Many in the West expect India to be able to balance China.
@PhillipsPOBrien in the Atlantic. This is presumably based on the demographic prior, together with rosy and fraudulent WorldBank estimates of the decline of poverty in India. There is no possibility of India balancing China. Here’s why.
National power is a function of human capital and the general competence of national institutions. India has slowly made gains in both. But these gains are dwarfed by those made by China in both rapidity and magnitude.
The average stunting rate for kids in Indian states is 36%. It is 12% in China. This does not only mean that we can mechanically ‘mark down’ their populations by the same factors (0.64 vs 0.88), which removes the entire population advantage. It also serves as a signal for the general scale of productive workers available to Indian and Chinese engineers, firms and governments.
This is not mere theory. India has more men of military age than China, and is not far in the number of engineering and STEM graduates. But China dwarfs India in mfg va, advanced (ATP) mfg va, and intermediates mfg va; steel, electricity, and auto production.
There is a possibility that the Indians will eventually figure out that they need to make deep investments in everyday people. If that happens, India may begin to close the gap with China. But this process will take many decades. There is no possibility of the gap closing any time in the next few decades.
So, India’s not going to pull the West’s chestnuts out of the fire any time soon. In the underlying balance of power, the world today is unipolar with China as the unipole. Only the US is today within shouting distance of China. Roughly speaking, it is half as strong. No one else is in the running.