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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Raydium has been one of Solana's key protocols; its infrastructure is now fundamental to tokenised stocks and already processes $4 billion in volume.
We sat down w/ @ben_ungvari
to discuss @Raydium, @solana, @launchonsf and memes
📆 Wed 30 Sep 2:30 pm UTC
ALT Ben Ungvari, CMO of Raydium, discusses tokenization, Solana, and memes during a scheduled conversation event on September 30, 2026.
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Ethena is extending USDe’s basis trade into equity perps through Binance.
USDe currently has a $4.9B supply and has exposure across crypto basis and lending. Adding equity basis, which has averaged ~11% in annualised funding on Binance, could boost yield, attract more flows and push supply higher.
Additionally, as the supply reaches $7.5B, the fee switch activates, directing the protocol revenue to $ENA buybacks.
Ethena is partnering with @Binance as our first venue for the extension of the basis trade into equity perpetuals, one of the most exciting updates to the USDe collateral backing since launch.
This expands the addressable market of underlying collateral from $2.5 trillion of crypto to $150 trillion+ of real-world assets.
As part of the partnership, bStocks will serve as tokenized spot collateral, hedged with Binance USDT-denominated equity perpetuals - the same delta-neutral structure Ethena has securely executed across crypto assets since inception.
Importantly, Binance provides lower ADL priority for eligible delta-neutral accounts including Ethena's, adding another layer of risk mitigation for USDe holders.
Binance equity basis has averaged ~11%+ annualized over the past 6 months, while open interest has grown on average ~30% per month in the last 3 month period.
We expect the market opportunity size for equity perpetuals to far exceed the $15b+ of crypto perpetuals captured by Ethena last cycle.
Allocations begin today.
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
A lot of controversy on this, and a lot of bad takes too, so let's unpack it.
First, the fact that most of the volume comes from orders of the same size (~$5.4k ETH, $2.5k BTC) doesn't say much about whether it's wash trading. It could be a maker posting that size at the top of the book and getting picked off by a taker who hits the full quote every time. Makers are often paid by exchanges, so they have an incentive to stay in the book even if they lose a small edge.
To tell whether it's wash trading, only one thing doesn't lie: markouts. For those who don't know, markouts answer the question: where did the price go after you traded? Positive = you bought before it went up (or sold before it went down), negative is the reverse.
There are three groups of takers when we look into the data:
• orders sized exactly to the fixed quote (roughly $5.4k ETH, $2.5k BTC): 54% of ETH, 44% of BTC notional
• bigger sweeps that also hit that quote
• everyone else
So first, what real taker edge looks like. When Binance jumps, normal Kalshi takers hit the stale quotes ~65 ms later (≈ the Tokyo - Binance →Ohio - Kalshi hop). Their edge is locked in within 500 ms, and the markout shows it: +0.41 bps at 1s on ETH.
Now let's look into where it hurts. We split the fixed-size takers from the rest, and plot when their orders arrive after a Binance move of more than 3 bps (2 bps on BTC). That's where you'd expect arbitrage, and you see it clearly in the "other" trades: a peak about 65 ms after the Binance move, close to the latency between the two locations. The surprise is that the fixed-size trades are almost flat. So whatever edge that taker has, it isn't latency. (First graph of the tweet)
Kalshi's article also leans on @OctopusTakopi's numbers to say the taker has edge, but that $98k is measured around 30s. That makes no sense. The only edge that could explain this taker not being wash trading is very short-term latency arbitrage between Binance and Kalshi. If you had a longer edge, at 30s or more (much noisier and harder to find), you'd trade it on the most liquid venue, where you can put on far more size. And at 1 second, where a latency edge would show, it doesn't: 0.00 bps ETH, −0.07 BTC. BTC is negative 19 of 19 days. Same answer if you use Kalshi's own mid instead of Binance's. The "profit" only shows up after 5s: around +0.12, at 30s it's +0.13 bps on ETH and +0.12 on BTC, and it never goes above +0.17 bps at any horizon. That's not information. Their direction matches the last visible Binance tick 59 to 64% of the time, and a naive "follow the last tick" rule earns the same drift - which means no real alpha. (Second graph of the tweet)
No one holds 30s of risk for 0.1 bps unless trading is free. Which raises the question: is it? Kalshi says members have a fee holiday. Its CFTC filing says takers net 0.3 bps and makers are paid 0.3. At 0.3 the fixed-size taker loses at EVERY single horizon.
tldr: the fixed-size taker has no latency edge. Its only "profit" shows up after 5s, is worth ~0.1 bps, and a naive momentum rule gets the same. If it pays 0.3 bps in fees, it loses money, and quite a lot given the volume. The tape has no account IDs, so this can't prove who's behind it, but "profitable for the taker" certainly doesn't hold up.
i thought more about it. beni, sorry for being a dick. i shouldn't have attacked you personally. it was cocky and unnecessary, and i should have stuck to the facts.
i do want to clarify one thing: our incentives pay for liquidity, not wash trading. the claim that we’re incentivizing wash trading is incorrect, but i should have explained why instead of making it personal.
this has made clear we need to do a better job explaining how our incentives work and the safeguards we have in place. we’ve laid out the full context here: news.kalshi.com/p/the-facts-…
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It's insane how most ways to hold crypto are unsafe, whether offchain or onchain. Even if it is relatively safe, it can be complex to set up. This is also why ETFs became important for majors.
Bitget has confirmed a $351.6M breach affecting parts of its hot and warm wallet infrastructure.
At that size, it is:
✦ The largest crypto hack of 2026
✦ The fifth-largest CEX hack
✦ Equal to roughly 76% of Bitget’s reported $464M+ Protection Fund
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Onchain options are picking up, and there's an option for every user's needs. In this piece, we explore how different options products fit different user needs and how they have evolved over time.
- Exchange-style options venues: @DeriveXYZ and @paradex
- Binary and prediction-style venues: @Polymarket, @Kalshi and @HyperliquidX HIP-4
- Structured products and yield strategies: @ryskfinance and @HegicOptions
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Variational just released its TGE details: 32% of its supply will be airdropped, and 100% of revenues will be used to buy back and burn $VAR.
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
RH and robinhood:0x39dbed3a2bd333467115de45665cc57f813c4571 next leg up soon
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lol no way
Hey, we understand your concern. Seed Tag is a Binance label for cryptocurrencies in early development that may carry higher volatility and risk than established tokens.
You can find more information here: binance.com/en/academy/gloss… - CN
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Live in T-3 hours
Tokenised stocks have crossed $3B, but most of that capital still sits idle.
Last week, @xStocksFi vaults went live in collaboration with @Kamino, @veda_labs, and @SentoraHQ, letting @krakenfx users earn yield on these assets.
Join us on Wed, 23rd Sep, 3 pm UTC
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Our latest newsletter is out.
This week we cover:
✦ Kalshi and the Weekend Run ft. @beniduboss
✦ Options are cooking @DeriveXYZ
✦ @Kinetiq_xyz 2.15% of supply burned, and @Enter_Elysium testnet
✦ Zcash NFTs, Arc Launch, and SEC Exemption
(1/5)
research.castlelabs.io/p/kal…
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Can confirm, @francescoweb3 is super fun to work with
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
When @noveleader asks me to check the draft of his section for our upcoming perp report
See you in a week
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Tokenised stocks have crossed $3B, but most of that capital still sits idle.
Last week, @xStocksFi vaults went live in collaboration with @Kamino, @veda_labs, and @SentoraHQ, letting @krakenfx users earn yield on these assets.
Join us on Wed, 23rd Sep, 3 pm UTC
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Tokenised stocks have crossed $3B, but most of that capital still sits idle.
Last week, @xStocksFi vaults went live in collaboration with @Kamino, @veda_labs, and @SentoraHQ, letting @krakenfx users earn yield on these assets.
Join us on Wed, 23rd Sep, 3 pm UTC
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Noveleader 🏰 retweeted
Perp exchanges ranked by turnover.
Lower turnover suggests longer holding periods, while higher turnover points to shorter holding periods or potential wash trading.
Hyperliquid has the lowest turnover, while Kalshi has the highest.
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This is the easiest cycle ever because you can just say “does it make money”
If yes compare to the other tokens that make money on a few simple metrics (PE ratio, holder rights, buybacks, unlocks)
If no skip it. Maybe it goes up but why take a hard trade?
Derive, Hyperliquid, Aerodrome, Uniswap, Near, and Pendle collectively generated ~$560m in revenue YTD.
Their tokens are also among the strong performers.
The market is increasingly pricing in revenue and token alignment.
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