New lows continue to outnumber new highs on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, while the NYSE advance-decline line has fallen to new lows—further evidence that participation beneath the surface remains weak. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to lag the major averages, and leadership is concentrated in a relatively narrow group of large-cap, capitalization-weighted names that appear to be benefiting from a flight to quality and perceived safety. At the same time, the macro backdrop remains challenging. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5%, crude oil pulled back, but remains near $100 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve’s latest projections suggest a continued upward trajectory for rates. At the very least, investors will likely have to contend with at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Interestingly, some former high-growth stocks that underwent significant corrections are beginning to attract interest again—not necessarily because investors are embracing aggressive growth, but because lower prices have made their valuations more compelling relative to earnings and expected growth. In effect, some former momentum names are increasingly being viewed through a relative-value or PEG-ratio lens. As a result, many of these names have become extended and vulnerable to a pullback. Bottom line: this remains a highly bifurcated and selective market. The major capitalization-weighted indexes can give the appearance of broad strength even while a significant portion of the market is behaving considerably worse underneath. Until breadth improves, new highs expand, and leadership broadens beyond a concentrated group of names, I would continue to treat the strength in the headline indexes with a degree of skepticism and caution. We currently maintain a relatively light number of long positions. $TWLO, $DE, and $TEVA have held up well and continue to stand out as our strongest performers. On the defensive side, we remain short $IWM. We reduced the size of what had been an overweight short position, but continue to maintain a hedge given the ongoing weakness in small caps and the broader deterioration beneath the surface.

Sep 24, 2026 · 1:19 PM UTC

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Replying to @markminervini
Incredibly quality analysis as ever Mark. I really need to learn sit on my hands - I’ve been getting chopped around horrendously of late.
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Replying to @markminervini
I have been a market “enthusiast” for close to 40 years and I have never seen interest rates moving like this. Something is going to break.
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Replying to @markminervini
I bought MRNA at the $175 pivot and it’s blasting off. No huge earnings growth but the mkt knows something.
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Replying to @markminervini
Small caps make it starker: IWM closed 281.92 Wednesday, 7.6% under its Aug 14 peak of 305.09, and only 2 of the last 80 sessions closed lower. Since Sep 18 SPY is +0.8% while IWM is -0.8%.
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Replying to @markminervini
$RSP looks bad. Breadth has waned basically every day in September
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Replying to @markminervini
Thanks for sharing Mark. I appreciate it.
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Replying to @markminervini
I appreciate your updates
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Replying to @markminervini
lots of new lows but spy still at ath, when those new lows start going again spy to the moon for midterm miracle
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Replying to @markminervini
Protecting capital is a position too. Let the market earn your risk.
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Replying to @markminervini
You have been saying similar stuff for about three months now. The market doesn’t care. It wants to concentrate.
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Replying to @markminervini
10Y above 5%, oil 100, IWM short. when does breadth turn?
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Replying to @markminervini
Out of curiosity, what led you to buy DE and Teva? I clearly see the breakout on the charts and it did hold up, yet the fundamentals on the two didn’t look all that great.
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Replying to @markminervini
The more I look at this, the more I see what you mean. Great perspective. You and @AUTIGER222 are two accounts I’m always checking.
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Replying to @markminervini
Great breakdown, Mark..
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Replying to @markminervini
Looks like the market's playing hide‑and‑seek and forgot to tell us where it's hiding. 😎
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Replying to @markminervini
Russell names carry far more floating rate and near dated paper than large caps. So higher for longer lands straight in their interest expense while megacap coupons stay locked. Your $IWM short is really a rates position.
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Replying to @markminervini
Breadth is where a higher discount rate shows up first. 10Y closed 5.11% yesterday. At that level the marginal buyer stops funding anything that doesn't throw off cash right now. The index holds on a handful of names. Everything underneath gets repriced.
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Replying to @markminervini
Hello Mark, do pls create MPA for Indian markets, it will be a huge success!
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Replying to @markminervini
weak breadth is the tell, I've been watching IWM bleed for weeks
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