NFL POTD #1 🏈 (Sept. 27th) Collab w/@PropKitchen 👨‍🍳 1. Kenneth Walker O17.5 Rush Atts (-140 Fanatics) Reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker has given the Chiefs a legitimate star in the backfield. He has become the driving force behind a Kansas City ground game that ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards through two weeks, while Walker himself leads the league with 290 rushing yards. Walker opened the season with 23 carries for 173 yards against Denver before handling 24 carries for 117 yards against Indianapolis. He has recorded 47 rushing attempts through two games, averaging 23.5 per game while clearing this line comfortably in both. His snap share jumped from 68% in Week 1 to 83% in Week 2, showing Kansas City is treating him like a true workhorse. When Walker has played at least 65% of the offensive snaps, he has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 19.7 carries per game. Unlike his time in Seattle, where Zach Charbonnet consistently took a large share of the valuable red zone work, Walker has become Kansas City’s first option near the goal line. Through two games with the Chiefs, Walker has handled 7 red zone rushing attempts, the most on the team and a 53.8% share. Kansas City reached the Colts’ 1 yard line in Week 2 and gave Walker three consecutive rushing attempts trying to punch it in. All three were stopped, but Andy Reid made it clear afterward that the Chiefs still want the run game to work in those situations, saying, “We hoped to get it in with one of those runs… We’ve got to fix that.” The fact they trusted Walker three straight times from the 1 tells us plenty about how they view his role. Miami has already allowed opposing offenses to generate this type of volume. Ashton Jeanty handled 23 rushing attempts against the Dolphins in Week 1, while Miami ranks 28th against RB rush attempts and 32nd in both early down rush rate and overall team rush rate. Kansas City enters as roughly an 11 point favorite, giving Walker a strong path to another run heavy second half if the Chiefs control the game. His efficiency has been elite at 6.2 yards per carry, but we don’t need another 100 yard performance here. We simply need Kansas City to continue feeding the player who has become the centerpiece of its rushing attack. Kansas City has clearly committed to Walker as the engine of its rushing attack, and this matchup gives them every reason to keep leaning on him. With the Chiefs expected to control the game, we like Walker to record 18+ rushing attempts for the third straight week.

Note: Both plays were given out in the Discord on Monday⤵️

TNF POTD 🏈 (Sept. 24th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 Posted in Sam’s Club Monday! 1. Drake London O4.5 Recs(-130) #DirtyBirds 2. Drake London O49.5 Rec Yards(-135) #DirtyBirds  London’s numbers with Penix starting are hard to ignore. Across his last 10 with Penix, he’s averaging 7 receptions and 99.7 receiving yards, clearing both of these lines in 8 of 10. The biggest thing here is volume. London is averaging 11.2 targets per game with Penix and that kind of usage gives him a strong path to both catches and yards. Green Bay isn’t a matchup we’re scared of either. They rank 16th in receiving yards allowed to WRs and 12th overall defensively, so it’s not a free spot, but it’s not one that should completely erase London’s role. Atlanta also comes in as 4.5-point dogs, which sets up a game script where they may need to throw. If Penix is playing from behind or forced to be aggressive, London should be the first read and the main volume piece in this passing game. With his target share, past production with Penix, and likely passing script, London has a clean path to get there. Use Code “Demon” for 20% off and never miss out on plays like this!🔥

MNF FREE Square x PrizePicks🏈 4.5x💰 1. Cam Skattebo O0.5 Rush Yards⚡️ 2. Jaxson Dart O199.5 PR💎 3. Kyren Williams O0.5 TDs💎 4. Malik Nabers O51.5 Rec Yards💎

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PrizePicks FREE Square🏈 3.75x💰 1. Patrick Mahomes O0.5 Pass Yards⚡️ 2. CeeDee Lamb O4.5 Recs💎 3. Stefan Diggs O3.5 Recs💎 4. Christian McCaffrey O3.5 Recs💎

NFL POTD #2🏈 (Sept. 20th) Collab w/@PropKitchen, @balls_out_bets 📲 1. David Montgomery O15.5 Rush Atts(-110) #HtownMade ✍️@PropKitchen -The Texans finished 28th in yards per carry at 3.9 last season and brought David Montgomery in to give the offense a proven, physical runner between the tackles. He immediately showed why, finishing his Texans debut with 20 carries for 60 yards and 2 rushing TDs while adding a third TD through the air. DeMeco Ryans praised his physicality and ability to create positive yards even when runs were blocked for little or nothing. -Montgomery handled 20 carries on 37 offensive snaps while Woody Marks had only 9 carries on 36 snaps. Despite an almost identical snap split, Montgomery accounted for 20 of Houston’s 29 RB carries, a 69% share. Houston also gave Montgomery complete control of the scoring-area rushing work: 📈 Inside the 20: 5 carries | Marks 0 📈 Inside the 10: 4 carries | Marks 0 📈 Inside the 5: 3 carries | Marks 0 -Montgomery also had 6 carries with 2 or fewer yards needed for a first down, including a 4th-down conversion and 3 separate 3rd-and-1 conversions. When Houston needed one tough yard, Montgomery was consistently the back they trusted. -Montgomery had 13 carries before halftime, while 16 of his 20 attempts came with Houston trailing. His 16th carry came with 3:33 remaining in the 3rd quarter, so his volume wasn’t created by Houston sitting on a lead. The Texans continued feeding him while chasing Buffalo. -Houston still attempted 38 passes with 32 team rushing attempts, showing Montgomery can reach this number without C.J. Stroud having a low-volume passing game. -Buffalo loaded the box against Montgomery, with 8+ defenders on 35% of his carries and seven defenders on another 50%. He still forced 5 missed tackles and produced 37 of his 60 rushing yards after contact, while Houston continued feeding him despite averaging only 3.0 yards per carry. -Nico Collins has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Houston was already using heavier personnel with multiple tight ends and six offensive linemen, and losing its WR1 gives the Texans another reason to stay balanced and create manageable down-and-distance situations through Montgomery. -Cincinnati allowed the 6th-most RB rushing attempts in 2025 before rebuilding its defensive front with Dexter Lawrence. The Bengals may be improved against the run, but this is an attempts prop. Montgomery doesn’t need to be highly efficient if Houston continues treating him as its primary ballcarrier. -Montgomery already handled 18 carries for 65 yards and a TD against Cincinnati last season as a member of the Lions. Even some regression from his Week 1 workload still gets him over this line at his 69% share of Houston’s RB carries: 📈 24 RB carries = 16.6 Montgomery attempts 📈 26 RB carries = 17.9 attempts -Houston brought Montgomery in to add physicality and reliability to its rushing attack, and Week 1 showed exactly how they intend to use him. He controlled the majority of the carries, red-zone work and short-yardage opportunities while continuing to get the ball when Houston trailed. With Collins out, we like Montgomery to record 16+ rushing attempts against Cincinnati.

NFL POTD #1🏈 (Sept. 20th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Derrick Henry O16.5 Longest Rush(-130) #RavensFlock In Week 1 he looked exactly like the same Derrick Henry we’re used to seeing, 24 carries, 144 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs, and a 32-yard touchdown run. He also added 95 yards after contact, which tells you he wasn’t just getting clean lanes, he was still creating extra yards once defenders got to him. He’s averaging 29.2 yards on his longest rush over his last 10, has cleared this in 8 of those 10, and already popped a 32-yarder in his first game of the season. The matchup sets up well too. New Orleans has been vulnerable off tackle and is allowing 21.7 yards on longest rush allowed. Henry doesn’t need 25 touches to cash this, one crease, one missed tackle, or one bad angle and he’s gone.

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PrizePicks x TNF🏈 5x💰 1. DJ Moore O34.5 Rec Yards🌮 2. Dalton Kincaid O19.5 Long Rec💎 3. Jahmyr Gibbs O0.5 TDs💎 4. Jared Goff O33.5 PA💎

💰💰 .5 away from sweeping tacos today but I’ll take the win.

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #2👨‍🍳 3.5x💰 1. Logan Gilbert O3.5 Ks🌮 2. Pete Alonso O5.5 HFS💎 3. Jacob deGrom O4.5 Ks💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #1👨‍🍳 Collab w/@PvbBets 📲 3x💰 1. Jacob Misiorowski O5.5 Ks🌮 2. Yoshi Yamamoto O5.5 Ks💎 3. Cristopher Sanchez O5.5 Ks💎

MLB POTD⚾️ (Sept. 15th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Logan Gilbert O17.5 Outs (-150) #TridentsUp The L5 stretch has been a little shaky, but the bigger sample still points to him being capable of working deep. He’s averaging 18.3 outs over his last 20 and has cleared this number in 65% of those starts, so we’re not asking for anything outside of his normal workload. The Angels matchup gives him a clear path to work deep. This projected order owns just a .230 AVG with a 25.6% K rate vs RHP, which should help Gilbert create quick innings and avoid constant traffic. They’re not a lineup that consistently forces long at-bats or stacks damage. Los Angeles also ranks near the bottom in OBP vs right-handers, so there’s a real path for him to keep traffic down. Gilbert is coming off a stronger outing where he went 7 innings and has the type of leash where six innings is very realistic if he avoids early damage.

MNF FREE Square x PrizePicks🏈 3.5x💰 1. Kenneth Walker O0.5 RR⚡️ 2. Bo Nix O3.5 Rush Atts💎 3. Patrick Mahomes O29.5 PA💎

Chalkboard POTD👨‍🏫 50% Boost🚀 1. Parker Messick O4.5 Ks💎 2. Sonny Gray O16.5 Outs💎 3. Chris Sale O6.5 Ks💎

PrizePicks x Flex Friday💪 11x💰 1. Cade Cavalli O5.5 Ks💎 2. Blake Snell O5.5 Ks💎 3. Teoscar Hernandez O5 HFS💎 4. Roman Anthony O5.5 HFS💎 5. Drake Baldwin O1.5 HRR💎 6. William Contreras O5 HFS💎

Chalkboard TNF Discount⚡️ 3.18x💰 1. Puka Nacua O55.5 Rec Yards✂️ 2. Christian McCaffrey O29.5 Rec Yards💎 3. Matthew Stafford O1.5 Pass TD💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday👨‍🍳 5.25x💰 1. Puka Nacua O62.5 Rec Yards🌮 2. Drake Baldwin O1.5 HRR💎 3. Yandy Diaz O0.5 Hits💎 4. Christian McCaffrey O3.5 Recs💎

💰💰 No idea how this cashed with the performance Maye had.

Chalkboard POTD🏈 50% Boost🚀 1. AJ Barner O19.5 Rec Yards💎 2. AJ Brown O4.5 Recs💎 3. Rhomandre Stevenson O69.5 R+R Yards💎

PrizePicks FREE Square🏈 NFL SZN is Back! 3x💰 1. Sam Darnold O.5 Pass Yards🆓 2. Drake Maye O224.5 PR💎 3. Yoshi Yamamoto O6.5Ks💎

MLB POTD⚾️ (Sept. 7th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Chase Burns O2.5 HA (-139) #ATOBTTR The number is just too low for a pitcher who has been giving up consistent contact lately. Since the All-Star break, Burns is allowing 5.1 hits per start over 8 starts, up from 4.3 before the break and he’s cleared this line in 7 of those 8. The recent form points the same way. Over his last 3 starts, Burns is sitting at 13.8 HA/9, which gives us a strong path to 3+ hits even if he doesn’t go super deep. Los Angeles also brings a solid contact profile into this spot with a .262 batting average vs RHP, so they do not need a huge inning to get this there.

PrizePicks FREE Square🏈 4x💰 1. Josh Hoover O0.5 Pass Yards🆓 2. Pete Alonso O0.5 HRR💎 3. Wilyer Abreu O5.5 HFS💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #2👨‍🍳 3.75x💰 1. Coco Gauff O14.5 TG🌮 2. Freddy Peralta O3.5 HA💎 3. William Contreras O6 HFS💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #1👨‍🍳 4x💰 1. Gerrit Cole O4.5 K🌮 2. Seiya Suzuki O6.5 HFS💎 3. Jesus Luzardo O4.5 Ks💎

MLB POTD⚾️ (Sept. 1st) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Freddy Peralta O3.5 HA (-155) #RaysUp Since the All-Star break, he’s allowing 5.6 hits per start, clearing this number in 5 of 7 starts during that stretch. On the season, he’s at 144 hits allowed across 27 starts, which comes out to 5.3 hits per game, so this line is sitting pretty low compared to his normal volume. The recent form backs it up too. Peralta is allowing 10.1 HA/9 over his last 7 starts and this matchup doesn’t look like one where he should completely avoid traffic. New York has a .253 batting average vs RHP, while Peralta is allowing a .259 batting average, so there’s a clear path for them to put enough balls in play to get to 4 hits. Peralta still has swing-and-miss in the arsenal, but this isn’t a strikeout line where we need dominance. We just need baserunners and with his recent hit volume trending up after the break, we’ll take the over on a short 3.5 HA number.

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PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #2👨‍🍳 3.5x💰 1. Paul Skenes O3.5 Ks🌮 2. Yordan Alvarez O1.5 HRR💎 3. Bryce Harper O2.5 HFS💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #1👨‍🍳 4.25x💰 1. Paige Bueckers O25.5 PRA🌮 2. Alec Burleson O1.5 HRR💎 3. Aaron Nola O4.5 HA💎

MLB POTD #1⚾️ (Aug. 24th) Going for 6 straight w/@SC_FFB 🔥 1. Patrick Messick O17.5 Outs/5+ Ks(-150) #GuardsBall The outs side is supported by his recent workload, as he’s averaging 19.3 outs per start over his last 3, so we’re not asking him to do anything outside of his current role. He just needs to get through 6 innings, and the recent usage says that’s clearly in range. The strikeout piece lines up well too. Messick is coming in with 11.2 K/9 over his last 3 starts, and the Angels bring real swing-and-miss upside against lefties. Their projected order sits at a 26.6% K rate vs LHP, while Messick’s 25.5% whiff rate gives him enough putaway ability to reach 5 strikeouts without needing a ceiling game. The Angels do have some OBP risk against lefties, but this is more of a balanced matchup than a full fade spot. They rank around the middle of the league in OBP vs LHP, while also ranking 3rd in K% vs LHP, which is exactly what we want for a pitcher combo like this. If Messick keeps the walks down and avoids extended innings, the path is pretty clear: work into the 6th and let the matchup’s strikeout profile carry him to 5+ Ks. We’ll ride the recent workload plus the K upside here.

MLB POTD #1⚾️ (Aug. 22nd) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. David Peterson O14.5 Outs💎 #CUBS Even in games where he hasn’t been dominant, he’s consistently been able to get through that fifth inning. The matchup with Seattle is also not one we’re scared of. The Mariners rank 28th in OBP vs left-handed pitching with a .299 OBP, so this is not a lineup that should constantly extend innings with traffic. They do have some strikeout upside in the order as well, sitting around a 22.5% K rate vs LHP, which can help Peterson grab quicker outs and avoid long innings. As long as Peterson avoids one blow-up inning and keeps the walks under control, this is a very attainable number. We’ll ride the workload trend and matchup profile here on Peterson O14.5 outs.

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PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #3👨‍🍳 3.5x💰 1. A’ja Wilson O16.5 Points🌮 2. Matt Olson O0.5 HRR💎 3 Yordan Alvarez O0.5 Walks💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #2👨‍🍳 3.5x💰 1. Zack Wheeler O4.5 Ks🌮 2. Bobby Witt Jr. O1.5 HRR💎 3. Seiya Suzuki O3.5 HFS💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #1👨‍🍳 3.75x💰 1. Kelsey Mitchell O18.5 Points🌮 2. Bryce Harper O6 HFS💎 3. Drake Baldwin O0.5 HRR💎

MLB POTD #1⚾️ (Aug. 18th) Going for 4x in a row w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Keider Montero U5.5 HA (-150) #DNMW The matchup might look scary at first because Pittsburgh has been a solid contact team vs righties. He’s averaging just 3.8 hits allowed per start and has stayed under this number in 81% of starts this season, including 4 of his last 5 and 9 of his last 10. The biggest thing for us is that this number requires Pittsburgh to get to six hits and Montero simply hasn’t been giving up that kind of volume often. Even when he’s not perfect, he’s usually limiting damage enough to stay below this line. His recent form backs that up too, allowing just 7.0 HA/9 over his last 7 starts. Pittsburgh’s H2H sample against Montero has been weak, hitting just .148 across 27 plate appearances.

MLB POTD #1⚾️ (Aug. 17th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Blake Snell U2.5 ER (-150) #Dodgers We like Snell to keep the damage limited in this spot. Colorado has not been a lineup I’m looking to back for run production against lefties, carrying just a .149 ISO and around a .304-.310 wOBA vs LHP. Snell’s stuff also matches up well here. He’s still bringing a 96 MPH fastball, and the slider remains the putaway pitch with strong whiff upside. Even if Colorado puts a few balls in play, this is not a lineup that consistently punishes left-handed pitching with power. Another big piece here is recent form: Snell has allowed 0 HR per start over his last 2 starts, so if he can avoid the long ball again, it becomes much harder for Colorado to push 3 earned across. The Rockies’ L10 hit rate vs LHP is sitting at just 20% and with their limited power profile, We’re trusting Snell to work through this lineup and keep the run damage low.

MLB POTD #1⚾️ (Aug. 16th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 📲 1. Tarik Skubal O17.5 Outs (-129) #Dodgers Skubal has been one of the most reliable arms in baseball and this number is very reachable if he gives us his normal workload. Over his last 7 starts, he’s averaging 17.6 outs per start, and the matchup still supports him getting into the 6th inning or deeper. He has the stuff to work through this lineup. He’s carrying an 11.3 K/9, and his arsenal gives him multiple ways to put hitters away, especially with that power fastball sitting around 96.7 MPH and a changeup generating a 49% whiff rate. The Brewers also have a .326 OBP vs lefties, so there is some traffic risk, but we trust Skubal’s efficiency and leash here. Even if he allows a few baserunners, he has the strikeout upside to limit damage and keep his pitch count manageable. Skubal’s recent form, swing-and-miss stuff, and ability to work deep into games, we like him to clear 17.5 outs.

PrizePicks x Flex Friday💪 14x💰 1. Alec Burleson O5.5 HFS💎 2. Wilyer Abreu O5.5 HFS💎 3. Yandy Diaz O6.5 HFS💎 4. Chris Sale O5.5 Ks💎 5. Drake Baldwin O5.5 HFS💎 6. Kyle Freeland U5.5 Ks💎

MLB POTD #1⚾️ (Aug. 14th) Collab w/@SC_FFB 🐐 1. Kyle Freeland U5.5 Ks (-138) #Rockies Freeland’s strikeout profile just hasn’t shown enough upside to trust him over this number. He’s averaging only 5.1 Ks on the season and has stayed under 5.5 in 6 of his last 10, including 3 of his last 5. The matchup does give him some K appeal on paper with San Francisco carrying a 23.4% K rate vs LHP, but Freeland himself is only at 7.6 K/9 over his last 7 starts and doesn’t have the kind of overpowering arsenal that consistently creates big strikeout games. His whiffs mostly come from the knuckle curve/sweeper mix, but he’s still a fastball-heavy lefty who can run into contact-heavy stretches. With the Giants ranking just 13th in K% vs LHP and only 20% of opposing LHP clearing their K line over the last 10, we would rather fade the ceiling here. Freeland has only cleared this line 29% of the season and we think 4–5 Ks is the more realistic range tonight.

Chalkboard POTD👨‍🏫 They tossed me a free $10 so why not. 5.13x💰 1. PCA O1.5 HRR💎 2. CJ Abrams 1+ Hits💎 3. Masataka Yoshida O1.5 HRR💎 4. Jackson Chourio O1.5 HRR💎

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PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #3👨‍🍳 4x💰 1. A’ja Wilson O16.5 Points🌮 2. Paul Skenes O5.5 Ks💎 3. Pete Alonso O6.5 HFS💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #2👨‍🍳 4x💰 1. Cristopher Sanchez O3.5 Ks🌮 2. Nolan McLean O4.5 Ks💎 3. Jackson Chourio O6.5 HFS💎

PrizePicks Longshot😈 19x💰 1. Paul Skenes O7.5 Ks💎 2. Dylan Cease O8.5 Ks💎 3. Nolan McLean O6.5 Ks💎 4. Sean Burke O7.5 Ks💎

PrizePicks x Taco Tuesday #1👨‍🍳 4x💰 1. Kelsey Mitchell O16.5 Points🌮 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong O8.5 HFS💎 3. Dylan Cease O6.5 Ks💎

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Sleeper 25% Boost😴 3.8x💰 1. Yordan Alvarez 1+ Hits💎 2. Masataka Yoshida 1+ Hits💎 3. Alec Burleson 1+ Hits💎 4. Bryson Stott 1+ Hits💎