“保住本金，不要归零”五要诀： 1.不要坐牢（包括不要冻卡） 2.不要爆仓归零（不要杠杆、合约） 3.不要闯红灯（包括自己开车也要注意） 4.不要熬夜猝死（不要熬夜盯盘肝白猝死） 5.币不要被盗被骗归零（包括不要借钱被骗、被电信诈骗、乱点链接）。

初创公司 往往团队是很重要的 尤其是ceo的能力 在tsla的历史上 如果没有musk 这公司真的可能黄了几次了 毫无疑问musk是那个亿里挑一的创业者 但是有一些公司 ceo和团队的光环效应并不需要那么强 比如茅台、可乐、支付宝、微信 其实大家对其ceo和其他高管都非常陌生 从股东的角度考虑 买入ceo不重要的公司其实是更安全的 在我以前买tsla并且持有的的过程中 总有人问一个重复问题 如果musk死了怎么办 其实就像你问早期的伯尔希尔 如果巴菲特死了怎么办 那只能凉（拌）了 我觉得crcl 是更接近茅台可乐支付宝微信这种企业 创业团队比品牌比 品牌知名度更高 搭建这个品牌也比组建这个团队更难 我的看法可能不正确 也只是我个人的感觉 稳定币还是成长赛道 你说如果有个musk这样的创业者 来干稳定币这件事会怎样 那可能市场格局也会有变数 好的企业和好的管理者是互相成就的 起码新的管理者不能添乱 比如茅台你起码别来个捣乱的ceo 他自己就不会有太大问题 crcl换cfo自然是有风险的 比如是不是可能换个差劲的人进来 所以市场还是以下跌来回应 但往后回顾crcl的高管换帅 我觉得这是个非常小的插曲 无关轻重其实

一个曾经帮助过我的房产经纪人近日突然过世，原因是她最近和丈夫去欧洲旅游休假，在某地品尝了生蚝，她丈夫吃了七个，她尝了一个，结果她感染了（Necrotizing fasciitis）噬肉菌，回美国后住院治疗，但是为时以晚，医生也无力回天，在切除了一些器官之后还是没有抢救过来。 最好远离生蚝。

Palantir CEO Alex Karp explains how to make yourself valuable when LLMs make general knowledge cheap: He starts from the premise that AI has already changed what knowledge is worth. "The thing about the commodity nature of LLM is it commodifies general knowledge." If a model can hand anyone broad, general information, that information no longer sets you apart. Karp says this matters most for one kind of person: the classically smart generalist. He uses Yale as his example, and he says he picks it because it's strong. "I like to pick on people who are strong. It's a very strong school." He still recommends the top schools: "There's a couple schools you should go to if you get into. Yale's one, Stanford's one. There's some schools you maybe should go to otherwise go to the cheapest school and come to [Palantir] or just come here." His point is that the degree alone doesn't protect you. General intelligence without specific knowledge does not hold up well: "If you are the kind of person that would have gone to Yale would have ear kind of classically high IQ um and you have generalized knowledge but it's not specific you're effed." So how do you become valuable? Karp's answer is to build deep, specific domain knowledge, the kind of practical ability that general knowledge can't stand in for. He gives concrete examples: "How do I actually bend the metal of the hull on a ship?" "How do I actually write a script that allows me to target terrorists..." "How do I put the cement in a factory with such precision that you can build a factory like it was built in Taiwan in America?" He also describes someone with only a high school diploma who can diagnose what's going wrong in a complicated device that would otherwise need a Japanese engineer to fix. Then he names the category plainly: "How do I do anything with deep specific particularly voca what's considered vocational training?" Karp says these are the people who will be rewarded: "Those people are going to make a a lot more money simply because you can turn it any way you want, but at the end of the day, within a relative rapid amount of time, you will get paid downstream of the value."

Sam Altman on one of the highest-return years of his career: no job, exploring his interests, and a lot of people who were nice enough to teach him things. "I read many dozens of textbooks. I learned about fields that I had been interested in. I didn't have any idea that they were all gonna come together in the way they did." "I learned a lot about nuclear engineering. AI was starting to work, so I learned a lot about AI. I learned about synthetic biology. I learned about investing." " I met people that were working on all sorts of different things who were nice enough to talk to me." "If I met someone interesting and it seemed good and needed help, I would just help them. And they would teach me stuff, or they would offer me the chance to invest in their startup later." "Out of all of it, almost all of it didn't work out. But the seeds were planted for things that worked in deep ways later." @sama w/ @CraigCannon (Nov 2018)

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说一个GPT没法告诉你的信息： 在前几个月，分析CRCL、USDC时，我头脑里的一个担忧（或者说我发现市场潜在的一个担忧），是：币安现在上面绝大部分稳定币都是USDT，而USDC跟COINBASE深度绑定，币安如果因为跟COINBASE的竞争关系，而疏远、打压、刻意不推广USDC，那么这对USDC长期发展不利。 现在币安这个1亿美元的战略投资CRCL信息公开，这个顾虑、担忧、潜在利空压制就不存在了。 你觉得这个基本面的跳变，价值几何？ 你觉得这个GPT没法分析出来的一手感悟，价值几何？

币安也在通过战略投资Circle、加大推广USDC的力度，来解决的跟下面第一个相关联的头疼问题。

就头疼程度而言： 1.Tether：一半的USDT在孙割的Tron上流通； 2. Circle：一半的储备利息收入要给Coinbase. 如果你是这两家的CEO，你觉得哪个更头疼？

币安投资 Circle 1 亿美元，金额不多，但象征意义很大 以前，稳定币都是由 Crypto 资产驱动的。但是这一轮，随着美股大规模上链交易，会持续拓展稳定币的发行量、交易场景。之前在讲币安美股的细节时也说过 (nitter.net/Sea_Bitcoin/status/206…)，用户可以用各种代币买美股，但本质上是在用 USDC 结算 尤其是对机构来说，使用 USDC 几乎是唯一选项。而 CRCL 是人们在美股市场能买到的唯一稳定币发行公司，它的独特性还在增强。之前我说 CRCL 的网络效应不够强 (nitter.net/Sea_Bitcoin/status/207…)，是横向与 Social Networking 相比，但这是不公平的。这个认知错误，让我错过 $60 重仓 CRCL 的机会 除了稳定币发行量，这一轮要重点关注的另一个维度，就是美股整体上链的渗透率。前两天我大概算了个账 (nitter.net/Sea_Bitcoin/status/210…)，目前也就是 30/769000 = 0.0039% 而已，距离 1% 都还有几百倍空间，一切才刚刚开始 再来看看币安和 Circle 的合作细节：双方签了 5 年新协议，币安在平台推广 USDC，Circle 按 USDC 持有量比例，向币安支付月度激励费用 —— 可以预期，币安平台内，会有更多高息 USDC 理财活动。比如去年的这种 nitter.net/Sea_Bitcoin/status/195…, 作为散户，各家稳定币发行商多些竞争，跟着吃点肉的机会就越多