Just a little goblin looking for the golden pot sharing information, discussing opinions, trading US and EU shares & options. No recommendations #DYOR

Wolfe with a pretty bullish takeaway for opticals from ECOC Conference, especially $LITE $FN and $CIEN but they are also talking about $META scaling in new dimensions of multi-rail amplifiers
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„We don’t yet understand what this system does, …“ Perfect
Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR. We don’t yet understand what this system does, but only a handful of known systems share its features, and all of them are able to cut, copy, and paste DNA. Historically, the discovery of such programmable systems has helped revolutionize medicine. CRISPR, for instance, is now the foundation of genetic medicines. But it will take much more work to learn what this system does, and whether it can be put to similar use. Read more: anthropic.com/news/claude-di…
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Goldman raises 2030 behind-the-meter power to 67GW from 40GW, with on-site gas and fuel cells potentially supplying ~28% of US data-center power. Tracking different names for different subsectors today: $BE $FCEL e.g. for the fuel cells winning on speed-to-power part, reliability and 800 VDC compatibility $GEV e.g. for turbine scarcity $INIO $GNRC e.g. for fast deploying gas engines
Made with AI
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I think we might only talk about 1-3% of $AVGO ´s revenue as a reasonable risk zone with around 17% being the overall CN/HK shipment exposure (in revenue in 2025). The probe is just about the switches in state-controlled data centres (are there any others lol) which is only a fraction of Broadcom´s entire exposure over there.
China is pursuing full-stack hardware independence, including switches.
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So even the extreme scenario of 800VDC completely failing to materialize only cuts the $NVDA Rubin Ultra power-semi opportunity by roughly 28% ($1.3 bn / $4.6 bn) according to UBS estimates ... not being bullish on the power (-infrastructure) development is pure madness.
Houston, we have a plan: $NVDA ’s roadmap points toward 800VDC as the long-term architecture for Rubin-era clusters, with power conversion gradually moving away from individual racks and toward row-level and eventually facility-level systems. UBS sees Delta (2308.TW) as one of the biggest beneficiaries of that shift. The company is already shipping solid-state transformers in China and is beginning to position itself around the next generation of AI power infrastructure, including SSTs, fuel cells, cooling, and high-density power delivery - creating multibillion dollar revenue opportunities over time. Vertiv $VRT also came up repeatedly in the discussion. UBS views Vertiv as the early leader in row-level and facility-level power centers, with its 4.8MW-class solution positioning it well for the transition beyond traditional rack-based architectures.
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GWs doubling until 2030 ... Power goes brrrr
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Follow up from UBS on ASICs and CPUs moving to the center stage That´s what we call an estimates increase! $AMD $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META
Over the weekend X sentiment went super bullish on CPUs again after $INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted that Intel can only supply 50% of the CPU demand they’re seeing from Frontier model companies right now. Goldman now calculates CPU > GPU in short dated capex. So we do not only have a +ive Intel part but also a +ive $AMD readthrough from this overall development imo. Discl.: Long AMD today
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Over the weekend X sentiment went super bullish on CPUs again after $INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted that Intel can only supply 50% of the CPU demand they’re seeing from Frontier model companies right now. Goldman now calculates CPU > GPU in short dated capex. So we do not only have a +ive Intel part but also a +ive $AMD readthrough from this overall development imo. Discl.: Long AMD today
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AI Infra Summit $GOOGL takeaway: Hearing that Alphabet is evaluating UALink as an option for particular latency-sensitive inference workloads (in order to become less dependend on $NVDA ´s NVLink?)
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You don’t say
JUST IN: JPMorgan reportedly warns of an oil crisis
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Knockouttrader retweeted
Combine MTK winning $GOOGL TPU and Anth/OAI slowdown ($AVGO 1-2 and 3 customers) - we might see some selling in $AVGO today. According to Taiwanese supply chain rumors, Google’s 2028 TPU generation will consist of two chips: Humufish and Triggerfish. MediaTek is said to have won both design contracts. (h/t @jukan05)
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Follow up, Goldman d/g $FLNC as well "While backlog remains strong and the company is not seeing customer demand being an issue, costs related to shipment delays, cash flow concerns and the potential for a generally more subdued revenue outlook heading into FY27 give us more pause on the path of the stock from here – which we believe will remain under pressure – despite what appears to be a generally favorable backdrop for battery storage in the US."
$FLNC So we have the 6th guidance cut since FY2023, Baird already with d/g to underperform (new Streetlow PT of $3), RBC following with a PT of $4 (down from $15). This is no kitchen sink, this is just another disastrous print and I wouldn´t be too surprised to see the stock move towards the initial afterhour lows or even sub $7 to be honest.
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$FLNC So we have the 6th guidance cut since FY2023, Baird already with d/g to underperform (new Streetlow PT of $3), RBC following with a PT of $4 (down from $15). This is no kitchen sink, this is just another disastrous print and I wouldn´t be too surprised to see the stock move towards the initial afterhour lows or even sub $7 to be honest.
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*APOLLO MULLS RAISING SOFTBANK LOAN TO $9 BILLION FOR OPENAI BET Potential +ive readthrough for $ORCL ?
SoftBank's talks to raise a $6B margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake have reportedly stalled, and the stock is already down around 9% in Asia. SoftBank is now exploring alternative funding options. Negative xread for $ORCL: If lenders are becoming more cautious about lending against OpenAI-related assets, investors may start questioning the financing assumptions behind Stargate and future AI infrastructure buildouts. For Oracle, that could mean pressure on the AI narrative, delayed deployment expectations, and a lower valuation multiple even if underlying OpenAI demand remains strong. Expecting a bad day for Oracle - already short, but please dyor.
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Does this show China‘s competitiveness slowing down or does this just confirm the Deepseek-V4.1-Flash token efficiency?
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Rosenblatt‘s take on $META ’s Muse
Wolfe sees Muse as a $30 - $50B rev opportunity for $META
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Goldman following UBS here! I fully agree with the +ive readthrough for $VRT and $ETN but also see some -ive implications for names like $WOLF or $NVTS and maybe even for names like $ENPH and $SEDG (n/t datacenter SST thesis becomes shaky)
$VRT $ETN positive read-through from Goldman's 800VDC expert call: 800VDC adoption is tracking slower than expected, with traditional datacenter power architecture likely staying relevant for much longer. For inference, GS says the main architecture change may be liquid cooling rather than a full power-stack redesign. $VRT: longer runway for existing power + thermal infrastructure, while liquid cooling demand keeps scaling. $ETN benefits too from a slower transition, with traditional electrical equipment staying in the mix while SST remains future optionality. Could be a nice incremental positive for both names.
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$AMZN AWS getting more 3nm capacity and higher priority "AWS's larger Annapurna tape-outs have lifted its priority in TSMC's 3nm and CoWoS allocation. AWS continues to move its in-house chips into new generations, with partners including Alchip and Marvell, and it has recently added Qualcomm. As demand for in-house chips rises, AWS's demand for TSMC 3nm capacity is also increasing."
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