Geoffrey Hinton told BBC Newsnight that a 10 percent chance of AI killing all of us within a decade is “not unreasonable.” Yesterday he briefed senators alongside two AI researchers at Bernie Sanders’ invitation on the “extraordinary dangers” AI poses to humanity, then told reporters Congress has maybe a year.
My test for how much anyone believes those numbers: who is cashing out their IRAs? I’m not. You’re not. If nobody is cashing out, we believe in a better future than we admit.
I call myself an apocaloptimist (borrowed from the AI Doc movie), and I want to bring this conversation down from Skynet versus curing cancer and back to the work in front of us.
Our grandparents lived with the certainty that a bomb could fall on them any afternoon. The danger was not imaginary, and the feared outcome was not inevitable.
Every technology shift has brought harm and good at the same time: television, the car, the internet. That last one invented my entire field of cybersecurity along the way.
Focus on one side only and you build a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The risk is not zero, but catastrophe is not a foregone conclusion.
I do not think cybersecurity’s job is to predict whether humanity exists in five years. Our job is to secure what is already here.
AI safety and cybersecurity are different jobs that look identical when described badly. Explaining the difference is on us.
AI safety teaches the teenager the rules of the road.
Cybersecurity makes sure the seatbelts work, the engine runs, and the brake pads are there.
AI security needs both.
The only way to guarantee the teenager never crashes is to never let them drive. (Our field’s old joke about burying the computer at the bottom of the ocean has the same flaw: perfectly secure, perfectly useless.)
Preventing AI use is not an answer.
Safety researchers, security practitioners, forensic investigators, incident responders, governance leaders, and operators all belong at the same table. Right now they are not. Yesterday's briefing had three AI risk researchers. The labs do better but not by enough.
Pacing what comes next does not secure what is already here.
While we argued over Dario Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” letter, Anthropic’s own Sept. 10 threat report got buried. Agent swarms, a Russia-linked espionage campaign, all observed and disrupted, with IOCs you can download and hunt with today. I know which document deserves the afternoon.
When people ask whether AI is going to take out humanity, my opinion is worth what everyone else’s is: nothing, percentages included.
This field has handled every ugly thing the internet produced, and nobody handed us a probability of success first. Ask me again in a decade. I plan on being here to answer.