Inspired by a convo with my man @agnostoxxx

🦔Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its AI data center in New Mexico built for the $400 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI. The campus needs a 17-mile gas pipeline to power its Bloom Energy fuel cells. New Mexico denied the pipeline permits twice. Oracle wants the right to delay payments if the site misses its 2028 opening. $18 billion in project loans are at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. ORCL fell 5%. My Take Force majeure is for earthquakes and wars. Oracle filed one over a gas permit they got denied twice. A company with $167 billion in debt and a junk-adjacent credit rating just told its development partner it might not pay on time. I think Oracle's balance sheet is worse than the market has priced in, and this notice is the first public admission. Twenty banks lent $18 billion for this project and they can't move the debt. Santander and Jefferies are stuck with more than they planned to hold. That loan assumed Oracle's backlog converts to revenue on schedule, but half the backlog is OpenAI, a company that burns cash faster than it earns it. SemiAnalysis has first power at this site in 2029. The banks underwrote 2028. I think the AI infrastructure bet cracks here first, in the loan market, before it ever shows up in stock prices, and the banks who funded the construction are the ones left with the bill. Hedgie🤗

what the red candle

Bloomberg just dropped the most disturbing investigation I have read this year, and every AI builder should read it and take it seriously. On February 28, two Tomahawk missiles hit an elementary school in Minab, a small town in southern Iran. 156 people died. At least 123 were children. The Pentagon knew within hours that it had bombed a school. The school had its own website. It was labeled on Google Maps. You could see the soccer pitch from a satellite view. You could see the brightly painted walls. Any 12-year-old with a browser could tell what the building was. The AI system could not. Inside US Central Command, personnel were using Palantir's Maven Smart System. It is an AI targeting platform running on a $1.3 billion Pentagon contract, and embedded inside it is Anthropic's Claude. On day one of the war, more than 1,000 targets went through it in 24 hours. Work that used to take a team hours per target got compressed into minutes. The satellite imagery Maven was pulling from was seven years old. The site was still tagged in the database as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard facility. The system spat it out as a recommended day-one target. Humans signed off. The first missile flew. Then a second one landed minutes later to hit the people who came to help. Investigators later found that some Central Command staff had assumed Maven would flag stale intelligence for them. It did not. Nobody had told it to. Palantir told Bloomberg the government is responsible for the underlying data. The Pentagon's civilian harm mitigation team, the people whose actual job is to catch a target like this, had been cut back before the war started. This is not AI going rogue. This is the opposite. This is AI doing exactly what it was built to do at exactly the speed it was built to do it. And a school full of little girls got vaporized because the humans in the loop trusted the machine more than they trusted their own eyes. I keep thinking about the version of this story that comes next. What happens when the system is faster. When the target list is not 1,000 in a day but 10,000. When "review" becomes a button the operator has three seconds to hit before the next target loads. When there is no human left slow enough to notice that a soccer pitch is not a helipad. We are not talking about a spam filter mislabeling an email. We are talking about a system that turned a seven-year-old database entry into two cruise missiles landing on children in the middle of a morning class. A UN-backed panel has now called it a potential war crime. In terms of children killed, it is the deadliest American targeting error of the entire 21st century. And according to Bloomberg, some of Defense Secretary Hegseth's own advisors are worried that too much public scrutiny of Maven might slow down its adoption inside the Pentagon. Read that last line again. If you build this stuff, you own what it does. You do not get to hide behind "the government owns the data." The whole pitch of your product is that speed and integration save lives. When it takes them instead, that is also on you. I am not against AI in defense. I am against AI in a hurry. Speed is the entire mechanism that made Minab possible. Every guardrail we already know how to build takes time, and time is exactly what the system was designed to eliminate. So here is the question I have not been able to stop asking, and I genuinely want to know what you think. If a piece of software helped kill 123 children in a single morning while behaving exactly as designed, what does "responsible AI" even mean anymore?

Biggest casualties of a US diesel export ban are, in that order : 1/ Chile + Peru + Brazil + Ecuador + Guatemala + Caribbeans 2/ US Atlantic coast motorists 3/ US Gulf Coast refiners 4/ Mexicans + part of Canadians Biggest beneficiaries : 1/ Refiners ex-US 2/ Deep southern US states truckers Some will say where's Europe in your list ? Well there are 370 mbbls of diesel + 70 mbbls of jet fuel in Europe, fellas ... and this is a cookie cutter case for the mother of all SPR releases. >90 days of consumption and >2y of imports from the US.