Its not a question if the 🇪🇺 EU can install a comparable system to Starlink & Starshield in Europe and Ukraine but how long it will take and here is a realistic estimation:
2026–28
Immediate stopgap measures
Europe can consolidate existing satellite capacity, purchase commercial services, and secure selected military communications links. This would cover important requirements, but it would not provide a complete replacement for Starlink and Starshield at the front.
2029–30
First independent European capabilities
The EU plans to begin launching IRIS² satellites from 2029, with initial secure communications services expected around 2030. A German military satellitenetworkis also planned. This should make Europe more independent, although it would not yet match Starlink's overall capacity.
2030–32
A plausible timeframe for a partial replacement
With accelerated procurement, Europe could provide sufficient additional capacity, terminals, and military integration to cover many of Ukraine's und Europes critical communications requirements with substantially greater independence.
2033–36+
Potential replacement approaching overall capability parity.
This would require Europe not only to complete IRIS² but also to expand capacity significantly, establish rapid satellite replenishment capabilities, and integrate additional military reconnaissance and data links. Whether and when this can be achieved remains uncertain.
Few people realize that while SpaceX has done an outstanding job with Starlink and Starshield, a satellite constellation to replace these systems is a technology that Europe can easily implement therefore its not a how but when.
Funding is not an issue, nor is securing the launch capacity needed to put satellites into orbit. There are no technical or financial hurdles for the EU, so this will happen, as Europe’s geopolitical independence is one of the member states’ most important values.
Of course, it will take time, but as the timeline shows, it is by no means the case that Europe is starting from scratch or that new developments are necessary; rather, existing programs simply need to be accelerated, and that is a solvable task.
The U.S., Russia, and China all have national interests that are directed against the EU in that respect, and Europe is well aware of this and knows what needs to be done.
This will happen. 😊