...mostly thinking about markets!

India
There's NO margin of safety IMO for the current/ next generation to expect human life/society to remain the same. All we need is one black swan event & butterfly effect can wipe out sizeable population. Especially for densely populated countries... #antinatalism #childfree
P K retweeted
Both my parents were accused under the SCST act by disgruntled coworkers. This happened in 2002 and 2003- so they faced a fact finding commission and were not harassed further. I left India.
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“The most dangerous form of blindness is believing that your perspective is the only reality.” — Friedrich Nietzsche
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You inevitably give your day to entropy as it unfolds. Don't hand it the chaos of your feed in the first minute of waking.
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🤔Same with intelligence... Humans are just sophisticated monkey species. Question to ask is "Why have some people gotten wiser?" #Reservation is the dumbest idea to redistribute intelligence in a era where gaining intelligence / opportunities knowledge is NOW ubiquitous!
“The human race began in poverty, so there’s no mysterious explanation as to why some people are poor. The question is why have some people gotten prosperous.” - Thomas Sowell
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Govts shld RATHER subsidise internet access to the poor & unprivileged in society!🤔 Guardrails ought to be: ALL subsidized internet & Algos on it have to be ENRICHing to intelligence rather than addicitive dumbing down algos. #Meritocracy vs #Reservation #ReservationReform
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First in my bloodline to see free & fair elections in WB. Gyanesh thwarting five decade old, industrial scale election rigging machinery is one of the greatest achievements of independent India, up there with Sreedharan building Delhi Metro. No wonder the has-beens want him out
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First in my bloodline to see lower mortgage rates in India compared to America.
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Looks like essential features of liberal democracy are 1. Serving non veg at global events 2. No internal disagreement or debate in any policy making 3. Out of date electoral rolls, so dead people & wrong people can vote 4. Voting for duffers due to blind anti incumbency
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Can someone explain this to me? Punjab was split in 1947. Half went to India. Half went to Pakistan. Pakistani Punjab is huge. Punjabis sit at the centre of Pakistani politics. Major Sikh shrines are on the Pakistan side. So why do Khalistanis only want to carve Khalistan out of Indian Punjab? Why never Pakistan’s Punjab? If this is about the Sikh homeland, why ignore the half that holds so many of the oldest gurdwaras? What is the real motive? Why is the demand always Indian territory and never Pakistani territory? If I have this wrong, explain it.
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PB Fintech which was a 90,000 Cr mcap company yesterday, is down ~30% today. Who is to say only microcaps are risky? Market cap doesn't define risk. The expectations embedded in the price do.
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As I have been repeating this over and over and over again. Last 10 yrs were a global abberation where multiples kept on rising. I think that is ending/ended and we may see multiples more aligned with history across the world. Yes 40x+ normalised earnings is exception rather than a rule. Be very careful of what you are willing to pay for a business. India still has a lot of froth in midcap small caps names where some names are trading 15-20x revenues!!!! Avoid them like a plague.
$AAPL. I love the products. I am typing this on one. The stock is a different conversation. * 2009 to 2019: earnings per share grew 25% a year. You could buy the stock for about 16x earnings. * 2019 to today: earnings per share grew 17% a year. The stock trades at 39x. * Growth slowed by a third. Price per dollar of earnings more than doubled. * And that 17% flatters the business. About 4 points of it came from buybacks shrinking the share count. Strip that out and the business itself grew 13% a year. * Buybacks are wonderful when the stock is cheap. At 16x, a year of Apple's profits could retire about 6% of the company. At 39x, the same profits retire about 2.5%. The higher the stock goes, the less the buyback does. * Where did the growth come from? Apple sold 231 million iPhones in 2015 and about 247 million last year, per IDC. That is 7% more phones in ten years. iPhone revenue is up 35% because the average phone costs about $175 more. Raising prices is a fine business. It is not a growth business. * So: slower growth, mostly from pricing, a buyback that does less every year, and a stock priced at more than twice what investors paid for a decade. * I have seen this movie. Walmart in 2000. Nike in 2021. Nothing wrong with the company. The stock got ahead of the business. Either the business grows into the price, or the price comes down to the business.
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Before Parag Parikh became one of India’s most respected investors, there was a rather unusual encounter with Harshad Mehta, involving Rs. 500. The story goes like this… Harshad Mehta had discovered a weakness in the Indian banking system. Banks were sitting on huge piles of deposits but weren’t allowed to invest in stock markets directly. They could, however, lend to other banks and earn interest income. The main tool in the hands of these brokers was an RFD (ready forward deals) between banks. An RFD was a secured short- term loan, usually 15 days, from one bank to another. The borrowing bank would sell the RFDs to a bank and buy it back at the end of tenure at a slightly higher price. Mehta was able to convince bank managers to provide him capital under the guise of selling RFDs to them. Once the money was transferred into his personal account, he would use this to shore up stock prices of major companies like ACC, Sterlite Industries and others. When the stock prices went up sharply, he would sell them off and pass on part of the proceeds to the banks. For example, a stock like ACC (which was trading in 1991 for ₹200 a share) rose to nearly ₹9,000 in just 3 months. Parag Parikh and Harshad Mehta knew each other from brokerage circles and were visiting a bank branch when the offer was made. Parikh refused to ride with the ‘Big Bull’, and the rest is history. Incidentally, when the scam unravelled, Parikh grumbled to his wife that Mehta dealt with crores but was yet to return him a small amount of money. “It was around ₹250 or ₹500,” - From the book Timeless, a portrait of a man who took the road less travelled. And there is a larger lesson here: The way someone treats a small obligation can sometimes reveal more about their relationship with money than the way they handle a large one. Character is often revealed not by the size of the transaction, but by how seriously we treat the obligation.
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Selling options is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Works great until you trip PBFintech 1300 Put saw 2121x returns 1400 Put saw 383x returns Go figure. Selling options can bankrupt you!
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Insurance Sector: Have had a bearish view on this sector.. discussed at length on this podcast recorded in July this year … Regulatory arbitrage still exists.. question to ask .. why is ULIP Tax free ?
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The US 10Y Note Yield is now moving in a literal straight-line higher, up to 5.13%. This is no longer an issue that we have months or years to address. This is unsustainable.
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I demand ₹5 cr for Professor Doolla for the amount of mental trauma he & his family was put into✊ #CompesateDoolla
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PB fintech is a BEST example of futures hedging. Never buy a breakout without a corresponding Put. Those insurance wings feel like an unbearable cost but they help you stay in the game!!

ALT Travel Insurance GIF by Real Family Travels

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P K retweeted
SEBI is looking to reduce margin requirements for longer term derivative contracts — Tuhin Kanta Pandey, SEBI Chairman
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It's being claimed that Sahil was so intelligent that his AIR Rank was 614. Meaning, even a lie will be told in such a way that you'll believe it's the truth. Sahil's rank of 614 was within his own SC category. That means his overall rank must have been at least above 20,000. With a rank of around 20,000, the course and IIT that Sahil got wouldn't even be available to a General Category student at rank 2,000. Let me also mention that Sahil's father holds a good position in a bank, his mother is a teacher, and he used an iPhone to use ChatGPT. Meaning, by any economic or social measure, he was nowhere close to being "Dalit." This - this is exactly what reservation (quota system) means.
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P K retweeted
Foreign buying of T-Bills has fallen -80% YoY, per U.S. Treasury data
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