tempocap tiers Charts 📈 and community 🏘️ patreon.com/posts/168901792

$NBIS Investment Thesis (~5000 words) I think you will need a few minutes to read this one, but I wanted to have a complete thesis that I won’t have to update for at least a few months. There are both the points from my original thesis and the new ones, such as pricing power or an asset-light model, are discussed. Looking forward to your feedback, and enjoy!

RT @GroupFinom: Pretty much the story of the last 3 months, and acceleration through September. Only the strongest balance sheets thrive w…

Great work Chris. This ranking should alarm every Australian and every policymaker. @AlboMP ’s CGT changes have made the family home the most tax-efficient asset in Australia and productive investment the least. That’s not reform. That’s how you lock capital in houses and starve growing companies of the money they need. A country that taxes aspiration will get less of it. PS LICs would go with ETFs in category B.

I think you are oversimplifying the concept of “spot” rates for leasing. Generally, tenants are very interested in powered shells available in the near-term and become less interested in ones available further into the future. This relative level of interest is reflected in what they are willing to pay in rent. Leases that are being signed and announced now are typically for sites available 12-18 months out, and they are being signed at the highest rates we have seen. But if you ask a hyperscaler about what they would commit to pay right now for a long-term lease for a site available in 2030+ (if they would even be interested now), they might offer to pay 7-8% YOC. At those levels, we would not commit to a lease and will wait if we have such a site available. The binding commitment we received here is for a lease starting 10 years from now at a rate in-line with today’s elevated market rates for powered shells available in the near-term from a very large and successful leading AI lab. This is a big deal and evidence of a long-term sustained demand environment in my opinion. I saw a few other questions along the lines of “Why sign now? Why not wait?” Presumably this logic is based on the idea that we should just wait 8.5 years until interest will be higher. My answer is that we have never seen interest at today’s elevated rates for a lease starting that far in the future and it provides an excellent projected IRR on our investment. Also, if we follow that advice, why should we ever sign a lease at all? Just keep waiting for infinitely higher lease rates. I don’t believe that is a winning strategy. Lastly, keep in mind that headline lease rates don’t tell the full story in an inflationary environment with fast-changing design and engineering standards. You need to consider other elements that can control your costs and financing risks. We are focused on maximizing a return on our investment while managing risks. (Note that this is also why revenue comparisons with neoclouds are somewhat irrelevant—they have a completely different cost and risk structure)

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition will introduce a Scrap Net Zero Bill into Parliament. Our Scrap Net Zero Bill will: - unleash all Australian energy resources (coal, oil, gas, uranium and renewables) to lower energy prices, - end all of Labor's carbon taxes that are costing us manufacturing jobs and pushing up the price of new cars, - stop the large scale roll out of wind and solar that is damaging our environment, destroying farmland and locking up large offshore areas from fishing, and - plan our energy grid so as to deliver YOU the lowest possible energy prices.

"There are now more than 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia, effectively creating an underclass of migrant workers who now count for more than 16 per cent of the working-age population." smh.com.au/politics/federal/…

UPtober is almost here. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has historically tended to rally sharply through the first two weeks of October. Nearly one-third of the time, $SPX formed its monthly low within the first week.

Chalmers to spend more on debt than Medicare afr.com/policy/economy/chalm…

AI's concentration risk: "Top 10% of customers account for 99.5% of model-serving spend and 99% of neocloud spend, leaving the bottom 90% of firms with 0.5% and 1%...The bottom line is that adoption is broadening while the spending base is not, and AI infrastructure will keep depending on a small set of heavy spenders until the tail scales up." This is certainly evidence of the technology's immaturity—over time the spending base will expand as more companies figure out how to effectively integrate AI to unlock operational value. However, it's also evidence that adoption challenges are far more persistent than the model builders anticipated. I quoted Sam Altman on this in my recent report on "The AI Trade" (sageroadresearch.com/product…): "The economy just has so much inertia. People just keep doing the same things. They keep buying from the same company. They keep using their tools in the same way. I think that’s actually a positive in many ways. It’s going to make this big transition in front of us go smoother and slower. But I think it means we’ve all been too ambitious on timelines." It's not just about inertia. AI is still plagued by its weaknesses, from hallucination to agentic workflows breaking down midstream. But to the inertia point, AI puts unprecedented transformational demands on enterprises. As I warned in my December report on "GenAI & Productivity" (sageroadresearch.com/product…): "As much attention was paid to the headline 95% failure estimate by MIT researchers, their explanation for that failure rate was likely a more important long-term consideration in understanding when and how companies will realize productivity gains from genAI. To quote the researchers: “The dominant barrier to crossing the GenAI Divide is not integration or budget, it is organizational design.” McKinsey is delivering a similar message: “Building a business for the agentic age will require a fundamental rewiring of how the business operates, innovates, and protects sources of value creation.” Deloitte is saying much the same: “This is not about adding another tool; it’s about fundamentally rethinking how work gets done from the top down.” It's difficult to look at modern history and identify an enabling technology that demanded the depth and speed of organizational transformation being suggested for genAI today." For all of AI's capabilities, there is no path to ~$2.5t in annual AI revenue (the estimatdd amount required to offset CAPEX) unless the vast majority of enterprises become relative "heavy spenders" on a manageable timeline. Instead, the tail is elongating slowly while evidence mounts that today's "heavy spenders" are pulling back their spending. According to Ramp data, the top 1% of spenders, the cohort that drives ~80% of OpenAI and Anthropic’s enterprise revenue, cut per-employee spend by nearly 10% in August. Chart link: apollo.com/wealth/insights-n…

'Australia is becoming a second-rate country again' 'Bigger government, higher taxes, more expensive energy, more regulated workplaces and closing off natural growth options will make Australia second-rate again" #ausbiz afr.com/policy/economy/austr…

Launch day! 🗽🇺🇸

Not understanding the outrage from the $IREN community here. It's been very clear that $NBIS and $CRWV have a large lead in tech, managed clusters, and higher stack offerings. This has been the result of different priorities up to this point from a very different set of beginnings. We did not participate as shareholders in Iren until we saw the right risk reward develop under $30 and with the Mirantis acquisition providing a clear path to improvement in these areas over time. Semi Analysis spoke directly towards clear improvements in Iren's newer facilities and offerings out of Sweetwater and Childress with a positive future outlook. It is very fair to call Iren out for marketing ahead of its current capabilities on an offering Iren did not even pretend to care about until this year. This changes nothing about the Iren investment case and very nice moat in power and land. In our view, this is another very poor look for certain parts of the community. Props to management for actually taking this one on the chin and seeking a better relationship moving forward with SA. Those crying about corrupt dealings between $NBIS $CRWV and SA are not doing the company or your shareholder base a favor. It looks very emotion driven and unprofessional and holds Iren back from moving past its association as a crypto-tied cyclical asset speculator.

$NBIS is today's free post patreon.com/posts/170490027

$NBIS upgrade to $399 🎯 fits with technical picture 📈 and we are moving towards a fresh breakout

RT @GroupFinom: When NYSE A/D Line falls 📉 below 200-DMA, this has proven a value opportunity for investors. Buying S&P 500 $SPX when bre…

JUST IN: Investigation reveals former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon reportedly worked with a “doomer PR firm” while launching his viral campaign warning of AI’s existential risks.

I’ve ranked 10 investments from least to most attractive under the new capital gains tax rules. What’s your #1? Where will you be investing?

Next tweet will be @AlboMP editing himself into the below picture Bookmark it