46M contracts traded on 49ers–Rams I broke down the taker flow and added a new chart tracking prices after large sweeps to see which takers got the better of the trade both charts and the full breakdown on Resolution Pending resolutionpending.substack.c…

Sturgill Simpson (Johnny Blue Skies) puts on a killer show. Ball Arena absolutely erupted last night also respect to the two guys in front of us who bought 4 seats to a packed show to dance their ass off

best explanation I’ve read of the Kalshi wash trading allegations the $5.5k trades look more like subsidy-driven volume than wash trading makers keep quoting, while fee rebates let faster traders pick off stale prices real trades ≠ organic demand

spoke too soon. timeline is almost entirely CT now and it’s been pretty entertaining

need Kalshi to add Logan Paul to the press secretary market so I can continue negrisking this position if Tucker Carlson gets a strike, Logan deserves one too

my timeline has been transitioning from prediction market twitter to gambling twitter not sure it was an upgrade, but at least it’s better than crypto twitter

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the worst part about Codex resets is that buying one resets your 7-day window for the next reset I gave in and paid the $80, but would love if it didn’t reset that window, or at least gave you the option

reminder to self: stop flipping positions for tiny margins and liquidity rewards when much better off just holding sanctuary yes to 80c+ 🤦‍♂️

Tibo got me hooked with the free resets and then cut off the supply

new NFL chart: the last 24 hours of trading on Kalshi before kickoff 16.4M contracts traded on Broncos-Chiefs pregame. 94% of it in the final day, 11M at one price: KC 54¢ takers bought 9.6M Denver to 6.8M Kansas City

curious what markout windows people use for live sports I used 60s and 300s here, but a lot can happen between plays which windows are most useful for identifying sharp taker sweeps? shorter intervals, longer ones, or measuring before the next play?

GPT-6 Astra is great until it randomly decides to be a coward switch to Sol and it’ll just run with it

many Kalshi liquidity reward markets have disappeared from the incentives page, even though the API still shows them I first noticed it on the Red Rocks 2027 markets no comment from the team yet. are rewards still accruing, or should market makers consider pulling quotes?

the $35B estimate is somewhat in line with my $22B game-winner-only projection from last month I’ll be revisiting my forecast in the coming weeks article by @nickdevor_ in @barronsonline