Open capital for markets that price the future
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Meta building a prediction app is the headline.
The real shift is prediction markets becoming a capital market.
Then the hard part stops being trading UX. It becomes collateral, credit, settlement, and liquidation around event-settled assets.
That's what Cusp is building on @solana.
JUST IN: Mark Zuckerberg orders $META to create prediction markets app.
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Borrowing against prediction market positions is going to be a huge unlock 💯
event-driven positions need clear risk, credit, liquidation, and settlement Infra before they can become real collateral.
CUSP is building that layer.
Stay liquid 🌊
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Exactly
The unlock is not just making PM positions borrowable.
It is making them financeable at scale.
Risk metadata, dynamic LTVs, vault underwriting, liquidation paths, and settlement-aware collateral.
As PM prop desks scale, this becomes core market infrastructure.
Would love to compare notes.
there is a billion dollar opportunity in creating a token standard for prediction market positions that plugs into DeFi liquidity pools and enables lending/borrowing against PM shares
the core problem: PM positions go to zero at resolution so no lender touches them. a standard that wraps positions with risk metadata (probability, time to resolution, volatility) lets lending protocols price binary risk dynamically instead of avoiding it
connect this to the wave of prop firms emerging to fund PM traders
a lot of them will need infrastructure to extend capital against trader portfolios and manage binary resolution risk at scale
that infrastructure doesn't exist yet and the demand side is already forming. the supply side is wide open.
putting this out there for whoever wants to build it
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Prediction Market volume (May 2026):
🥇- 1. @Kalshi - $17.9B (58%)
🥈- 2. @Polymarket - $8.8B (28%)
🥉- 3. @trylimitless - $1.7B (6%)
4. @predictdotfun - $1.1B (4%)
5. @opinionlabsxyz - $0.7B (2%)
6. Other - $0.9B (3%)
Key observation:
- Kalshi captured 58% of May volume, back-to-back months of majority share, and 9 straight months leading the category. The gap continues to widen.
Other insights:
- Sports + Exotics (Kalshi's combo/parlay product) combined for $15.3B, or 85% of Kalshi's monthly total. Crypto held as the #2 Kalshi category at $2.0B (11%).
- Polymarket volume fell 13% MoM to $8.8B, its 2nd straight monthly decline. Polymarket US grew from $1.2B to $1.7B, so the drop is entirely on the DeFi International side. Likely due to a mix of:
- fewer sports games as NHL/NBA seasons wind down
- growing user frustration with market resolutions
- Polymarket will bounce back, but stabilizing DeFi International has to be the priority. The US platform is doing its job.
- Limitless grew 3% MoM to $1.7B, edging out PredictDotFun ($1.1B, -29% MoM) for the #3 platform spot.
- @HyperliquidX (not pictured) hit $92M in its first month. Strong debut, and I expect it to take big leap in market share over the coming months.
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Believe in @superteam and @SuperteamIN
superteam is here to be your first believer
locally rooted teams are best placed to identify promising (but unproven) founders and builders
and will support you with resources, raising first capital, and community (membership)
just show up with your best pow!
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