That is a very sharp framework.
In niche manufacturing, the first re-rating rarely waits for a full P&L transformation. It begins when the market recognises that the company has crossed a threshold that cannot be replicated by capex alone: specialised equipment, process learning, certification, customer qualification and failure-critical products.
NRB and Sunflag capture the two ends of this journey.
NRB
• Market is pricing: aerospace access, AS9100D certification, precision-engineering capability and bearing optionality.
• Must prove: initial orders convert into repeat, platform-level aerospace revenue.
Sunflag
• Market is pricing: VIM/VAR/ESR capability, aerospace approvals and superalloy optionality.
• Must prove: commercial alloy volumes, mix shift and sustained margin improvement.
Capability earns attention. Qualification earns the premium. Execution decides whether it lasts.
Invest in niche companies with capabilities. First rerating happens with just capabilities. Next round happens if and when execution comes. A quick hack : If you can count the number of competitors on fingers, its a niche domain. Had personal experience with Sedemac, Indo MIM, MV Electro, HBL and latest being Sunflag. Generally market gives a loose rope to these companies even if they miss 1-2 Qs of earnings. In long term off course earnings will have to catch up.