gambling & prediction markets reporter @barronsonline • board of directors @IAPE1096 • Signal: nickdevor.55
New York, NY
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NEW: Jaime Costello, director of programs at the National Council on Problem Gambling, has resigned.
She oversaw the operations of the NCPG's national gambling addiction helpline, 1-800-My-Reset. Costello intended to stay on and manage a transition but her "last day came sooner than I had planned, not by my choice."
"I made this decision because, over the past year, the environment shifted in ways I could no longer reconcile with how I believe this work should be done."
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Nick Devor retweeted
The bigger lesson of Kalshi vs crypto is that letting your employees (outside of comms folks) argue with people on twitter is -EV
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Nick Devor retweeted
SCOOP: 70% of trading volume on Polymarket's 2028 presidential election market is on candidates with <1% chance of winning.
$48 million has been traded on a LeBron James presidency, and only $9 million on Marco Rubio. $34 million on Kim Kardashian.
There's a combined $41 million in trades on Elon Musk and Zohran Mamdani—both of whom, as non-native U.S. citizens, are ineligible for inauguration.
The trend is reversed on Kalshi, where trading volume is concentrated among the front-runners.
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Nick Devor retweeted
Easily the best in-depth/investigative reporting on prediction markets coming from the folks at WSJ.
NEW: A story full of scoops big and small from @ceostroff and @byneilmehta.
> Polymarket removed one of its anti-money-laundering programs during a fraud attack, alarming some staff; CEO Shayne Coplan downplayed risks
> Persistent engineering glitches have cost some customers thousands
> Internal audio & text messages reveal Coplan’s management style
> Some current & former employees & investors are concerned Poly has prioritized growth at all costs
> Company is trying to course-correct; eyeing an IPO by the end of 2027
> Talks with Drake fell through; rapper name-dropped Poly in a song anyways; a market on the album saw suspicious trading
And more. Gift link below.
wsj.com/business/polymarkets…
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For a time, a hacker could sign up for Polymarket with an existing user’s SSN, and immediately gain access to all the user’s linked bank accounts and debit cards without needing a username or password.
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Nick Devor retweeted
TIMES INVESTIGATION
How DraftKings Uses A.I. to Target the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose
Data science helps determine who receives betting incentives, but the company has resisted using similar technology to protect gamblers at risk of addiction.
nytimes.com/2026/09/19/busin… via @NYTimes
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Nick Devor retweeted
Blood boiling. Not a good look for OpenAI or Greg Brockman here:
"ah nice" in response to "a hack to get around nytimes paywall" in his efforts "to scrape" The Times website. After many points on his bragging about OpenAI's substitution for news. /4
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"Engineers are chainsmoking to power through coding sprints. Venture capitalists and founders are talking burn rates while burning tar. For some in tech, amid the noise of optimization, smoking has become the new cignal."
Fantastic article in Business Insider today.
Yes, people in tech still smoke cigs.
Take @stephen_revamp, who shared cigarettes with the staffers of an "enormous" Chinese tech company. It cemented one of his biggest deals.
"By the end of the night, it's us and our prospects ripping cigs in the karaoke lounge," he says.
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The CFTC has launched an investigation into fraud in the market for carbon credits, the regulator’s director of enforcement David Miller said today.
“Efforts that are taken by bad actors in new spaces will not go unnoticed,” Miller said.
Hello from the 72nd floor of the 1WTC.
Here today for the Attending the Digital Asset Compliance and Market Integrity Summit put on by @Solidus_Labs.
Delegates from the CFTC, SEC, Kalshi and more are here.
Will post news as it comes…
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Hello from the 72nd floor of the 1WTC.
Here today for the Attending the Digital Asset Compliance and Market Integrity Summit put on by @Solidus_Labs.
Delegates from the CFTC, SEC, Kalshi and more are here.
Will post news as it comes…
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Inbox: FanDuel and Prime Video partner for live bet tracking with Thursday Night Football.
Users link their Amazon Prime and FanDuel accounts to watch games with their active bets shown on screen.
"The bet tracking feature does not offer the ability to place bets directly on Prime Video," FanDuel said. "In addition to tracking personal bets, the Bet Tracking experience presents a rotating feed of live odds, lines and probabilities associated with popular bets, including moneylines, spreads, totals, parlays, and more."
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Nick Devor retweeted
Nick's worthwhile story here takes me back to Aug. 2024. The Sports Betting Alliance (which FanDuel is a member of) was asking then for the CFTC to permit "an institutional futures market accessible to licensed sports betting operators" for hedging purposes.
SCOOP: FanDuel and other sports betting operators are market making on Kalshi.
In its Q1 earnings report, FanDuel-parent Flutter announced that it was market making "on a major, third-party prediction market platform.”
That platform is Kalshi, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Many other sports betting operators are trading on Kalshi, too, according to a Kalshi spokesperson.
“FanDuel competes with thousands of other users in a fair environment on an open platform,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “If a regular user wants to offer a better price, or market make on the same terms, they can. There’s no special deal just for FanDuel. We have hundreds of market makers on combos, including individuals.”
FanDuel’s trading on Kalshi is concentrated in combo trades, where multiple individual yes-or-no predictions are linked together for a massive payout if each prediction proves correct. When a trader builds a combo, power-users and institutional players on Kalshi’s platform—known as market makers—offer competing bids to take the other side of the combo bets.
From FanDuel’s perspective, market making for combo trades on Kalshi is not so different from setting parlay odds on its sportsbook. “It’s a way of us making money from our pricing expertise,” Flutter CEO Peter Jackson previously told me in an interview. “That’s ultimately what we do in our core business.”
That market-making opportunity is growing quickly. Kalshi saw $21.4 billion in combo trading volume over the past 30 days, according to @AldrinResearch, accounting for 49% of all trading volume on its platform.
@FanDuel and other operators’ presence on @Kalshi underscores the similarities between sports betting on prediction markets and sportsbooks.
No matter how they wager on Sunday football, retail traders and casual bettors are up against professional oddsmakers.
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SCOOP: FanDuel and other sports betting operators are market making on Kalshi.
In its Q1 earnings report, FanDuel-parent Flutter announced that it was market making "on a major, third-party prediction market platform.”
That platform is Kalshi, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Many other sports betting operators are trading on Kalshi, too, according to a Kalshi spokesperson.
“FanDuel competes with thousands of other users in a fair environment on an open platform,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “If a regular user wants to offer a better price, or market make on the same terms, they can. There’s no special deal just for FanDuel. We have hundreds of market makers on combos, including individuals.”
FanDuel’s trading on Kalshi is concentrated in combo trades, where multiple individual yes-or-no predictions are linked together for a massive payout if each prediction proves correct. When a trader builds a combo, power-users and institutional players on Kalshi’s platform—known as market makers—offer competing bids to take the other side of the combo bets.
From FanDuel’s perspective, market making for combo trades on Kalshi is not so different from setting parlay odds on its sportsbook. “It’s a way of us making money from our pricing expertise,” Flutter CEO Peter Jackson previously told me in an interview. “That’s ultimately what we do in our core business.”
That market-making opportunity is growing quickly. Kalshi saw $21.4 billion in combo trading volume over the past 30 days, according to @AldrinResearch, accounting for 49% of all trading volume on its platform.
@FanDuel and other operators’ presence on @Kalshi underscores the similarities between sports betting on prediction markets and sportsbooks.
No matter how they wager on Sunday football, retail traders and casual bettors are up against professional oddsmakers.
NEW: When you make a parlay bet on a prediction market, FanDuel might be your counterparty.
Flutter, the parent-company of FanDuel, announced in its Q1 earnings report today that "in April, we began trialing market-making services on a major, third-party prediction market platform.”
FanDuel has its own prediction market platform, FanDuel Predicts, which $FLUT CEO Peter Jackson tells me is mainly for onboarding new bettors in states yet to legalize traditional sports betting.
“I want to do both,” Jackson says. “I want to make money through market-making and I want to acquire customers.”
The prediction market market-making Flutter is doing is mainly in prediction market parlay or "combo" bets, Jackson says.
Prediction markets say they differ from sports betting operators because they aren't the house. But now they may be pitting you against the house of Flutter.
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Read my full report for free here:
barrons.com/articles/nfl-bet…
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How many prediction markets can you find?
All these players competing for the same prize...
Amazing article art for my preview of prediction market competition during the NFL season by @dave__murray
European football summer is OVER — American football is back, and a dozen+ sports prediction markets will be vying for bettors.
NFL fans are in for an onslaught of prediction marketing. Kalshi and Polymarket will tap into billion-dollar funding rounds. $DKNG and $FLUT will put up to $400 million in prediction-market customer acquisition this season.
Everyone else—Coinbase, Crypto-dot-com, Fanatics, Novig, OG, PrizePicks, ProphetX, Rothera, and Underdog—will need to spend just to survive.
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European football summer is OVER — American football is back, and a dozen+ sports prediction markets will be vying for bettors.
NFL fans are in for an onslaught of prediction marketing. Kalshi and Polymarket will tap into billion-dollar funding rounds. $DKNG and $FLUT will put up to $400 million in prediction-market customer acquisition this season.
Everyone else—Coinbase, Crypto-dot-com, Fanatics, Novig, OG, PrizePicks, ProphetX, Rothera, and Underdog—will need to spend just to survive.
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Read my full story for free here:
barrons.com/articles/nfl-gam…
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Nick Devor retweeted
I think you can connect the decline on overall literacy and the return of 'orality' to the fact so many people presume every news story is explicitly moralistic and not just 'here is an interesting thing happening in the world today that you may not know about'
"AI has destroyed Kenyan jobs because American college students no longer hire them to write fake college essays" is not a framing I expected even the NYT to have
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1 in 5 see sports betting as a form of "nontraditional" investing, according to a new Bank of America report.
Key findings:
- 88% of online bettors in July were Gen Z and Millennials
- In 2026, the median deposit account balance of those who participated in online betting was 59% of those who didn’t bet
- 20% of BofA survey respondents consider sports betting to be “nontraditional” investing, and Gen Z is twice as likely to believe so.
- Among all respondents, “buying event contracts on prediction markets was more likely to be considered an investment than sports betting,” the report says.
- “Customers typically recover less than 75 cents for every dollar transferred to online betting platforms.”
“We should spend less time criticizing Gen Zers for gambling and more time criticizing the people and companies that have spent billions of dollars conflating gambling and investing,” says Isaac Rose-Berman (@roundrobin42), gambling policy fellow at @aibm_org.
“My grandfather lost a lot of money gambling, but he was still able to save for retirement because those accounts and activities were siloed,” Rose-Berman says. “If he were alive today and could instantly sell his stocks to bet on the NFL, he would have made far more bad financial decisions.”
[Findings in the research were compiled using Bank of America customer spending data and through a survey conducted by the bank in March of 2,351 respondents.]
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Read a full write-up of the Bank of America report here:
barrons.com/articles/sports-…
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