EYES ON THE GULF: Getting many, many questions about the weather situation Friday and Saturday. Here are the key messages tonight...
*Tropical Depression 9 will likely be Hurricane Isaias when it moves into the Central Gulf Coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
*NHC forecasts the hurricane to be at category two strength with 100 mph winds about 6 hours before landfall. Some weakening is possible as it moves onshore due to strong winds aloft/shear, but it still is expected to be a dangerous hurricane with major impact.
*Attached is the output from the Google DeepMind FNV3 model, which has performed well. The mean of the ensemble members takes the hurricane right into Orange Beach/Perdido Key. But please remember a hurricane is not a dot or a skinny line; the impact will extend far from the center, especially to the east.
*We will get a first look at storm surge potential tomorrow. Remember, the storm surge issues will be along and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
*Although the storm is expected to be compact for the next few days, it will likely grow significantly in size, particularly on the eastern side, when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Therefore, based on the forecast uncertainty and expected larger size, don't focus too much on the forecast points.
*The system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches along the Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday, with localized totals up to 10 inches. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
*Rain amounts Saturday across inland parts of Alabama will be generally in the 1-3 inch range, with some flooding possible.
*Gradient winds will be highest on the coast, of course; gusts to 80/90 mph are possible there. For inland Alabama, gusts to 30/40 mph are possible Saturday, mainly over the western half of the state.
*Isolated tornadoes are possible across Alabama Saturday. Tropical tornadoes are typically short lived, low topped, and under the radar. They can touch down with little to no warning.
*The weather improves Sunday as the tropical low moves well to the north of Alabama. Most of the Gulf Coast will be dry Sunday and through all of next week.
*With any tropical system, forecasts can and probably will change. Be watching for updates.
I will have a new video briefing here by 5:15a CT tomorrow...