My everything account. Ex -global equity PM . My snide mkt, econ & political comments - @NC798322.

South Burlington, VT
Private sector lack of capex bodes poorly for future growth
Data centers are booming. All other private construction is shrinking.
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Student still need credit counseling, they sign on the line for loans with knowing their likely payment schedules nor any idea about what their after tax incomes are likely to be.
The biggest scam of my generation was convincing 18 year old kids to sign hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans to get meaningless degrees. Everyone should be cheering for this. No more loans for basket weaving.
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I agree. Congress writes the tax code, so various groups have a say. Unfortunately big money has bought off Congress so it will be difficult haul to get it reformed.
No, actually I’m suggesting a healthy political debate about taxation would understand that taxes create incentives for things that we want more of or less of in society. That’s the purpose of a representative government. I have debates about this exact topic not to sell it off to those who can pay for it.
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The K shaped economy. Those who are affluent have money to spend, those who don’t are loading up on credit. Wages aren’t rising so the squeeze on the middle class and working class is going to get worse. Christmas season ought to be awful.
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Johnson is Trump’s poodle. House Republicans have the least convincing argument for Re-election than I have ever seen
Mike Johnson on what Republicans will do if they hold the House: "What we would do in the next two years is exactly what we have been doing already"
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Rate of change in S&P earnings X- mag 7 has peaked. What does that mean for the market. The eps growth for the Mag 7 certainly peaked in 1q26 because of extraordinary items. What does this mean for the market going forward. The question is how fast the deceleration will be as 27
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2027 comps will be more difficult. The impact of higher fuel prices (esp diesel), higher interest rates ( ZIRP debt is now rolling over). Wage costs seem likely to rise unless we are heading into recession.
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Cede Note that a huge amount of corporate debt is going to come up for refinancing in the next year and one half. Rates now are significantly higher than they were when taken during ZIRP. I think the loans have to be rolled and can’t be extended. Another reason YOY earnings grow
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2);growth will slow.
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What happened to free choice both for borrowers and lenders. I suppose Trump’s dictum covers just gov’t loans and is backed by hard data. But who is to say most students won’t call themselves physics majors and end up majoring in art. Students change majors frequently and commi
The federal government is the very definition of the “predatory lender” when it comes to student loans…Trump is correct to curtail loans for non remunerative degrees…pssst…also, the cost for those degrees will adjust way lower…
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2) as late as possible. For example up until my senior year I had enough credits to major in history and economics. What about double majors. Seems to me the whole thing is unworkable. Students need credit counseling to understand payment commitments relative to expected Ear
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You do not notice what you don’t want to see.
I appeared in a December 2007 Bloomberg article discussing how #transparency was needed to prevent the worst of the crisis ... Prior to August 2007, I had been saying we were headed into a financial crisis as the level of opacity in the financial system meant investors would "run" when the valuation stories Wall Street told about opaque securities was called into question ...
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Low ROI investment boom. The last 30 years has been driven by a failure to invest in long term income generating assets but rather leveraging capital to achieved short term financial gains. Why economies cannot produce much of what they need. Capacity starved
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First of many!
Policyholders of a struggling life insurer sued its private equity owner, accusing Golden Gate of self-dealing and mismanaging PHL to the point that it now faces possible liquidation bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Oh so true - transactional thinking dehumanizes
"When efficiency becomes the supreme virtue of a culture, every aspect of human existence is forced to justify itself in terms of future payoff. Relationships are reframed as 'networking,' rest becomes 'recovery for better performance,' and nature becomes 'stress management.' This transactional lens strips the world of its intrinsic value, leaving nothing that is worth doing simply for its own sake. When everything must serve a purpose beyond itself, life becomes an endless treadmill of preparation, where no experience is ever allowed to be an end in itself." -Oliver Burkeman
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Trump is trying to buy votes in the election - only stupid and naive people fall for these empty promises time and time again. I wonder what kind of fee Trump is getting out of this
So let me get this straight. America First means a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa... built by Mesabi Metallics, owned by India's Essar Group. That's the Ruia family, whose late co-founder PM Modi personally eulogized, posting a photo of the two of them together. Backed by up to $10 billion in U.S. Export-Import Bank financing. We've seen this before.... in Minnesota, Essar promised 350 permanent jobs by 2014. By 2016 it had laid off almost everyone, sent construction crews home, and left the plant half-built. It went bankrupt, left the state owed $66 million in infrastructure money (only repaid on a payment plan years later), lost its state mining leases twice... and local contractors got paid 75 cents on the dollar. And this is all announced five weeks before the midterms. I'll give credit that the jobs would be in the US... Mesabi has 750+ construction workers in Minnesota, the mine just started operating, and the White House says the Iowa mill would support 1,700+ American jobs. But Essar has promised Minnesota jobs before. Seeing is believing. American workers, foreign owners. Make it make sense.
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Change the tax code
Yes -- use of tax-aware funds to generate ordinary losses & long-term capital gains is contrary to the purposes of the timing & character rules -- but Treasury has no one to blame for this other than itself. taxnotes.com/tax-notes-today…
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Could be..🤣🤣🤣🤣
"Financing of many companies in these sectors are tied to private credit and they could be quietly rotting beneath the surface" reuters.com/legal/transactio… @michaeljburry
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Everything PE touches turns to 💩. It should be regulated and it should have to come clean about all nonsaleable it holds and can’t sell off, supposed 35,000 properties. The 7 year loans that took during the ZIRP period are up for refi at much much higher rates. Stop PIKs and 2)
🦔Private equity owns 447 US hospitals. ER deaths rose 13% under PE ownership, per the Annals of Internal Medicine. Preventable adverse events jumped 25% after PE acquisition, per JAMA. Hospital assets fell an average of 24% within two years of a PE buyout, about $28 million per hospital that just disappeared. PE firms account for 7% of GDP but were behind 21% of all healthcare bankruptcies in 2024. Steward Health Care, once the largest private for-profit hospital system in the country, closed its safety net hospitals and went bankrupt. Twenty-five states have introduced 79 bills to address PE ownership of hospitals. My Take PE firms buy hospitals the same way they buy retail chains. Load them with debt, strip the assets, extract fees, and move on. The difference is when Eddie Bauer closes you find another jacket. When your hospital closes, the nearest ER is 45 minutes away and a stroke patient doesn't have 45 minutes. They buy the building, sell the land underneath it in a sale-leaseback, then bill the hospital rent on property it used to own. The debt payments eat whatever revenue is left. $28 million per hospital gone in two years while ER deaths climb 13% and infections double. Federal Medicaid cuts are projected to pull roughly $1 trillion out of the system over the next decade. These hospitals already run on margins so thin that one bad quarter can force a closure. I don't know how the ones still under PE ownership survive what's coming, and the communities that depend on them don't have a backup plan. Hedgie🤗
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2) and extensions as these deals are never going to work out. Such a scam of financial engineering!
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