my friends call me thermous, they say I’m smart but also insane. waiting to see if it’s the good or bad type of insanity. views may be from psychosis

Insane asylum
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I would love everyone advocating for AI regulation to explain one question how it would cover open source models? Open source models are datasets of weights that can run on personal compute. Once they’ve been released and downloaded, you cannot stop them from spreading. Well, unless you want to create a massive surveillance state that has access to everyone’s person file, it would somewhat work. People would still get around it, China would still release them and many people would move to countries that allow them to use open source without restrictions. It’s not something we can regulate like an airplane. It’s not a drug that goes through an approval process. It’s data, math and compute. The only feasible way to restrict AI is outlaw technology as we know it today and only allow technology to be used on devices that have native government surveillance installed AFTER you forcibly confiscated all existing technology. Those pushing for AI regulation are pushing for a government that is extremely powerful and designed to serve their own interests. Effective Altruists think they’re the smartest most moral people and they, should be the only ones making decisions that a democracy makes today. Mass AI regulation like anthropic or Bernie Sanders’s wants will inevitably lead to an authoritarian state where freedom as we know it today is traded for “safety” from AI while personal agency is only allowed if it’s in pursuit of a government sanctioned cause
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This is nuts
🚨 1 can of Spam for $120. Food stamps have become the new ATM for fraudsters as they partner with local businesses to commit the fraud as they trade SNAP cards like Pokémon cards on the streets. Across America food stamp fraud is happening everywhere. It has become a billion dollar fraudulent industry as taxpayers fund the $100 billion program. We caught a fraudster on the streets of Seattle as she attempted to buy a can of spam and sushi for $120 in a food stamp for cash exchange, it’s a billion dollar fraudulent scheme stealing from the poor and hungry. This is a must watch and is happening everywhere. EXPOSE AND SHUT IT ALL DOWN.
I don’t think AI is going to slow down any field like physics or mathematics. In fact, it’ll do the exact opposite, they’re going to accelerate substantially. LLMs are good at doing something with prior knowledge but bad when there is not prior knowledge to go off. Humans will still need to approach problems differently and peer into the unknown in new ways to make discoveries. AI will only help them do that quicker. The only risk that is there are the frontier labs monitoring what those people do and use all their work to release findings quicker than the humans
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A lot of people are going to think about this until the IRA starts auditing AI processes tax returns and stories come out about how much an IRS audit costs you
one thing you start to realize as agents get insanely good is just how much of legacy software is basically workflow theater. there are so many legacy workflows that only exist because software historically couldn’t understand intent, gather context, make decisions, or take action for you. agents do not have this problem whatsoever, in fact they are designed to these exact things. e.g. take intuit & turbotax. nobody ever wanted to do taxes like that. most ppl want to hand over everything that happened financially that year & have the correct return filed. a lot of software like this is absolutely cooked. turbo tax is so fucking screwed that they will have to increase lobbying to even more record levels to continue the nonsense. get ready for bills like no ai in tax filing etc. these guys know they’re cooked, it’s just a matter of months now. maybe even less.
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thermous retweeted
We believe that the West can awaken from its long slumber – and rekindle the fire that was first lit in ancient Greece millennia ago.
Department of State
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From a guy who thought that there was no way Biden was senile, had incredible cognitive abilities and kamal bypassing a primary was textbook democracy
Do they think we’re stupid?
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I love how a publication like the la times isn’t biased at all and whenever Biden said anything that could be construed as very bad with selectively using quotes, they did that!
Trump suggests letting Iran 'take out' Los Angeles and San Diego at campaign rally latimes.com/california/story…
thermous retweeted
Marco Rubio: “We preoccupy ourselves more with the comfort of the worst than the potential of the best. We hold the most exceptional things among us hostage to the average.”
.@SecRubio: "Too often, these days, we build downwards. We design our standards to ensure that no one will lose. We preoccupy ourselves more with the comfort of the worst than the potential of the best. We hold the most exceptional things among us hostage to the average."
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This looks incredible
👀 Premiering on select @IMAX screens and streaming this November, THE WATCH: America’s Nuclear Mission offers extraordinary access to the most important mission in world history. No CGI. No AI. Ever. With @usairforce + @AFGlobalStrike + @USNavy
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This is like saying Denis Rodman should’ve been kicked off the bulls because he was too physical. It’s a game, gamers game and if she can get into players heads so easy, she’s an elite gamer
From @TheAthletic: If the Indiana Fever ever wants to go back to being a basketball team, Sophie Cunningham has to go, our columnist writes. "Cunningham is too combustible, her takes too turbulent to be paired with Caitlin Clark."  nyti.ms/4eiBPJ0
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To fix social security the government should allow someone to opt which would cut their tax rate from 6.2% to 3.1% for say 10/15 years and then reduce by another percent every 10/15 years. That allows funding to still happen and those who opt out to have excess money they can contribute to their retirement accounts It’s far from ideal for those who opt out, but the structure would at least incentivize enough people to opt out to reduce obligations while keeping social security funded
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I’ve found it interesting how breathlessly the Democratic Party now lies and does everything in its power to tear down Trump. Sad but at least they’re consistent
Trump's new message on his Iran war: "Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego." Disgusting and dangerous. End the war and hold him accountable.
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The city of Seattle is so brave and inclusive. Prioritizing the residents of illegally parked RV’s over highschool kids is how we make the world a better, safe place
The Homeless RVs have returned to Woodland Park, except now they are parked on a high school cross country track. To make matters worse, some of the RV dwellers have become "aggressive" towards the high school coach when asked to move. The city is "aware", but does not appear to be doing anything about it. This is not what compassion looks like, and now we have high school students drawn into the mess as well. Segment by @JoelMorenoKOMO at KOMO4
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Really good write up on why the doomerism narrative isn’t based on real facts and all evidence points towards AI being incredibly positive for humanity
Does anyone disagree that pretty much every piece of empirical evidence we have about actually existing AI points toward a labor-augmenting technology with a more-or-less ordinary risk profile (no worse than cars, guns, nuclear power, social media, etc.)? On the labor front, the evidence of minimal / inconsequential employment effects so far is undeniably strong (see: aleximas.substack.com/p/has-…). On the risk front, the recent spate of "rogue agent" incidents was akin to a set of natural experiment in which much of what could go wrong did, and the costs were comparable to or less than your typical high-profile cybersecurity breach (several of which happen around the world every month). Not only that, but the base rate of AI-related hacking incidents is extremely low, and with rare exception, model behavior during real-world use cases is exceedingly well-aligned. Plus, as Anthropic recently argued (anthropic.com/research/glm-5…), the open-source GLM 5.3 is around as capable as Claude Mythos at cyber-exploitation while also having much lower safeguards, meaning that every additional day absent some dire cybersecurity incident is further evidence against catastrophic AI cyber-risk. Taken together, these facts imply two constraints on arguments in favor of catastrophic AI risk: 1) those arguments must either pass through future, rather than current capabilities, or future, rather than current varieties of AI adoption or implementation (or they must claim we have been unrealistically lucky); 2) those arguments must also must pass through some specific capability or adoption threshold, rather than rapid improvement or adoption as such, since dramatic capability improvement and rapid adoption have already occurred alongside demonstrably low risk of catastrophic harm. It is therefore natural that those concerned about catastrophic risk commonly appeal to recursive self-improvement, or RSI in order to make the case that things will get much scarier very soon. But as @ramez has convincingly argued (noahpinion.blog/p/wheres-the…), existing data on the reality of RSI within frontier labs neither suggests an inbound trend-break, nor the accelerating returns that might produce one. On the contrary, as is unsurprising to those familiar with the generally log-linear relationship between compute and model performance, all available signs points toward diminishing returns. And this is before considering external factors that could slow capability progress further, including low-hanging fruit effects related to running up against more complex or tacit-knowledge-based tasks for which performance data and verifiable reward signals are scarcer, plausibly incoming financing constraints related to the industry's massive capex commitments (see: econjared.substack.com/p/a-b…), growing political backlash, both to data centers in particular, but also rapid AI development writ large, and new regulatory bodies and industry reporting frameworks (see e.g. markey.senate.gov/news/press… and axios.com/2026/08/11/open-so… ), which will require labs to proceed with greater caution from here on out. I am therefore led to conclude both that catastrophic AI risk is likely to remain negligible for the foreseeable future and that the only counterarguments concern massive black-swan-style capability uplifts no existing data imply are on the horizon, and/or particularly irresponsible or dangerous forms of AI adoption that there are also few precedents for so far (and that we are actively developing norms, regulation, and security measures against). Neither is impossible, meaning we should remain vigilant and that AI safety efforts will continue to be well worth it in the coming years. But I see no way around the conclusion that something akin to the "normal technology" view is superior on the empirical and argumentative merits to whatever variety of doomerism. What am I missing?
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The more that comes out, the more it seems the mariners were pretty banged up this year with injuries to start the season that never got better. Hopefully it’s a fluke and not something to expect in future seasons
Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh both underwent successful procedures and are expected to be ready for 2027 Spring Training. Read more: atmlb.com/4hDAnSp
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Dems lost the narrative in AI and they know it. This is an admission they have no real argument for regulating AI other than they like regulating
This is absurd. We should reject AI bots doing "bad things" so that some of the richest corporations in the world can get even richer. It's time to enforce the laws already on the books, regulate AI, and protect people from serious harm.
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Public opinion around AI and Data Centers is an incredible case study of why autists are bad communicators. They say shit that makes people hate them, don’t understand why and continue doubling down without hesitation. VC’s are gonna start putting PR terms for founders in docs based on how autistic they are soon
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People with these plans are also highly sensitive to usage limit reductions and have a limited desire to pay more than they do today. It’s a recipe for churn if companies try to reduce subsidies, yet the companies are running out of subsidy runway. Their ARR shouldn’t be treated as most subscription businesses because there is very little friction to change and over time the value of a subscription is going to be diminished by META, Google, etc provide similar offerings for free. All their revenue can disappear insanely quick and companies starting to aggressively push to open source for a lot of use cases isn’t a good moat. All that, combined with subsidies is a recipe for a bad quarter being catastrophic
Monthly subs are still heavily subsidized. Take a moment and think through (yourself, don't use fucking AI) what this means. Why do subsidies exist? Are higher subsidies good or bad in a severely supply-limited market? Would ARR have grown at same rate without subsidies?
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I love that we have a pope who posts bangers
Replying to @Pontifex
Our age needs men and women who have the courage to do good even when it comes at a cost. Draw close to those who are alone, support those who are weary, and seek out those who have drifted away. Have the courage to forgive, to begin again, and to engage in dialogue.
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It would be ironic if the Russian lab plague, breaks out a bit, stays isolated to Russia, kills a ton of people and the only reason a global pandemic doesn’t happen is AI. AI stopping hundreds of millions of deaths might help change public opinion on data centers
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Bernie is usually pretty witty with what he says, he seems defeated here. It’s from a slow realization that these people here, all wealthy due to how exceptional they are at what they do, are more capable at defining rules and best practices for AI then government regulations. The only card he has left is yelling at them for being rich. There’s no way he gamed this out as a possible outcome and is completely lost. Private companies making agreements to do the right thing in a coordinated manner, without regulations, is the antithesis of the thesis behind his socialist utopia
Thank you, President Trump for bringing together the Oligarchs who run our country. While working families struggle to survive due to your disastrous policies, they are now worth over $1.7 trillion, including: Elon Musk: $920 billion Jeff Bezos: $368 billion Mark Zuckerberg: $250 billion Jensen Huang: $200 billion Obscene.
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