Reflections on geopolitics. Pro-human, pro-truth, pro-peace. Totally unaligned with any nation, ideology or institution. Here for the intellectual pleasure.

This place is so full of psy-ops, bots and famous liars that I think being here is making me dumber. Despite the useful access to genuine insights and breaking events. Not optimistic for the future of information access.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Rättegången om Nord Stream inleds nu i Tyskland. Kommer ni ihåg hösten 2022? Varje enskild politiker och "expert" i svensk och västerländsk media sprang benen av sig för att förklara att Vladimir Putin sprängt sina egna gasledningar i Östersjön. Det var det enda narrativa som tilläts, och att ifrågasätta det stämplades direkt som "rysk propaganda". Nu startar rättegången i Tyskland. Och vem står inför rätta? En ukrainsk ex-officer, misstänkt för inblandning i sabotaget samtidigt som tyska åklagare länkar aktionen direkt till ukrainska myndigheter och rubricerar attacken som ett krigsbrott. Det är som en mörk komedi. Om misstankarna stämmer har Tyskland alltså finansierat landet som misstänks ha sänkt deras egen industriella ryggrad. Hur förklarar man egentligen för framtida historiker att man skickade tiotals miljarder euro i bistånd till gänget som misstänks ha sänkt ens egen industri?
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Learning of even one of these incidents is enough to permanently undermine any European Union claims to value freedom of speech or rule of law. How tragic then that there are numerous such cases and an inevitable backswing that they will generate.
I can now confirm that yesterday I was notified of my expulsion from Latvia where I lived for 12 years. This, I believe, is a long-brewing revenge by far right politicians for my investigation into their links to Russian neo-Nazis who found refuge in Kyiv and who circulated the manifesto of Christchurch shooter in 2019. It is also a punishment for my commentary on the Russian aggression in Ukraine and for Pavel Sheremet investigation. The notification doesn’t point to any specific misdemeanours or statements which prompted the decision. I was declared persona non grata, a status designed for diplomats who enjoy immunity from prosecution, not for ordinary people. This was done - as far right politicians who spearheaded the decision openly admit - in order to deny me justice in the Latvian court system: PNG status cannot be appealed in courts. This makes me conclude that I am facing political persecution. For me it is a huge personal tragedy. I am being evicted from my only beloved home, deprived of my circle of friendship and support. I love Latvia, the land of my ethnic Latvian ancestors, and have no sense of revenge. I will always remain pro-Latvian. It makes me immensely sad that high positions in the Latvian government have been captured by forces whose closest political relation is Putin and who are using Putin’s aggression in Ukraine as a pretext for eroding the rule of law and democracy in the European Union. My stance on the war in Ukraine remains unchanged. I condemn the Russian aggression and support Ukraine’s sovereignty over occupied territories. Ukraine is a wound in my heart, not a source of political gain as it is for my persecutors. But I’ll continue to criticise Western countries for mishandling this conflict and not acting in the best interests of the Ukrainian people. I shall not be gagged. Shame on those who understand what is happening but look away or buy into smear campaign waged against me by the pro-war lobby and far right info dumps. One day, they’ll come for you, too. Attn @RSF_inter @ECPMF
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RT @leonidragozin: I can now confirm that yesterday I was notified of my expulsion from Latvia where I lived for 12 years. This, I believe,…
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Acto uno: EEUU le prohibe a los europeos que compren energía barata a los rusos Segundo acto: EEUU vende gas y diésel a precios elevados a los europeos Tercer acto: EEUU obtiene esa energía barata de Rusia para venderla a la UE con una enorme ganancia La cena de los idiotas
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Armchair Realist retweeted
So it is *irrational* to be disturbed by child killing, torture, dehumanizing goim, genodice, land theft, colonial settlement, Apartheid, Christophobia, disposession, state terrorism, fake genetic origin, injustice, violation of int'l law, & censorship of Western media.
Taleb is the best evidence that you can write books like the Black Swan and still lose all rationality, and the ability to articulate an actual argument, due to Israel derangement syndrome. Meanwhile, the only thing wrong with Kasparov's comparison is that the bomb maker may have actually advanced the study of chemistry.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
小孩问庄子,什么是诡辩。庄子反问:我家来了两个客人,一个很干净,一个很脏。我请他俩洗澡,你觉得谁会洗? 小孩脱口而出;肯定是脏的那个! 庄子摇摇头:不对。干净的人爱干净,脏的人不在乎脏,应该是干净的人洗。 小孩赶紧改口:那就是干净的洗。 庄子又笑了:又错了。干净的人没必要洗,脏的人才需要洗,是脏的洗。 小孩情了:那到底是谁洗? 庄子说:干净的人有习惯,脏的人有需要,两个人都洗。不等小孩反应,他又补了一句;其实俩人都不洗,干净的不用洗,脏的不爱洗。 小孩彻底迷糊。 庄子这才点明:这就是诡辩。逻辑都通顺,但答案却不一样,很多人跟你争论,逻辑听着都没问题,但结论可以随意变换。 绕来绕去,目的不是求真,只是把你绕晕。 遇到这种诡辩,不必争辩。
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I bet he wasn't even a top 10 visitor
New Epstein files show that UAE king Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum visited Epstein's island 108 times.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Standing beside the former chairman of Blackrock, Mark Rutte gets a "peace prize" days after insisting NATO and Europe deserve partial credit for Trump's war on Iran
The Westphalian Peace Prize was awarded to NATO, while members of the public booed Mark Rutte and Friedrich Merz. Europe seems to be drifting into a political legitimacy crisis, and giving themselves peace prizes does not reverse it.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
This symbolic plaque in stead of a grave in the Serbian-Hungarian village of Vrbica (Egyházaskér) explains Hungary's present position towards Ukraine and Zelenskyy. The young man was one of two dozen Hungarians killed in action, while mobilized into the Yugoslav army to fight against Croatians during and after the siege of Vukovar. The young boy's body was possibly never found so the family had to console itself by a symbolic grave with an inscription from one of the oldest medieval Hungarian texts we know today: "világ világa, virágnak virága" (light of our world, blossom of our flower) from the Lament of our Lady, Mary (cca. 1300) Many such recruits from Backa and Banat were intentionally used by the Milosevic regime against Hungarian villager volunteers in the Croatian army living in Slavonia. 25 thousand Hungarians from Yugoslavia had to to flee to Hungary proper to avoid mobilization. Since 1990 Hungarian political leaders swore an oath not to ever allow again that foreign conflicts would entangle their diaspora so much that Hungarians go up against each other in wars or get mobilized to die for wars they in Hungary's view have little to do with. Yet from 2022, the Transcarpathian Hungarians, who essentially were never asked about whether they would like to become Ukrainians or not, face the same situation. Which is why it is only logical that their fate is a neuralgic point in Hungary's attitude towards Ukraine. And that "no more Yugoslav wars" became an implicit rallying cry.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
German satirist Erich Kästner wrote a poem in 1929 about how women, when the next war threatens, lock up their sons, brothers and husbands, stop bankers, industrialists and generals from starting the war, then go home to their men. And the men are silent and don't look at them.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
The Ukraine war is a tragedy beyond any imagination. This is IMO why it continues: 1. The military-industry, big oil and big finance want it to 2. Russia sees Ukraine NATO membership as an existential threat (something that competent security analysts and top CIA / US military officials / the European political elite understood well before the Maidan coup), and they in reality have no counterparty to negotitiate a realistic peace plan with. 3. Zelensky and his family have likely been threatened by the Ukrainian neo-nazis («End the war - and we end you.») 4. The European political elite sees the war as necessary to keep the US (NATO) in Europe + they hate Russia 5. CIA and Trump wants to bleed Russia dry, to keep the dream of US world hegemony alive as long as possible + Many voters who themselves won’t have to risk their lives want more blood, because media has made them think Russia is our enemy and Putin is the new Hitler. The war must end now, before Ukraine is completely destroyed.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
2/ The files are not mainly a story about one man’s crimes, though those are documented and monstrous. They show finance, philanthropy, science, and state power operating as one, with a convicted predator at the switchboard for a decade after his 2008 conviction. My primary conclusion is that the nation-state is no longer the central unit of power - it is the shadow network itself, which operates beneath the layer of accountability associated with democratic institutions, and whose architecture of impunity allows it to stay entirely above the law.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Great idea! That should be about as simple as rallying grassroots activists in the US to put an end to Trump's disastrous war in Iran. Right???
Bernie Sanders: We must rally and work with grassroots activists in Russia to put an end to Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
A single Russian missile hitting Berlin, London or Washington would trigger a response so overwhelming that humanity would be lucky to emerge from it at all. And yet munitions manufactured and guided by NATO powers are now routinely hitting Moscow. With no democratic legitimacy — they hold favourability ratings of 15-40% in countries that have no real say on questions of war and peace — Europe’s ruling elites openly state their aim of dismembering Russia. To give their intentions teeth, they have embarked on an armament drive that now exceeds the annualised increases in military spending in the years immediately preceding the First World War. Even the tensest moments of the Cold War, which we now know put us seconds away from annihilation, provide no precedent for the scale of the folly unfolding today. Since there is no meaningful anti-war movement in Europe, we have reached the incredible point where our main barrier to nuclear annihilation is the thinning patience of the leadership in the Kremlin. I don’t think we have ever faced a situation so brittle and been so deeply unprepared to confront it.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Je ne suis pas pro-Poutine Mais je refuse le conte pour enfants dans lequel cette guerre opposerait simplement un fou sanguinaire à un camp du Bien qui n’aurait jamais rien fait de travers La Russie porte la responsabilité d’avoir envahi l’Ukraine C’est un fait Mais c’est aussi un fait que l’OTAN a progressivement avancé vers l’Est et qu’en 2008 elle annonçait officiellement que l’Ukraine et la Géorgie deviendraient membres On peut considérer que cela ne justifie absolument pas une invasion, tout en comprenant qu’une grande puissance puisse considérer l’installation progressive d’une alliance militaire rivale à ses frontières comme une menace Les deux idées peuvent exister en même temps Même chose avec la propagande Oui, la Russie fait de l’ingérence, de la désinformation et des opérations d’influence Et nous aussi La guerre moderne ne se joue plus uniquement avec des chars Elle se joue avec les médias, les réseaux sociaux, le renseignement, les sanctions, la cyber, les opérations d’influence et les récits que chaque camp impose à sa population Faire croire que seuls les Russes jouent à ce jeu est ridicule Même chose avec les États-Unis Les États-Unis défendent leurs intérêts Comme la Russie défend les siens Comme la Chine défend les siens Ils ne dépensent pas des centaines de milliards par pure philanthropie Et pendant que Washington reste à des milliers de kilomètres du front, c’est l’Europe qui vit avec la guerre à sa frontière, la rupture énergétique avec la Russie et le risque permanent d’escalade Alors quand on arme l’Ukraine, qu’on finance son effort de guerre et qu’elle frappe profondément sur le territoire russe, il ne faut pas ensuite tomber de sa chaise en découvrant que Moscou nous considère comme partie prenante au conflit Si demain la Russie finançait massivement un pays en guerre contre la France, lui fournissait ses armes et son renseignement pendant que des drones frappaient notre territoire, personne ici ne trouverait ça anodin Le problème aujourd’hui, c’est qu’on semble avoir oublié l’objectif initial Arrêter la guerre Pas la faire durer indéfiniment jusqu’à ce qu’un camp accepte enfin de disparaître À un moment, Russes, Ukrainiens, Européens et Américains devront s’asseoir autour d’une table Et l’Europe devra surtout retrouver une politique étrangère qui défende ses propres intérêts au lieu de simplement suivre ceux de Washington Notre sécurité Notre énergie Notre souveraineté Et surtout la paix sur notre continent
Menace russe: "La Russie n'a aucune intention agressive envers les pays européens", assure Vladimir Poutine
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Armchair Realist retweeted
In 1997, Biden mocked Russia’s security concerns over NATO expansion, dismissing Moscow’s warning that it would have to respond by aligning more closely with China instead. Biden sarcastically suggested that Russia could also align itself with Iran.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Shocked by Belgrade. Charmed by Damascus.
The images from Ratko Mladić’s funeral yesterday in Belgrade were shocking. Ratko Mladić was a convicted war criminal. He was responsible for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. He died while serving a life sentence for the Srebrenica genocide and other crimes. The elements of official support and the presence of some senior Serbian officials at the funeral are deeply regrettable. They demonstrate a failure to confront a dark chapter in Europe’s recent history and contradict the values underpinning Serbia’s path towards the European Union. Our thoughts are with all the victims of the crimes committed in the countries of former Yugoslavia.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Fun to see all those embracing and whitewashing Azov suddenly up in arms against the “neo-nazi” AfD. The problem with these pseudo-liberals is that their value system is confined to geopolitical (that is, imperialist) choices. The rest is for the show. What’s the real difference between Merz or Green Party warmongers on the one hand and AfD on the other, apart from stylistic? Both are the product of political and cultural degeneration and both excel in just one thing - promoting polarisation, conflict.
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Must just be a coincidence that 0 out of the 4 EU countries bordering Ukraine want to throw their lot in with the psychos demanding war from afar.
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Armchair Realist retweeted
Can’t wait for Freedom House to explain how nationalizing opposition media and having the Finance Minister sack editors scores higher on the freedom index than… withdrawing government advertising from select media outlets. The liberal world order has so many surprises!
Shocking developments in Hungary once again. On Péter Magyar’s orders, one of Hungary’s most important conservative media outlets, @mandiner, has been nationalized, and now its editor-in-chief has been fired by the government. The Prime Minister proudly announced this on Facebook - although, of course, he is not boasting about it here on X in English. The screenshot is from Mandiner itself. Its headline reads: “Mandiner’s CEO and editor-in-chief fired on the orders of the Finance Minister.” Magyar had already made his intentions perfectly clear in Parliament: the state would take over Mandiner and “we will have to determine its content.” The Brussels backed liberal authoritarian PM of Hungary is removing senior public officials, barring political opponents from running in elections, creating a super-authority capable of taking control of companies and confiscating assets, dismantling conservative institutions, using the police against opposition parties and now seeking political control over the media. Shame on Europe.
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