quant shop within internet capital markets ivy league academia meets poker pro chutzpah public research on machine learning, prediction markets, and crypto

Cambridge, Massachusetts
if we dropped a research report on our findings from algo trading the world cup, would you read it?
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our CTO recently started his first job as MIT ML researcher. will be dropping our first public report, on his initial findings in the field from his first month. stay tuned
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40,000+ have joined the waitlist Connect your wallet to secure your spot skew.trade
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Hedge funds don't die from bad returns. The CEO of a $6B quant fund that's compounded 20% a year for 20 years explains what actually kills them: "Investment funds don't really die because of poor returns. If they're down, they're down. Most funds, given the appropriate amount of time, should be able to recover." "The reason funds really die is a couple of things happen. Markets go against them, returns drop, and investors run for the doors." "There are many things a manager has control over. You can control your strategy. You can control the terms on which you raise funds. The one thing you can't control is redemptions." "Once you've taken in money and set your redemption terms, when that notice comes in, it's an obligation. There's no negotiation." "No matter what the market circumstances are, no matter how inappropriate it is for your strategy to sell those assets, you have to do it to raise money." "So by locking people up — making sure every single one of them invests for the long term — we're eradicating the risk of a run on the fund." Every manager stress-tests the portfolio. Very few stress-tests the shareholder register. The run, not the drawdown, is the extinction event.
Inside the $6B quant fund that turned down a shot at $20B to keep control — early investors who stayed in day one are up almost 40x. Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin — CEO @ Quantedge, Asia's top quant hedge fund, CEO since 2018 "We're trying to beat the markets. 20% annualized returns — if you can do it for 10 years, well done. If you can do it for 20, that's what we've done. But we're going to do it for 50." We cover: - Why Quantedge turned down a straight shot at $20B AUM — and the redemption structure they built instead - The real edge left in investing isn't information, it's running 300+ markets to drive idiosyncratic risk near zero - Their hard rule: if you can't explain a strategy in plain English, it doesn't belong in the model - Why they refuse to launch a "lower-vol" product for allocators, even though it's the easiest AUM they'd ever raise - The behavioral-bias thesis behind two decades of 20% annualized returns - "Class Q" — the internal share class that's turned early investors' money into almost 40x, with one brutal catch: it's permanent capital - Why Quantedge hires almost exclusively straight out of school and turns away experienced PMs - His path from law partner to hedge fund CEO — and the one skill that made the jump possible - The real reason funds die (hint: it's rarely the returns) Thanks to Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:08 Founding Quantedge: two guys, $3M, and a Bloomberg machine 03:07 What makes an investment strategy robust across regimes 06:31 The real edge: it's not information, it's diversification across 300 markets 10:59 Scaling from $3M to $6B without chasing allocator money 15:00 Why they turned down the "dial down the risk" pitch from allocators 18:00 Running 25% vol with conviction — and why it's not a black box 20:33 How the research process evolved over 20 years 24:00 Trading on narratives vs. noise — why they stay distanced from the news 27:47 Is generative AI signal or noise for a quant shop? 31:09 Why Quantedge hires only fresh grads — never mid-career PMs 35:47 The two-pronged mission: compound for 50 years, then do good 38:28 From law partner to hedge fund CEO 49:32 Capital consolidation — why the big funds keep winning 55:04 The #1 mistake that kills emerging managers 59:03 Why fixed-term lockups saved the fund — even though it cost them a shot at $20B AUM 1:05:00 Class Q: the almost-40x share class only insiders get 1:07:26 Why 200 CVs come in for every open seat 1:14:44 Balancing meritocracy with actually caring about people 1:19:17 Final advice: patience, conviction, and playing the long game
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The Clarity Act protects writing and publishing code, giving developers the legal certainty to build the next generation of DeFi in the United States. Aave Labs has been building open financial infrastructure for nearly a decade, and we support regulation that better informs and protects builders. We believe this bill would bring more institutions, more capital, and more users onchain.
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A somewhat under the radar RWA perps venue is @QFEX, which I've been trading on a lot more recently. I've built a dashboard to track exchange-wide metrics such as volume, OI and funding rates across their listed pairs. Since I first tested it out in February this year, they’ve grown a lot and liquidity on individual equities is now very good. You currently need an invite code to access QFEX so will drop some below. Probably not a bad idea to be doing some of your equities volume there. Check out my dashboard: qfex-dashboard.vercel.app/
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$100 on England to beat France in the World Cup. Payouts on prediction markets vs sportsbooks: 1. @SX_Bet - $415 2. @Novig - $408 3. @HyperliquidX - $406 4. @predofficial - $400 5. @bet_105 - $397 6. @ProphetX - $394 7. @FanDuel - $390 8. @Polymarket - $385 9. @trylimitless - $383 10. @Bet365 - $380 11. @Kalshi - $379 12. @Duelbits - $375 13. @Stake - $375 14. @DraftKings - $375 15. @Underdog - $370 Prediction markets currently offer the best England moneyline odds, led by SX Bet. Among sportsbooks, Bet105 lead the list.
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we still believe in the on-chain economy
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We're excited to announce a partnership with SBI Group, one of Japan's leading financial institutions. The collaboration covers tokenizing Japanese assets with distribution across the SBI ecosystem, and settlement using the JPYSC stablecoin. Ondo CEO Ian De Bode on the partnership: “Japan is one of the most sophisticated capital markets in the world, and SBI sits at the center of it. This collaboration creates a path to bring Japanese assets onchain.” Yoshitaka Kitao, Representative Director, Chairman, President & CEO, SBI Holdings: “Ondo Finance has established itself as a global leader in the tokenization of real-world assets and is at the forefront of the tokenized equities market. We believe Ondo will be a key strategic partner as SBI Group forms a global corridor for digital assets.” Japan's capital markets, now connected to global onchain finance, powered by Ondo.
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Introducing Galaxy Curator: institutional vault curation, built on @Morpho and natively distributed through @FireblocksHQ Earn. Institutional stablecoin balances sit idle between deployment cycles and settlement windows — not because there's no demand for yield, but because the infrastructure to safely deploy at scale hasn't existed. That changes today.
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Skew has raised 500k HYPE ($33M) from @HyperionDeFi to bring a new class of markets to Hyperliquid Join the waitlist: skew.trade
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Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips. Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices. Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery. Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities. The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market. Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate. The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.
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$50,000 @predictdotfun x Kairos Trading Competition Five prize pools. PnL. ROI. Volume. Consistency. Content. Up to 150 unique winners. Details below ↓
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S&P Global is paying attention to DeFi vaults. Key takeaways from its latest primer: • Vaults are becoming the on-chain equivalent of managed funds. • They improve operational efficiency but introduce new risk considerations. • While crypto-native today, they're poised to become *core infrastructure* for tokenized real-world assets and institutional capital.
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final stages of the world cup happening. we've been exploring new territory with trading on soccer markets. so far so good. shout out to @KairosTradeX for making the process seamless + having great support. highly rec
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