To make robots work, the key bottleneck is DATA.
@openroboto is solving that in the Bittensor world.
@Figure_robot has been crowdsourcing data in the humanoid world.
OpenAI shut down its robotics team in 2021 explicitly because of the data problem, then restarted it later. having the best LLM didn't solve that then.
everyone assuming a frontier VLM solves robotics runs into the exact same wall:
action data is the actual bottleneck. the internet has no torques, contact forces, proprioception, or failure-recovery trajectories. pretraining compounds for the "what," while the "how" has to be physically collected, costs per hour, and doesn't scale like tokens.
embodiment fragmentation breaks the data pool further. physical data is partly tied to specific hands, kinematics, and sensors. cross-embodiment transfer helps, but it isn't free.
evals happen in the real world and take days, not minutes. that blunts the core advantage of frontier AI labs, which is fast scaled iteration.
the long tail is operational. reaching 99.9% reliability in messy sites means dealing with hardware, safety, maintenance, and customer ops. that is a low-margin, atoms-heavy business, a poor fit for a software-margin org.
the model backbone is commoditizing anyway. open VLMs are good-enough starting points. Physical Intelligence, Skild, and others built competitive policies without owning a frontier LLM.