Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 7 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!
Michigan
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The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 is 5.1%. That feels like the right number for an economy starting to enter the singularity.
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What are Rebellionaire's SpaceX vs Tesla Growth Expectations?
SpaceX could be generating 1.5x Tesla's profits by Q1 2027, with 6x the revenue growth.
And by Q1 2028, SpaceX could see ~600% profit growth.
This is bull-case Tesla vs base-case SpaceX and it changes everything about the merger.
The numbers shocked us.
What do you think?
*Timestamps*
0:00 Intro
1:10 Tesla Q1 2027 Bull Case
5:03 SpaceX Q1 2027 Projections
9:28 Tesla vs. SpaceX: The Problem
11:58 Wall Street's SpaceX Blind Spot
15:42 SemiAnalysis & 2028 Outlook
17:19 Changing Views on the Merger
21:21 Still Tesla Fans
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Matt Smith retweeted
Remember when a Daimler exec said this about the @tesla_semi specs:
“If Tesla really delivers on this promise, we’ll obviously buy two trucks — one to take apart and one to test because if that happens, something has passed us by. But for now, the same laws of physics apply in Germany and in California.”
electrek.co/2018/02/21/tesla…
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Matt Smith retweeted
I'll share something somewhat obvious... Generally we don't sell low unless we think something is wrong.
Sell low isn't in our playbook. When we trim or sell it's usually after a rally. We've missed a few trim opportunities this year.
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Matt Smith retweeted
TSLA runs, stalls and reverts while the other megacaps keep going.
One reason sits in the option chain: a large premium-selling crowd whose calls market makers must buy and then hedge by selling shares into every rally.
$380 is the current lid, and $350 and $370 played the same role earlier this year.
One of the things I notice on X quite a lot is that many $TSLA bulls get frustrated about how the stock moves. And it doesn't help that others from outside the community like to pile on now and then. TSLA gets a nice little run going and then it just seems to die or even revert back down. While other MAGs keep going, TSLA runs, stalls, reverts.
One thing that options trading and studying the actual options chain/market has been showing me, is that ironically one of the big reasons is the options market itself. Tesla has a huge premium-selling crowd. Covered calls, cash-secured puts, vertical credit spreads, short-dated calls into every rip. Hell I was listening to a Wolf Financial Space here on X the other day, and it seemed like 75% of the speaker panel were in the process of managing these very trades at that moment :-) LOL.
Here's what happens on the other end. Dealers/market makers HAVE TO buy those from you. Then they need to hedge those purchases. What this creates is a scenario where they have to sell into rallies and buy into dips. All of the option selling has put them into a position where they have to act like a shock absorber. That’s why $380 feels like a lid right now. Same thing used to sit at $350 and $370. And it's why $400, and $420, and $450.....will feel the same.
But here's where that equation can be overcome. Where all you greedy little covered call sellers who love to bitch about the stock when you're the reason the wall exists in the first place (jk lol, I love all of you). It can still run. It can be overcome. Just like last month’s huge call buying that I posted about back then. It was one of the reasons we filled this gap from $298 to $380 as quickly as we did. And as those higher and older levels get met and become resistance, it will either take weeks of grinding to allow dealers to clear their books normally, or it can be done in one to two trading sessions with someone coming in and buying multiple millions of calls. I watch the tape for this every day. Nothing new to report to you, but if I see something I will definitely post it.
This is not bearish. Nor is it something that is "broken" about Tesla. In fact, it's just the opposite. There are way more people feeding, clothing, housing, educating, etc. their families using TSLA as the vehicle, than almost any other company on the planet. It's actually a beautiful thing. A gift that Elon Musk has given to all of us.
So all I ask is that you remember these things the next time you start complaining about how the stock price moves on X. Especially if you're doing from vacation home in Maui that you're using calls and puts to finance.
Love you all!
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I joined X 10 years ago just to lurk / read Elon’s tweets about $TSLA. Never thought it would lead to ~60K followers and a job that I love with @Rebellionaire!
I’ve met so many great people in person because of this platform. It has changed my life, and I’m incredibly grateful.
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The @tesla_semi can’t come soon enough!
BREAKING: Exxon Mobil has shut down one of the largest diesel refineries in the Midwest, which produces ~11 million gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel per day, due to outage issues.
This comes as diesel prices have already surged nearly 90% this year and the US has entered peak diesel demand season.
We expect to see diesel prices push toward $7.00/gallon.
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Matt Smith retweeted
Told @nerdalert on @Rebellionaire that the US News cycle is not great at capturing the *actual* abundance moments for steel in the ground, ⚡ in your house, or #EnergyforAI. In the past 24 hours, TWO mega impact studies on AI, Grids, and Data Center Demand have come out. BOTH @Google funded. Have you seen anything in the "news"? This is a riot, and a travesty. Anyway y'all, that's why I tweet.
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For two straight weeks @theallinpod has completely downplayed AI risks and claimed that @DarioAmodei is just trying to secure regulatory capture, and @dwarkesh_sp used anthropomorphic language to scare his viewers and drive views.
Now that @sama and @elonmusk are publicly siding with Dario, I’m guessing we’ll see some weird call back where one of them said something about risk.
We’ll get a “see, I was right!” rather than a “maybe I got this wrong…”
I’ve been a bit dismissive of the AI doomer thesis, but this story has me legitimately scared about ways AI can so easily go rogue. The more capable the AI, the worse that could be. And AI capability is a 🚀
I highly recommend reading the article linked here in its entirety.
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Our @rebellionaire Investment Management team was on-the-ground in NYC this week for the Backblaze Investor Day. Here are our unfiltered thoughts after the event.
The analyst team at Rebellionaire attended Backblaze ($BLZE) Investor Day in New York City.
What were some of the key takeaways for investors?
1) NVIDIA updated their reference architecture to call for an object storage data layer, which is the exact terminology Backblaze has been using for many years to describe their own business.
2) CoreWeave signed a $300M+ deal with Backblaze, proving their storage is compatible with NVIDIA's stack
3) NeoClouds don't want AWS lock-in or egress fees. They need hyperscaler-agnostic storage as data grows exponentially, which Backblaze can provide.
4) Backblaze is only working with 5 of ~200 NeoClouds. The TAM is barely touched.
5) CoreWeave chose to buy storage from Backblaze rather than build. That's because Backblaze has 20 years of operational expertise that can't be replicated overnight.
@nerdalert @HenryInvests @isaacyops
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I saw two cybercabs again today. Given how frequently I'm seeing them these days despite only driving ~30 miles per day, it seems likely to me that there must be at least a couple dozen of them around here, likely a lot more than that in the broader Metro Detroit area.
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Matt Smith retweeted
It took me two years, four ventures, two mega grid program creation journeys, to finally sit down with @nerdalert. We covered somehow, six years of my working originating gigs of new steel for power and human resilience. Loved doing this, Matt is an incredibly knowledgeable host who is doing fantastic high-signal evangelism in a noisy space.
I had the pleasure to speak with @arushiSF, Tesla's former energy policy lead, and the architect of a new rule which will allow for better utilization of the grid and faster time to power for data center (and other!) customers in Texas.
This was one of my favorite conversations in the last few years!
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Matt Smith retweeted
I talked about this company on the @nerdalert latest pod for @Rebellionaire. What they're doing, is keep our ice cream cold, hospital machines humming, buildings resilient. Human-centric Infra category creation & refinement is a big part of everything I back. Talk to @powertownusa if you're new or old in this business.
Today, Powertown begins the search our next 13 full-time hires who will join us in defining the future of American power infrastructure.
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