On September 25, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 5.0%: bit.ly/32EYojR. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.

Meanwhile I am bleeding out of every apeture of my body but have never been so calm and, dare I say, happy. I am long OTM calls on TLT. Most impact per buck so why TLT otherwise be playing in term repo and basis trade (hunter killer slayer of Citadel crew even though thier IQ double mine) get confident idiot arrogant folks to write me puts long dur then convert them to calls with underlying long mopping up all the specific repo and various curve trades (what we did on 9 1/4) but for now all I can do is calls on TLT and I am bleeding. Even tearing up with blood. Ebola like loss. But I am happy as my goal is to be realized as will have the largest speculative profit in my life. And compared to you I am likely very old. Three things will converge like some madcap accelerator physics all colliding into each other. 1. At least 2/3 if not 3/4 of AI and all the attached debt and circular financing is destroyed, kaput. Likely NVDA goes "poof" and perhaps AMZN doesn't make it. That bad. I thought would be 100% but Deontological Muse of META will thrive. 2. Trump ruined - I think de Toqueville got it right the US is at heart Rawls not Habermas. The US Constitution once again makes it through this severe constitutional crisis. 3. The Federal Reserve will be purged of Neo Wicksell and become again a monetary agency under Congress (part of #2 above. Likely a major bank fails in the process. And a life insurer. Theae three will collide at same time. Epic stuff. Check out your pension stuff. Check out ERISA law stuff. Howling mobs stuff. Likely extreme international turmoil stuff. How about them apples?

Buying more OTM calls on TLT.

A nasty combination for risk assets? Vol up Oil up Yields up USD up Yup

Aramco CEO Eyes "Fourth & Fifth" Oil Export Routes To Break Hormuz Chokehold zerohedge.com/geopolitical/a…

BREAKING: Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf makes a post celebrating the US 10Y Note Yield rising above 5.10%. “Happy 5.1% 10Y America, we’ll return you to 1970s rates,” he says.

House of Bessent better put a floor on those Bonds now 🫣

$TLT 🙋‍♂️

10yr just blew through 5.20%

Looks like @SecScottBessent only bought back $4.1bn out of max $10bn of long end bonds. Guess he didnt like the price

Bessent trying to bring down the yield curve

A client just texted me, "well, I guess the war is over." I was confused and thought maybe I missed some news item. So the client just sent me back a chart of the 10yr yield. Chapeau!