why did i become a prediction markets maxi ? (opinionated take) ai will endanger capitalism, as the output of elite education with raw intellect will become globally available and cheap ai will endanger manual labor, as the human capital required for construction, mechanics, or even home chores will be priced at $1.50/hour with robots like tesla’s optimus my take? ai perfectly masters and replaces performance-oriented tasks (consulting, coding, manufacturing, trading, healthcare…), with entertainment and attention being the black sheep, or rather golden eggs here: “ai as the engine, and humans as the steering wheel” (@VitalikButerin ) a few years ago, prediction markets were sanctioned by the cftc, actioned through the fbi. today, every month polymarket and kalshi have billions worth of volume. tomorrow they will be bigger wrappers than the nasdaq and the collective “proof-of-stake” tool against a dangerously growing misinformation flywheel without a shred of doubt, those companies that master attention, put humans in the steering wheel and go with the users already are, will undoubtedly win the game DM if you are interested to be part of that new world

forget the patek philippes or private jets ultra wealth will be defined by the new “tax: exclusive” tag thanks openai

prediction markets roundup - kalshi asked the cftc for approval to offer margin (leveraged) trading on its event contracts, targeting qualified and institutional traders while excluding sports contracts - pew research reported that global monthly trading volume on kalshi and polymarket doubled in the span of two months to a record $53 billion, led by a massive surge in sports trading - high roller technologies announced a pivot from online casino gaming to launch a federally regulated prediction market platform with crypto​.com - public, the world’s first agentic brokerage, partnered with kalshi to launch ai agents that can trade prediction markets and automate portfolio strategies based on real-world event signals - the cftc issued a staff advisory warning that prediction-market "mention" contracts invite manipulation, spelling out what exchanges must show to list them which update stands out most?

if the next kimi k4 has ~4t parameters, local frontier inference is dead as a civilian dream before it even began help me understand how a $1,500,000+ gpu setup gives us ai sovereignty if we now need 4 terabytes of vram at home

enabling permissionless markets isn't just adding a create button. it's everything that has to work once anyone can create one. - every market needs clear rules and outcomes, without someone manually approving each one. - it needs to be tradeable from minute one, without the creator having to figure out liquidity. - it needs distribution, so it reaches the people most likely to have a position on it. - it needs to resolve instantly, even when thousands of markets are ending at once. - people need to trust the resolution without having to trust the person who created the market, and be able to audit the process all this while keeping the creator experience to a few clicks. only then can you truly unlock user generated markets at scale. that's what we've been building at @kash_bot. over the next few posts, i'll break down what's actually happening underneath that chat, and how we tackled each problem

if you've been wondering how telegram calls sometimes abruptly end when you press the iphone's side power button vs simply locking the screen, the following diagram will perfectly address those eternal inner questions:

prediction markets roundup - bernstein forecasted annual prediction market trading volumes to reach $10 trillion by 2035 as financial assets overtake sports - polymarket pressed european regulators to treat prediction market wagers as financial products rather than gambling - lebron james is reportedly earning about $15 million a year from his polymarket deal. nearly four times his salary with the 76ers - bmll technologies partnered with kalshi to bring its cftc-regulated event-contract data onto bmll's institutional platform for quant researchers and hedge funds - cathie wood's ark invest acquired over 126,000 shares of kalshi across three of its flagship etfs which update stands out most?

in an experiment, anthropic gave three agents conflicting instructions: migrate the same python backend into different languages. they started killing each other's processes and locking each other out. in some runs, they eventually apologised and asked a human to intervene. we wanted autonomous software engineers and got office politics with sudo access

there are 100+ techniques on central limit order books to wash trade, all extremely easy to execute and mostly costing $0 (or being even profitable, as now open interest / collateral can earn yield on-chain) a naive, imperfect solution to this problem would be to display exclusively: - market resiliency: if the clob doesn't replenish after a real trade clears it out, the fill was fake - taker-side execution slippage: if a $5k market order slips the price by 8% on a triple $ M volume market, then volume is fake those are my 2c on this matter, have a good day

local ai is pure job creation… just ask the fire department in a year with all those burnt closets

ask yourself how you'd function if your AI subscription disappeared tomorrow frontier labs already know the answer, and they're counting on it

one of the stranger things we found while testing our llm council: models could judge an answer differently when they knew which model had written it. we ended up anonymising the outputs. that matters when you are asking several models to check each other's reasoning. you want the criticism to be about the answer, not the name attached to it. a test i'd run on any council: keep the answer identical, change only the supposed author, and see whether the reviewer changes its mind. if it does, i'd want to understand that before giving its vote any weight.

is this even what people want?

prediction markets roundup - genius sports launched prediction․com to aggregate and compare event contract prices across major prediction platforms - kalshi is reportedly seeking to raise at least $750 million in a new funding round at a $40 billion valuation - kalshi's chief operating officer luana lopes lara was featured on the time latino leaders list as one of the most influential executives shaping finance and technology - world (worldcoin) launched "world money," a self-custodial finance superapp spanning 150+ countries with kalshi integrated alongside stripe and morpho which update stands out most?

what the future of entertainment looks like when agents have automated everything for humans

prediction markets roundup - polymarket named finance veteran warren jenson (former amazon cfo) as its chief financial officer, part of a leadership build-out as it fights to regain ground on kalshi - sydney sweeney took an equity stake in sports prediction market novig in exchange for a viral ad that drew an adult-content warning on x - kalshi is preparing to file with the cftc for 24/7 perpetual futures on us stocks including tesla, apple, and nvidia, extending its perps push into single-name equities - tema launched a prediction markets etf allocating 15 percent of its holdings to private shares of kalshi and polymarket - goldman sachs lifted its robinhood price target to $142, citing strong business momentum and the company's prediction-market expansion which update stands out most?

openai and anthropic finally agree to slow down american ai development america did not agree

visionary google saw this coming and decided to make gemini suck ahead of time

absolutely ridiculous to see a $500 ledger stax max out at 10 apps, blocking new updates for existing apps

is matrix multiplication still illegal if done in space? let’s see $SPCX

prediction markets roundup - the uk's financial conduct authority is reportedly in talks with operators about easing its six-year retail ban on prediction markets, potentially opening a major new market for the industry - college football's week 1 drove roughly $790 million in prediction market trading volume, led by $53.7 million on georgia tech colorado alone - polymarket launched a social group chat feature called squads allowing users to discuss markets and trade directly with friends - robinhood announced a multi-year agreement to route a selection of event contracts to crypto​.com's prediction market platform og while taking minority equity stakes in both companies which update stands out most?