Warsh at the IMF: Growth Meets the Hammer
Kevin Warsh offered the right diagnosis in his IMF interview: “The investment surge isn’t by accident.” “Policy matters.” He should follow that insight to its conclusion: Trump’s America First policies are helping build the microeconomic foundations needed to escape secular stagnation.
For years, the prescription was more demand. Bernanke discussed helicopter money; Krugman championed fiscal stimulus. My objection is that stimulating expenditure within a globalized economy was no substitute for making America a more attractive place to build, manufacture, and invest. To be blunt decades of Keynesian demand side, helicopter money was an abject failure.
Trump and Bessent’s Hamiltonian approach changes those incentives. The 100% deduction for qualifying production facilities, with its January 2031 placed-in-service deadline, rewards domestic capital formation. Combined with AI, America First offers a route to escape secular stagnation to expanding productive capital and the re tooling of America.
Why do so many on Wall Street and inside central banks miss this? Too often, their framework starts with aggregate spending, employment, and inflation, not the changing incentives beneath them. Strong growth becomes a warning to tighten rather than a reason to reassess the economy’s productive limits.
Hall and Woodford’s Nobel-recognized work underscores why microfoundations matter. Businesses respond to expected returns and incentives. Their decisions shape macroeconomic outcomes.
Greenspan understood this. He recognized productivity improvements before the statistics confirmed them and resisted pressure for further tightening in 1996. Warsh acknowledged the same possibility at the IMF, calling AI “a positive supply shock in the medium term.”
Yet he is failing the policy test. Hiking into an oil-induced negative growth shock is a mistake: demand-management dogma applied to a supply disruption.
September’s core CPI makes the problem concrete. Shelter accounted for roughly three-fifths of its monthly increase. Higher rates can make construction harder to finance, delaying the supply response needed to ease rents.
This is a transition, not an overheating machine. Productivity gains arrive unevenly; borrowing costs hit exposed borrowers immediately. Monetary policy is a blunt hammer, striking housing, smaller businesses, and debt refinancing.
Escaping stagnation should support a more normal yield curve. It does not justify crushing today’s cyclical economy.
Warsh sees the investment boom. He must recognize its policy foundations and stop obstructing its diffusion.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is joining the 'SI' bandwagon, referring to AI as SI.
Warsh sat down with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva for a fireside chat on Friday, discussing SI, the outlook for the US and global economy, as well as inflation.