The EU is ‌not rearming quickly or effectively enough to meet its goal of being ready to defend against Russia by 2030, according to the executive summary of an EU report prepared for the bloc's leaders that I got a look at this week. reuters.com/business/aerospa…

By EU treaties, defence is a national prerogative. We have 27 armies, 27 defence policies, 27 defence budgets. We also have major “non-achievements”, which we need to overcome in the nearest future to achieve readiness. My take at the @BusinessEurope event. Long thread ⬇️ 1/15

Defence market fragmentation - major obstacle for 🇪🇺 defence companies to become leaders in global competition. Everything is fragmented in defence: Procurement, production, certification, intra-EU transfers, testing, etc. not allowing industries to ramp-up their production.

This is the vibe we try to have on the EuroFile podcast

This is indeed the wildest thing I’ve seen in a long time

RT @b_judah: There is no viable Labour reindustrialisation strategy without dramatically increased access to the European market. As it sta…

"We should be developing the rules for the future of AI with our democratic allies around the world who share our values, and making China fit into that world, rather than starting with an adversary" -- as my better half @Henrietta_Ivy explains here.

Weak

I'm glad this agreement was reached and the outcome seems fine. But no one should pretend that getting treaty revisions we could have just asked for was worth the tradeoff of one of the most severe crises in NATO's history, which neither our friends nor adversaries will forget.

New from me for RUSI today… Why NATO should urgently set up a multinational squadron dedicated to intercepting one-way-attack drones; including the rough performance, avionics and weapon requirements and aircraft options available. Free to read here: rusi.org/explore-our-researc…

De Stonewall Inn is niet zomaar een gay bar in New York, maar de plaats waar in 1969 rellen plaatsvonden als reactie op jarenlange discriminatie en geweld van de politie. Dit wordt gezien als startpunt van de wereldwijde lhbtiq+-emancipatie en activisme. Tegenwoordig is de bar een nationaal monument, gewijd aan de lhbtiq+-rechtenbeweging. Voor mij is het indrukwekkend en ontroerend om vanavond hier te zijn. En ook passend want de verdediging van mensenrechten is een belangrijk onderdeel van ons buitenlandbeleid. Nederland staat aan de zijde van de Stonewall Inn-gemeenschap als het gaat om het recht van iedereen om openlijk, veilig en met trots te leven, wie je ook bent en van wie je ook houdt.

An underappreciated positive tailwind for the European economy, and Chancellor Merz. Slow start, but Germany's fiscal stimulus is starting to lift the real economy. If the government can flank it with some reforms, things may look up. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Responsibility for the Nazis, said Ivan Krastev, “cannot be used to stabilize Germany’s political system any longer.” nytimes.com/2026/09/21/world…

The State Duma election has renewed expectations of tougher domestic policies, another military mobilisation and personnel changes. These involve different decisions and pressures. How much does the vote itself change the #Kremlin’s calculations, and which developments would have followed regardless of the electoral calendar? United Russia’s campaign combined promises of normalisation with calls for wartime consolidation. These reflected different political needs: reassuring voters about everyday life while preparing society for further hardship. The new R.Politik Bulletin assesses how #Putin will interpret the result and what to expect after the vote. It also examines the bargains and conflicts between the authorities and opposition parties, which need to attract voters while demonstrating loyalty and negotiate with the Kremlin while retaining a recognisable political identity. We trace the decision-making behind the transfer of #Nestlé and #Auchan’s Russian businesses to temporary administration, examining who may have driven the measures and how domestic interests interacted with retaliation against Europe. The departure of the head of the #FSB’s Economic Security Service will be followed by further personnel changes; the question is their scale. The bulletin examines growing dissatisfaction among Putin’s proxies with the FSB’s overreach and how far Putin is prepared to act on these complaints. Abroad, the #BRICS summit offered another test of Russia’s ability to translate diplomatic engagement into practical cooperation on trade and payments. The #AfD’s regional election gains are being read differently within Moscow. The bulletin considers competing schools of thought about Europe’s political direction, the expectations attached to the rise of the far right and what these mean for Russia’s approach to Germany and its dealings with Trump’s circle. R.Politik Bulletin No. 16 (190) examines the political arrangements behind the election and the decisions that may follow. rpolitik.com/bulletin/16-202…

It is very rare for a candidate in any European election to run on a European agenda. Europe's elections are very national, parochial affairs. And yet the big issues confronting Europeans are mainly dealt with in Brussels. This may be a long shot play but will be interesting.

I have long said watch Russia’s border policies. One of the last remaining post-Soviet freedoms is to leave the country. If that is curtailed, it’s mobilisation.

The Kennedy Memorial is made of irreplaceable marble that was gifted by Italy. Matisse tapestries found throughout were gifted from France. The massive starburst chandelier in the Opera Hall, and lights along walkways, were a gift from Sweden. The record-breaking stage curtains were a gift from Japan. They had to build special looms to weave them because of how big they are. The grounds are beautiful with displays of art. This is what Trump is destroying.

So basically the status quo ante but now there is less trust in the transatlantic community. This is a solution that was looking for a problem.

Some reflections in today's New York Times on the lurking risk to the EU economy from low gas storages. EU governments are betting on a Hormuzian chance to purchase gas at lower prices, and if not, to outbid others. A risky bet. It'll probably be fine. Probably. 1/

"Sanctions don't work". Putin's voting for himself using an unlicensed Windows.