OpenAI just announced that the $200 subscription will get half the amount of usage moving forward It’s clear where all of this is going All AI companies within the next 2 years will exclusively use API pricing. No more subscriptions Subs only made sense when companies were willing to lose billions of dollars to get you into their ecosystem Now that basically every AI company will be attempting to go public, they’ll no longer be able to burn extraordinary amounts of money They’ll have to report their earnings to the street, and if the number isn’t going up and to the right, that’ll be really bad I don’t think this is doomsday. The cheaper models like Luna and Sonnet are now actually really good. Compared to 6 months ago, they’d actually be frontier That’s more than enough to be spectacularly productive for a good price The consumer behavior is going to have to change. You are going to need to be fine with using an intelligence level appropriate for your work. Not just Astra 6 Max for every single thing you do If you have a Ferrari and a Model 3 in your driveway, you don’t drive the Ferrari to pick up milk from 7/11. Sometimes you use the daily driver car The days of AI subsidies are coming to an end, and it’s probably time we start getting used to it. The party is over.

Cloudflare just made it possible to charge AI agents to access your site. Sounds small, but it's not. It's the start of an internet where agents are the customers and websites are the resources they pay to use. Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=MNNfat_Q…

there's a conspiracy that the big labs want you to replace labor with tokens you should replace them with software why would you replace labor with another resource that's more expensive? compute is the cheapest resource possible use compute

The biggest opportunities right now: 1. build for solving loneliness (the more AI floods everything, the more people crave real human connection, IRL and small social) 2. build for agents that need to spend money (they're getting virtual cards and budgets, someone builds the spend controls, fraud protection, receipts) 3. build for people drowning in AI output (everyone generates infinite drafts now, the bottleneck moved to reviewing and choosing, build the judgment layer) 4. build for the burnout economy (everyone is expected to always be on and always optimizing, and the backlash toward rest, slowness, and enough is building) 5. build for verifying humans (deepfakes broke trust, every dating app, marketplace, and video call needs proof-of-human within 2 years) 6. build for the physical world (the trades, hardware, robots that AI is finally reaching) 7. build for the agent that answers the phone (every local business misses calls after 5pm, a voice agent that books the job is worth thousands a month) 8. build for the aging (70M+ boomers who want to stay healthy, sharp, and connected) 9. build for the LLM-search land grab (being the cited answer is the new SEO) 10. build for the newly automated (the paralegal, the analyst, the marketer whose job just changed and needs to reskill fast) 11. build for the seat-pricing collapse (software repricing from $50/seat to per-outcome, whoever nails outcome billing wins a category) 12. build for AI enablement (95% of businesses use nothing beyond ChatGPT, someone has to onboard the other 95%) 13. build for the agency everyone resents (businesses pay $1k/mo to agencies they hate, an agent that does 80% of it undercuts the model) 14. build for verticals on 2011 software (dentists, HOAs, contractors, all overdue for an AI-native rebuild) 15. build for reviving dead software (thousands of abandoned apps with real users, agents can maintain what a team couldn't, buy and revive) 16. build for markets too small to matter before (500 lobster fishermen was never worth a team, now it's a weekend and a real business) 17. build for agents hiring agents (a shadow economy is forming, it needs escrow, reputation, and dispute resolution for machines) 18. build for the anti-AI premium (as everything gets generated, human-made and analog become status symbols people pay up for) 19. build for distribution-first (anyone can build the product now, so the audience is the moat, media company first, product second) 20. build for the reinvention of college (what does an MBA even mean anymore) 21. build for a world with more free time than it knows what to do with (if AI takes the busywork, the question becomes what people do with the hours, and that's a civilization sized market) note: more trends/ideas @ideabrowser (free to sign up) 22. build for the return to the physical (screens fill with slop, people crave the real world, the hands-on, the local, the analog) 23. build for the caregiving wave. The population is aging fast, tens of millions are caring for parents, and the whole burden is landing on families with no support. 24. build for the longevity shift (people want to live to 100 healthy, and a whole industry is forming around actively managing your own biology) 25. build for the housing and rootlessness problem (people can't afford to settle down, and the whole idea of a stable home base is up for grabs) 26. build for spiritual hunger (as institutions hollow out, the need for meaning, ritual, and belonging is exploding into new forms) KEEP BUILDING

If you think you're AI Native, here's a good test: When you're heading to bed tonight, are you asking yourself: "What agents can I be running over night to get a head start on my day tomorrow" If that's an honest thought, you're among the top .01% of AI users right now.

It’s well within Anthropic’s rights to compete in any market they choose. What’s funny, in this instance, are the number of Pharma companies, who through their unchecked use of Anthropic, are driving revenues into what they think is a model provider but is in fact a competitor lurking in the shadows thereby accelerating their own demise. I suspect any end market with reasonable ROCE that could be AI accelerated is on the table. If I were them, I’d probably do the same.

M&A is going nuts right now for AI startups. It's Monday at 10:58am and 2 people have already emailed me trying to buy my company, unsolicited. The X timeline is saying the "death of software" and RIP good times, I think there are TONS of buyers to scoop up AI native startups (with EBITDA). Some data: 1. Startups buying other startups jumped 18% in the first half of last year, driven almost entirely by a 30%+ surge in early-stage deals. 2. Private equity is sitting on over $2 trillion in dry powder and competing so hard they're paying about 3 turns of EBITDA more than strategic buyers just to win deals. 3. The market flipped to rewarding profit over growth: in 2021 growth mattered 2.5x more than profitability, and in 2026 a profitable business growing 25% beats one growing 50% while burning cash. This is one of the best times to build there has ever been. Cheap tools, hungry buyers, and insane opportunity to build the AI-native version of things. Anecdotally, based on a lot of people I know, there's a ton of M&A for startups that aren't reliant on Google SEO and built something truly AI-native in hardware, mobile apps, or vertical AI agents. Tune out the doom. Build something worth buying. Keep going.