What if the hoes scaring me?

I keep coming back to whether compute markets are an investable category or mostly riding temporary excitement around AI. The Blackrock article got me thinking... The bear case is that compute should get much cheaper over time. Early rail travel was expensive because the infrastructure was scarce and expensive to build out. Over time, more railways were built and transportation became much cheaper. Compute may follow a similar path: GPUs are expensive today because demand has grown faster than supply, while power, data centers, networking and chips remain constrained. But hardware keeps improving, models keep getting more efficient and more capacity is being built. That should make a given amount of intelligence much cheaper. Tasks that required an expensive frontier model a few years ago can increasingly be handled by smaller models at a fraction of the cost. If that continues, generic compute starts to look more like a commodity. That creates a pretty credible bear case for many compute markets: - scarcity premiums shrink as supply catches up - GPU hours become easier to source and harder to differentiate - more inference moves onto phones, laptops, cars and other local devices - large cloud providers continue building their own capacity If a marketplace works mainly because someone desperately needs an H100 this week and cannot find one elsewhere, I would be skeptical of the long-term economics. That feels more like monetizing a shortage than owning something durable. The part I am less sure about is whether cheaper compute actually leads to less spending on compute (the reverse should be true via Jevons paradox). Historically, lower computing costs tend to create much more usage. Storage became cheaper and we started saving everything. Bandwidth became cheaper and the internet moved from basic text pages to people streaming video for hours every day. AI could follow the same pattern...if the cost of running an agent falls 90%, a company will probably deploy far more agents and have each one do much more work. This gets especially interesting because software can consume compute at a rate humans cannot. A person might make a few dozen requests to an AI product in a day. An agent could make thousands of model calls while completing a single job, continuously checking information, testing different outcomes and retrying work without anyone sitting there prompting it. So you can have compute getting much cheaper while total demand keeps growing. The price of a unit of compute can fall dramatically while the number of units consumed rises even faster. If that happens, compute markets do not necessarily disappear. The stronger businesses may be the ones solving harder problems around compute: finding large blocks of capacity when they are needed, matching different workloads to the right machines, keeping hardware highly utilized or giving customers reliable performance across different providers. There is also a chance the bottleneck just moves. Today everyone talks about GPU shortages. A few years from now, GPUs could be much easier to get while power becomes the scarce input (h/t Ribbit). Then the valuable asset may be a data center with a large grid connection. Compute has much less obvious limits because cheaper intelligence can create entirely new uses. If compute becomes 100x cheaper, companies can afford simulations that make no economic sense today. Agents can work continuously instead of being used occasionally. Software can make decisions and transact far more frequently than people do. There are still plenty of ways this thesis can be wrong: - better algorithms may reduce compute needs faster than new demand appears - small local models may take a large amount of work away from centralized data centers - some tasks may reach a point where more intelligence has very little economic value - large cloud providers may also capture most of the market themselves. If cheaper compute leads to far more volume and the marketplace has something harder to replicate than access to GPUs, it might be a much more durable business. Until I see that, I remain skeptical. DMs remain open if you want to prove me wrong!

RT @mcstardently: Important.

HEAT (1995) - FRAME 1995

INT 🚨 Cam Hart picks off Kirk Cousins! LVvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+ Stream on @NFLPlus

Claude Mellan's "Face of Christ" was created with a single line Using a single continuous line that spiraled from the top of Christ’s nose and expanded outwards Claude Mellan was able to create the ‘Face of Christ’, 📸:getty

Sofi is legitimately the worst banking provider ever conceived idk why I fell for the scam

status is one hell of a drug

Jaxson Dart in win over Cowboys 79.3% Comp Pct (career high) 230 Pass Yards 3 Pass TD (ties career high) 134.2 Pass Rating (career high)

mes tweets un peu techniques sont pas super evidents à comprendre pour tout le monde alors je vais tenter de vulgariser au mieux pour expliquer toute la comedie qui se joue autour de l’IA en ce moment sachez déjà que nous assistons probablement à la + grande manipulation tech de notre epoque car quand je vois les dirigeants des plus grands labos de la silicon valley reclamer soudainement une pause et demander des exemptions aux lois antitrust au nom de la securitée globale je pense que nous devons regarder exactement la où ils veulent detourner notre attention mettez vous en tête que ce spectacle pseudo ethique masque une panique financière tres concrete face aux miliards engloutis dans des supercalculateurs dont les rendements sessoufflent combinee à la terreur dexposer ces pertes dans leurs prochaines formulaires d’IPO (entrée en bourse) puis je trouve que la methode brille par son cynisme sils estiment sincerement que leurs modeles non publies representent un danger ce duopole (Anthropic /openAI) possede deja toute la latitude pour freiner ses propres deploiements sans demander la permission a quiconque au lieu de cela ils nomment leurs propres organismes dévaluation soi disant independants comme METR en y placant leurs anciens employes et investisseurs & réclament une exemption antitrust officielle pour s’entendre sur le rythme de l’innovation en cherchent à substituer un tampon bureaucratique à leur responsabilite civile réelle comprenez que leur demarche vise avant tout a imposer leurs propres controleurs à des concurrents qui ne sont meme pas à la frontiere technologique… perso je pense que le calcul geopolitique qui se cache derriere ce recit s’avère tout aussi bancal car prétendre limiter le progrès aux seules nations alignées sous couvert de coordination entre democraties pour maintenir une avance artificielle relève de l’illusion pure dites vous que pendant que la silicon valley redige des chartes morales pour preserver ses rentes, verrouiller le marche americain et criminaliser la concurence exterieure, les laboratoires chinois optimisent leurs algorithmes tirent parti dune energie abordable et distribuent la puissance de calcul a une fraction du cout occidental, les batisseurs a lautre bout du monde avancent et construisent pendant que les geants americains debattent dun cartel sur mesure de même je pense que l’erreur fondamentale de ces acteurs reside dans la confusion entre la fin de leur monopole et la fin de la civilisation sachez que de l’invention de l’imprimerie au deploiement de la cryptographie moderne les pouvoirs centraux ont toujours qualifie la democratisation des outils de la pensée de menace pour lordre public le problème pour eux cnest que l’intelligence artificielle depasse la notion d’actif prive enfermé dans des coffres forts d’entreprise, elle simpose comme une propriete fondamentale de la matière et du calcul & vouloir rationner le code par decret administratif revient à tenter de breveter les lois de la physique je pense que l’avenir appartiendra inévitablement aux protocoles ouverts au calcul souverain et à l’inférence locale car la veritable resilience d’une societe emerge directement dun systeme immunitaire décentralisé ou des millions dutilisateurs inspectent, eprouvent et ameliorent la technologie en temps reel loin de la stérilité des laboratoires ultra centralisés les institutions qui tentent deriger des murs autour du savoir finissent par isoler leur propre fragilite pendant que le reste du monde batit le siecle sur des fondations libres

I think all men reach an age where all they want to do is rewatch Heat over and over again.

HEAT (1995) - FRAME 0298

1,700 kickers and coaches signed up before we had an app. 800K+ organic impressions on socials before a single download existed. Now we do. Kicker AI is live on the App Store. Record a kick from behind the ball and the app breaks it down phase by phase, from setup to follow-through. You get an instant analysis of your form, a score out of 10, coaching on each phase, plus the one thing to fix first. Great kicking coaches exist, but most kickers only get to see one a few times a year. Kicker AI is there for every rep in between, with drills to fix what it finds. Punters and long snappers are coming soon. Link below.

The official trailer for William Greaves’ ‘ONCE UPON A TIME IN HARLEM’ has been released. In theaters on October 16.

This is the natural endpoint of the low vibrational mumbletrap slop that Len Blavatnik (VP of WMG), Lyor Cohen, and Lucian Grainge have been shoving down Americans’ throats since 2014

We founded Armada on the belief that the world needed a new kind of digital infrastructure. Infrastructure that could go where the cloud couldn’t. That could operate across borders, data residency requirements, and increasingly complex sovereignty constraints. That could be deployed where the data and energy already live. And that could adapt as quickly as the workloads and people it supports. Since then, the Armada team has been putting that idea into the field. Leviathan in the Nordics and Australia. Triton in North Dakota and the Middle East. Cruiser in Alaska and aboard the USS Cooperstown. And many more deployments around the world. Today we’re taking another major step with Orion, the newest and most powerful member of the Galleon family. 10 MW per unit. Designed to scale from a single deployment to hundreds of megawatts. Delivered in months, not years. And, like every Galleon, built around a simple principle: the customer owns and controls their infrastructure, the data, and the models. Thank you to every customer and partner who has trusted Armada to build alongside them. From the first deployment to the largest AI factories, we’re building infrastructure with speed, scale, and sovereignty. Together, we’re building the Sovereign AI Grid. armada.ai/blog/armada-orion-…

Me and my friends outside AMC Kips Bay at the end of the year

The loss of an excellent AMC location in NY. Dang.

This feels like an inflection point

Scoop: Groq raises $350 million at a $3.5 billion valuation after the Nvidia deal last year, with a focus on expanding data center work. About $1 billion raised in just a matter of months. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…