U.S. AND IRAN EXPLORE PHASED HORMUZ DEAL U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement to end the conflict, Reuters reports. The potential first step would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade, potentially alongside access to frozen Iranian assets. The main obstacle remains sequencing: neither side wants to surrender its leverage first, leaving negotiations fragile.

If this is a bubble, it's the first one in market history trading at a discount to its own growth rate.  Semis are pulling 109% YoY earnings growth while trading at a modest 17.8x NTM P/E, and Hyperscalers are putting up 58% earnings expansion at a reasonable 22.5x multiple. Meanwhile, market returns are compressing across the board as the initial multiple expansion rally transitions into a pure fundamentals game. The price returns are moderating because the market is derisking valuations, even while core infrastructure earnings explode…which when the sectors comprising over 52% of the S&P 500 are generating triple digit earnings growth at sub 20s forward multiples, that isn't a “bubble” as they trying to portray it…it's an earnings engine catching up to capital investment…

March 2020 COVID bottom where we had a once-in-a-century event and the whole economy was shut down: 52.7% bears. September 2026 whatever the hell this is: 53.3% bears.