SNL@stevcapital

A bad investor trying to get by…

Joined April 2009
5 Photos and videos
Replying to @chrisalbon
43
367
4,426
195,204
"If you have been in the investing game for a while, and you still don't know who the contra is, you're the contra." - Someone
1
282
The inflation numbers came out above "median economist" estimates (as has been the case for most of the year)... Aglos puked the market on headline, NDX down 3% on the open, but then clawed it's way back over the next couple hrs.
1
I think the main reason here is that the market was so oversold into the event... Has basically been one-way downward traffic for two months, with the past few days being especially brutal. Don't think there's much more to read into it...
Bulls out in full force these couple weeks... Getting increasingly confident as the market goes up. Regardless of whether the lows are in or not, we're due for a correction...
Feels like US 10yr yields have either already peaked, or are close to peaking. Markets are increasing pricing in recession which will dampen future inflation expectations + fed hikes. At the same time, we're seeing treasuries act as traditional flight-to-safety asset again
1
From an equities standpoint, would fade the traditional "rate-rise" beneficiaries. Life insurance is the one that comes to mind immediately, most sensitive to long-end-rates.
Humans have an inherent mental urge to explain and rationalise the things at occur around them. In reality, the world is extremely complex and nuanced. This is where religion, heuristics, ideology, "isms", stereotypes, bias etc come in...
1
All these things help us explain and rationalise the world around us. Part of it is laziness, but a lot of it just stems from the fact that the world would be too complex and overwhelming otherwise.
1
An honorable goal seems to be to try and avoid these cognitive biases / easy ways out to the extent possible, and attempt to think objectively, independently and deeply about subjects... Not sure how possible or realistic this really is though.
Replying to @IGN
20
1,002
13,963
SNL retweeted
Jake
@EconomPic
15 Mar 2022
This is almost unbelievable… The MSCI China Index total return (ignoring any fees, taxes, etc…) since its 12/31/92 inception is approaching a 0% nominal cumulative return China is 30% of $EEM
67
470
2,193
When Austria, Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland are neutral: 😇😍😘 When India, Israel, Turkey, and UAE are neutral: "Peacemaking is a fig leaf behind which to hide moral bankruptcy and to justify the maintenance of deep commercial ties with Russia..." theguardian.com/world/2022/m…

The world leaders pushing for peace in Ukraine, and their motives

They claim to be honest brokers, but is that just a fig leaf to cover their moral bankruptcy?

theguardian.com
70
595
2,502
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts" - Bertrand Russell
2
1
Don't quite understand the fascination that some macro folks (incl. those on Twitter), have with gold. We've had massive debasement of currency, record inflation, negative real rates, and a war. All should benefit gold, but has been rangebound for 18 months.
1
What are the remaining upside catalysts? Rates are as negative as they will ever be... Inflation will fade marginally in 2H, and rates are heading up. Max Russia/Ukraine fear might be behind us too. What's needed to push gold the next leg higher? #gold #XAUUSD
"The US mostly reacted to the technological rise of the USSR & then Japan by investing a great deal more in itself, and it's mostly reacted to the technological rise of China by trying to kneecap leading Chinese companies like Huawei or SMIC." - @danwwang on Sinica, out Thursday.
13
30
143
Load more