Independent investor, my tweets are not an investment advice. Charts, macro-micro, technicals.
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There're no quality stocks.
Something which is considered quality in a new cycle might be a dog shit with 25Ys consolidation after -90%+ drop. Good example was dotcom bust. You had to wait 25Ys to come back to even as cycle flipped into the banks and real estate. New cycle never repeats to catch old leaders, there're always new.
Quality stocks trading near their 52-week lows:
Waste Management $WM: -17%
Walmart $WMT: -22%
PepsiCo $PEP: -25%
American Express $AXP: -27%
McDonald's $MCD: -32%
MGM Resorts $MGM: -40%
LVMH $LVMUY: -40%
Netflix $NFLX: -45%
AppLovin $APP: -60%
Fair Isaac $FICO: -62%
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$VST - my first ever chart about this company.
Look on (M)RSI negative divergence ...
Breaking: The Trump administration is giving Vistra $4,000,000,000 loan to upgrade 3 nuclear plants
‣ Nancy Pelosi bought up to $750K at ~$171
‣ Peter Thiel filed ~$60M position at ~$148
$VST trades at $140 right now
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Without a doubt something has changed...
Equal weight tanks, SP500 flat and just tech sector left.
The S&P 500 is holding up, and that calm is hiding a lot.
Strip out AI and the market looks ugly. Lately the tech sector has climbed about 5% while the equal-weight S&P 500, the average stock, has fallen about 5%. A handful of AI megacaps are the only thing holding the index up.
Beneath the surface, credit is cracking in the weakest names. CCC and lower junk spreads just blew out to about 12 percentage points over Treasurys, the widest in a while.
This is one of the narrowest markets in memory. The S&P 500 is AI and little else right now. If that trade wobbles, there is no broad market underneath to cushion it, and the junk spreads say the weak links are already feeling it.
The trend is still up. But narrow leadership plus widening credit spreads is the combination to watch.
$RSP
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GregTheAnalyst retweeted
Don't let Obama buy the election by handing out unlimited free money to states.
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GregTheAnalyst retweeted
BREAKING: Recession odds for this year have collapsed to nearly 0%.
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GregTheAnalyst retweeted
🚨 Japan Just Broke The French Bond Market
One Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper.
Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street.
The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis.
France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy.
French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market.
Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book.
Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit.
When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust.
If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction.
We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement:
Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage.
France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like.
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7 month into war with the US. US administration is frustrated losing midterms, bond market implodes globally reaching often records making pressure on a sovereign debt crisis. SPR reserves has been depleted, while consumer sentiment reaches record lows as businesses going bankrupt left right and center, and diesel reaching 10$/gal threatening food inflation going to the moon, while diplomacy remains deadlocked.
This situation hits both sides...
7 month into war with the US, Iran’s leaders are feeling the strain. Inflation in the Islamic Republic is almost 90%, and a US blockade is choking off Iran’s crude exports, while diplomacy remains deadlocked.
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Because it's not a business for NVIDIA to catch the red flags, because nobody will hurt NVIDIA...
As investigators find more restricted chips diverted to China, US officials are asking why Nvidia failed to catch red flags bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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Yeah that was good 100m bd and market flat…
Europe just threw 100 million barrels of emergency stocks at the market—and Brent barely blinked.
With Middle East exports reportedly back to ~84% of normal, Brent remains above $100 and physical differentials are strengthening.
That’s the signal: the market is tighter than the headlines suggest.
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GregTheAnalyst retweeted
Qué bonita mañana para despertarse en Francia...
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Deflation/Depression reborns middle class and all those tools which disallow that called : QE, ZIRP, NIRP, MMT, Bond buybacks, SPR Release, No Fuel/No Food/No Future only exacerbating the problems...
2-3 generations will be needed ...
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Last thought before the weekend :
Nike needs a return of the bottom 90% of society, otherwise it'll enter deflation (or for Nike depression), because as I've been saying :
"Deflation progressing using inflationary spikes to eliminate demand on goods/services you don't need or can't afford crashing prices of those goods and raising inequality."
Nike lost -80% from its peak broke all trends and broke secular bear market border (M)MA200 dedicated for depression only.
Can Nike jump? Of course it can. Can it return? Probably it'll never return above its 2021 peak, because reborn of the middle class will take decades and Nike might not have enough time to survive this process.
Nike CEO Elliott Hill suggested that the weak sportswear market will continue in the medium term, leading to operational changes in order to reduce costs and operate more efficiently.
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This is still f... weird... They still keep buying those levels. Gold's repricing around the corner or what?
🚨 THIS IS UNUSUAL
Insiders continue buying gold options at $15,000–$20,000 on COMEX for December 2026.
Current price: $4,136.
This means THEY EXPECT THE GOLD PRICE TO QUADRUPLE.
This buying didn’t start during the rally.
It started after gold printed ~$5,600 and then dumped hard.
That’s the moment retail sold.
Insiders kept buying.
Even below $4,000.
Now they’re sitting around 38,000 contracts.
That tells you everything.
Nobody puts this on because they’re optimistic.
They don’t have to.
Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years.
When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do.
Turn notifications on.
If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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$DIS managed to finally break its 1974+ trend in January 2026.
The map has been finally written. Timeline is unknown, but conseqences are already known once you lost 1974+ trend...
Based on $WEN you see what's mostly going to happen with DIS...
$DIS secular trend. I don't think it's the bottom, but break here will result as a probably longer term bankruptcy of Disney :
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