When I give talks for my forthcoming book I always say "these are the industries that will be disrupted by AI, and in this order: 1. coding 2. law ..."
90% of lawyering is: (a) pattern recognition (calling it experience or intuition is cope) (b) choosing the right template & filling it out (c) reading & translating jargon (d) writing Guys - we are first up, and unlike the devs, most have no idea what's coming.

Jan 26, 2026 · 1:33 PM UTC

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Replying to @mims
High-stakes work needs skepticism toward AI hype. Today’s models are brittle, marked by single-path reasoning, popularity over truth, weak causal understanding, and failures that shift with phrasing and context. Salesforce’s pullback from AgentForce following low-stakes customer service failures, as it entered 2026, should be read as an early warning. Now imagine explaining to a high-profile client that you missed a deadline to save money on routine administrative work. Good luck keeping that portfolio. Playing innovator without expertise is a reliable way to make your firm famous, for all the wrong reasons. See related research and public threads below:
Replying to @AndyMasley
AI agents have serious unresolved flaws. Research shows leading agents succeed only ~58% in simple tasks, dropping to ~35% in multi-turn scenarios. In early 2026, Salesforce retreated from AI agents after costly failures and "unexplained errors”. Remember that hallucinations and unreliability are built-in, not bugs to fix. Evidence is clear: there are fundamental design risks and why leaders in the space are changing their AI-first strategy. Pay attention or ignore at your own risk when headlines are literally warning you about it. Sources: [1] arxiv.org/abs/2505.18878 [2] perplexity.ai/page/salesforc…
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Replying to @mims
And coders are much better prepared to deal with it
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Replying to @mims
Lawyers have an interesting defense mechanism though in that they are also in charge of their own asylum in a way that developers are not.
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Replying to @mims
Weird how brainy kid jobs are going first. Programmers, lawyers…who’s next? Doctors?
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Replying to @mims
It's basically any closed system with a feedback loop. Both law and code are based entirely on established, documented rules and examples. The only variables are new circumstances or entirely new categories. Just one step on from Deep Blue + chess.
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Replying to @mims
Any industry with text-based input and output. However, I'd add consulting to the heap - not the CYOA value proposition but due diligence, research, competitive research. AI models with deep domain expertise are coming for consulting. The business model itself is one cause: it's tied to human billing hours.
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Replying to @mims
I've been thinking about disruption, and it's less about which industry gets hit first, and more about which industries are designed to adapt to change. Coding and law might be early adopters, but I wonder if it's not the industries that are more rigid that will be the last ones standing. Rethinking the rules can be a powerful catalyst for innovation.
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Replying to @mims
AI should make the quality of legal work increase dramatically, especially for affordable services. But, don't underestimate lawyers' ability to write laws to protect themselves.
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