anonymous far-right accounts (like the one below based in Poland) posting it as though it means something about immigration, ethnicity, or “race”.