📈 ARK just open-sourced its 2031 Tesla model: ~$4,400/share expected value (bear ~$3,300, bull ~$5,000).
The mix: Robotaxi ~80% of enterprise value, Optimus ~15%.
Base case: 8.1M robotaxis, $1.45T revenue, 1M external Optimus units.
ARK also estimates Cybercab's cost per mile at ~40% below Waymo's next-gen robotaxi at equal utilization.
That matches Elon on Oct 18: "Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla's value."
Fact: ARK's published numbers. Inference: these are forecasts, not Tesla guidance, and the model is on GitHub for anyone to stress-test.