managing director @Swan | author The Bitcoin Tao
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THREE WAYS THE WORLD TURNS INWARD
Are we moving from a liquidity-driven economy into a commodity-driven regime?
For decades, the world could usually produce more of whatever we wanted.
Now countries are turning inward just as AI, defense, reshoring, and electrification are demanding enormous amounts of physical capacity.
This has happened before, for very different reasons and with very different results.
1. Choice (Europe's 1879 tariffs)
2. Necessity (Napoleon's blockade)
3. Impossibility (the cotton famine)
…in today’s OUTSIDE MONEY
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Zach retweeted
Monetary debasement is a catastrophic scam. Bitcoin is the revolution.
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” - Henry Ford
- You: "My stocks went up 10%."
- Government: "Congratulations! That's taxable."
- You: "But inflation was 8%. I only really gained 2%."
- Government: "We tax the full 10%."
- You: "You tax the inflation you created?"
- Government: "Capital gains are capital gains."
- You: "So you profit from debasing my money twice?"
- Government: "You're not an economist."
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Except this cat is alive
The dead cat continues to bounce.
What is Bitcoin, 17 years later?
It’s not great for transactions or smart contracts; the user experience is still intimidating for most, and it’s no longer capturing the public’s imagination.
If it comes up at the dinner party, it's followed by a hearty “remember that!”
It’s a boring store of value, trusted as that—which is its biggest value.
It's boring.
Folks expect bitcoin to be stable and that it’s no longer a way to get rich quick.
Institutions embracing and accumulating it took $btc from punk rock to Muzak.
Advocates went from pirates to suits in orange ties, awkwardly sharing cringe memes — just like the cool kids do!
If Bitcoin were going to reach mass adoption and an important use case, it does better than anyone else, it would have by now.
Bitcoin feels like the CD in the age of Spotify, the DVD in the age of Netflix — a bridge technology that folks who invested in “their collection” keep saying is the better experience.
Perhaps bitcoin is vinyl, cool memories and fun to drag out and put on display, but a technology that served us to get to where we are now.
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there's a solution to this problem and its bitcoin
Minimum wage in 1963 in the US was $1.25
That was 5 silver quarters.
Today the melt value of those 5 silver quarters is $57.90.
Instead, US Federal minimum wage is $7.25
That's the whole ruse...that's the whole game.
@wbmosler
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An emergency exit sits unused 99% of time
Except for when it's used by 100% of people 1% of the time
In 1933, the U.S. government forced Americans to surrender their gold.
When Bitcoin becomes important enough, the easiest coins for the government to grab will be the enormous pools held by regulated custodians.
That’s what Bitcoiners mean when we warn about a "6102 Attack," and it’s a major reason why self-custody matters.
In today’s OUTSIDE MONEY.
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Swans flying ahead in AI adoption
As a new team member, I was quite amazed to join and see how dialed in and skillful the team is with AI.
It's not just an "engineering team" thing either - it permeates through every department.
How Swan built an agentic software factory that finds production bugs, reaches consensus on the fix, opens the PR, and proves it works before a human merges.
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We need a new measuring stick for rates of return.
As the dollar loses purchasing power, even when stocks go up, it masks real purchasing power returns, which is what actually matters.
OUTSIDE MONEY Deep Dive
Corporate profits can more than double and stock investors can still get poorer.
From 1968 through 1981, reported S&P 500 earnings rose 165%.
Investors still lost about 23% of their purchasing power, even after reinvesting every dividend.
You can own pieces of hundreds of different companies and still have a huge amount of your wealth exposed to the same valuation risk.
Great earnings don’t guarantee great returns.
You have to care about what you’re paying for those earnings, too.
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Zach retweeted
1ST RATE HIKE SINCE 2023
Warsh “not in the forward-guidance business.”
Inflation is “too high and has been for too long,”
But 17 of 18 Fed officials see the risks to inflation tilted to the UPSIDE.
THE RISK: when the Fed eventually stops hiking, that doesn’t mean long-term borrowing costs come right back down...
Time for a special @FOMC edition of OUTSIDE MONEY
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Most people don’t need to be talked into bitcoin.
They just need someone to talk them through it.
I’ve joined @Swan and will be working with Swan Private clients as their dedicated advisor.
I’ve seen a lot of bitcoin journeys up close: from organizing @DenverBitDevs and co-founding @SpaceDenver, to hosting @ValueStackPod, writing The Bitcoin Tao, and advising on bitcoin security at @CasaHODL for 5+ years.
I’m now bringing that expertise into the Swan Private team.
Swan has a full suite of solutions for every bitcoiner through every stage of the rabbit hole, whether it's buying, holding, retirement and business, or passing it on.
If you want to move further along your bitcoin journey, let’s chat: calendly.com/swanzach
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Swan has a full suite of solutions for every bitcoiner through every stage of the rabbit hole:
-instant and recurring buys
-custody in your name with a regulated institution (Swan Safe)
-collaborative self-custody, 2-of-3 multisig (Swan Vault)
-guided self-custody, Swan never touches your keys (Swan Sovereign)
-IRAs, Traditional and Roth
-tax-loss harvesting
-ETF shares converted into real Bitcoin (Real Bitcoin Exchange)
-business accounts (Swan Business)
-irrevocable gifts of real Bitcoin to the next generation (Swan Generations)
Get started at swan.com/private/zach
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