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Sloth Capital retweeted
The S&P 500 is 0.7% below a record high, yet 430 of those stocks are 21.7% below their highs. That means on average 86% of the stocks are in a bear market. Breadth has only been this bad twice, in January 1973 and in 1999/2000. On both occasions, the S&P then crashed nearly 50%
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Sloth Capital retweeted
Is Muse gonna beat the integrated Apple personal agent? Because it’s coming
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Sloth Capital retweeted
Equity investors a strange breed man. They will tell you with a straight face that Oracle at 140 down from 345 is too risky here and then pile into something like Crowdstrike after a blistering rally at 50x sales
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Better sell $ORCL, wouldn't want to own AI infrastructure during a major positive demand catalyst for AI.
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Sloth Capital retweeted
We are excited to announce we are partnering deeply with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores, offering people an easy and delightful way to shop and check out with Muse.
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This is all very bullish for $SHOP, I figured I might be stating the obvious but the stock hasn't moved at all on this.
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My 2c on the concentration debate that nobody asked for: Math dictates that more positions is better. Volatility scales slower than the returns from more independent bets, and turning over a very small edge a lot of times is better than trying to find one big edge. 1/2
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$DBX pretty good "inverted short" imo.
My entire Claude Life lives on Dropbox. Everything gets written there so all files are accessible via phone, Laptop and Desktop. It has become quite seamless.
It really helps when using projects and co-work.
I also use Obsidian for Trading Journals, Deep Dives etc. These are also stored in Dropbox via input in Claude so they sync out of that.
I'm quite sure that I could switch AI Provider and it would continue to work the same without any headaches.
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We recently published a new report called "To Free or Not to Free (Cash Flow)." Free cash flow (FCF) is a topic of interest for the hyperscalers. The main premise is that negative free cash flow is fine as long as the returns on investment are sufficient. In the report, we cover 5 areas:
1. We offer a working definition of FCF and examine where some leading technology companies (5 hyperscalers + 3 others) stand today using results and consensus forecasts;
2. We examine whether the acceleration of investment spending changes each company’s position within the life cycle;
3. We calculate return on incremental invested capital (ROIIC) for each of the companies;
4. We look at the relationship between free cash flow and ROIC;
5. We look at how consensus estimates have changed for sales, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), and capital expenditures. These drivers provide a sense of what determines ROIIC.
We use only results and consensus forecasts (which are subject to a lot of change as point 5 shows).
morganstanley.com/content/da…
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