Sometimes the market can take time to digest and make good decisions, and can remain 'wrong' for a while.
example: the
$btc etf announcement. we rallied 2k on it and immediately retraced it.
i'd say most people thought the etf would be a nothingburger. many compared it to cboe futures.
the facts that prob mattered the most were:
-blackrock had applied for 500 etfs and only got 1 denied (numbers could be slightly wrong but it was above 99.5% success)
-the etf would most likely bring tons of inflows. and even if it didnt, it would be a positive for btc price
btc price took forever to wake up. it stood below 28k for 2 FUCKING MONTHS.
you could've thought: "oh, this is a nothingburger: the market is shrugging it off like nothing, so it's prob no big deal"
but true answer was: market was wrong about it and/or still digesting it
another less clean but still good example:
btc at the 16k bottom. you could be watching the chart do 300$ moves for 1 whole month while losing your mental sanity, or assume the bottom for sure was very close after such mayhem for 9 months only to finish with ftx going down in an epic finale; buy spot and log off (i did that. i spent quite some time trying to find a perfect padel racket in late november-early december 2022, i was poor back then and perfectionist so i wanted to make sure i chose the right one).
reality: sellers were almost done. 9 months non stop downtrend, 6 month grind at the lows (pretty much just like now), price down 75%, worst news EVER hit us and btc price barely dipped 20%. bottom was in or very close.
what happened: late scared people who had bought higher were extremely emotional about their losses and losing their minds over small prices movements for 1 fucking month. if u've bagholded something u know that feeling. it takes time to rinse them off, but at some point the balance between late stage sellers and smart players switches. it took us a month.
going back to the present: btc is over 50% down from the top. at the strongest support in the chart (about to close monthly chart at support). we've been dumping for 8 months, and in this sort of range for 5 months already (we went to 60k already in february), so people already have had quite some time to capitulate. saylor's ponzi is more or less under control (for a while at least). etfs have been non stop dumping on us lately and btc price has absorbed it quite well. downside seems somewhat muted.
what can happen: we could still spend some time around here or a little lower, market taking its time to digest saylor's actions (which were pretty positive given we have a madman on board), we could make a lower low in the meantime, revisit over and over around here while late dumpooors who bought much higher finally finish capitulating... no one knows if we are going to spend a couple months here, or even more, while the balance between sellers and buyers continues to shift. the fact that we havent gone up immediately on decent saylor news doesn't mean we are wrong. might just mean the market is taking is time to digest it.
the fact remains 16k was a good price no matter what late capitulatoors thought, and 58k is a good price no matter what etfs and other retards do! sure, 50-45k is a much better price, but we might just not get it.
(i personally feel there is still quite a lot of fear around, so there's a very good chance we make a marginal low towards 55k)
in other words:
set your size, set your levels, and
DON'T BE GAE