Live abroad (for now). Yes I’m American. Reformed tech consultant. Ex-corporate drone. Markets. Gold. Housing. AI and crypto nonsense. Travel more, work less.
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In the Star Trek timeline, most of the large cities had been destroyed via nuclear war from around 2025 - 2080. Billions dead. Governments gone.
Warp drive was invented around 2060, alien contact shortly after…which ushered in the positive future we see in the 23rd century.
It’s unfortunate that Star Trek has been bad and irrelevant for decades now.
Humanity should be actively visualizing a timeline where we survive and thrive into the 23rd century.
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Tobias Maximus retweeted
The entire human race is going to collapse based on 6's waiting for Thor to show up in a Bugatti
Jake Rattlesnake
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Tobias Maximus retweeted
You can’t discuss the ocean with a frog. They only understand the pond. Remember that.
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Then the stock market crashed and Fed funds rate went below 2%. Bond holders outperformed the stock market by orders of magnitude.
Your friendly reminder that the Fed hiked 3 times in 1999 and NDX did +51% *after* the first hike
Oh and the 10-year went from 4.7% to 6.5% that same calendar year
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Tobias Maximus retweeted
By having done this, I kid you not that for every negotiation we have with the North, one of their conditions will be that we repatriate them.
Basically, he gave them the death sentence by revealing this.
Recently, we sent two North Korean prisoners of war to the Republic of Korea… These guys are not easy to capture alive. One of them, when he realized he was going to be taken prisoner, tried to kill himself. And he was shocked that fate did not let him die.
This is how they raise people in the North. They take away their freedom. They take away their right to choose. And they drill into them that they must die, no matter what.
Do you really want to give such a force more time to learn how to wage war?
From an address to UNGA. (2/7)
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Tobias Maximus retweeted
Nano Banc of Irvine, California was closed today by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver
#MacroEdge
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The Fed should set overnight rates at 4% permanently and just go away, other than an occasional bailout when needed. The productivity savings alone from not talking about the Fed ever again would bring down debt to GDP.
The Fed dual mandate is shifting. Used to be “low inflation and full employment”. The latter is now taken as a given in Fed comments. Dual mandate will shift to “low inflation and interest expense management”, though the two of them will always be in tension.
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International bid also left.
Anecdotally, in the 2010s you had to fight an army of Chinese buyers in SoCal all looking to move money out of China and into US real estate. Vacant homes. Land banks. Fake demand.
Talking to locals now, that bid has now vanished.
U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years.
The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property.
10-year yields are now 5.1%.
While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%.
For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds.
And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years.
This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at reventure.app/map.
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At that point, it’s not just private debt, it’s a liability of the U.S. government and ultimately taxpayer.
What’s the old saying…if I owe the bank $100 I have a problem, but if I owe the bank $100 billion the bank has a problem?
Anthropic and OpenAi now have $2.5 trillion of off balance sheet debt.
7% of the National Debt
Roughly as much as $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT and $ORCL combined
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The system wants you to buy stocks, bonds and real estate. Or start a business. It wants you to do these things so it can collect tax receipts.
Generally, if you do these things, the system will reward you and you’ll live a comfortable life.
If you don’t, you won’t be rewarded and you’ll complain about it on Twitter.
It isn’t all that complicated.
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