Endlessly curious autodidactic generalist. OSINT, cryptology, strategy, STEM, society, climate change. Disabled (CPTSD & sciatica). Pro-NATO & -Ukraine.

Canada
Based in Canada
Russia, the US, & China, plowing the world into the ground.
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Replying to @Frank_Stones
Ever since China started stockpiling it while they were simultaneously helping Russia manipulate energy prices, I haven't believed any of the strategists claiming each year that they had hit peak coal -- CCP environmental plans are being overridden by expansionist ambitions.
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Note what else is going on that front (I don't have the spoons or the character count to summarize, so I'll let Gemini do it). tl;dr: it's just an extension of all the stuff I've been writing threads on them planning all these years.
The New Delhi Declaration is itself #BRICS' achievement: 11 countries—some with deep rivalries—and many with divergent interests still found enough common ground to agree on 140 points. The grouping's strength lies not in uniformity, but in managing disagreement: @gchikermane or-f.org/40309 #GlobalSouth
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Alberta has always been kind of cursed, but it's become exceedingly so in recent years. If I thought there was anywhere else I could afford to go, I would. The best that I can hope to manage anymore is to take care of my cats for as long as I can take it, until I'm out of sanity.
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Mission-Oriented Protective Posture gear, which goes over top of your standard gear to protect you against chemical & biological weapons, or anything toxic in your environment, like, say, breathing in radioactive dust. (obviously he's not wearing the full thing)
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Checking global news in the late 2020s
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Seeing the US twist NATO+ into aligning its actions with Sino-Russian ones is a pretty dark reality that I had hoped we'd avoid, but it's not like there's much I can practicably do other than continue posting threads on the horror of the geostrategic climate year after year...
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This is all that happens when someone reports my post, btw -- advice to call 988 shows up in my notifications. I have called all the hotlines. They do not help or really even care. I've gone to the ER, & they tell me I'm already on a [years-long] waiting list. It's pointless.
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Replying to @OfAthenry
Wow. I didn't know how much sadder it got. What an absolute sh*tf*ck.
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Perhaps it was meant to draw the eye away from the visual signature reduction on the one behind it, which is no less practical youtube.com/watch?v=2CH-5kY5…
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Ah, I thought you were talking about after the leak as a way to revoke credentials, like what Google does for its Cloud API keys. Do you mean secret scanning on the model's side, before it puts out these blobs?
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I finally got into a group 'orientation' at the Chronic Pain Centre where I got to hear about how I'm like a tree (😒), & then they were so kind as to take an hour letting us know that the wait list is still another year and a half long. Thanks, Alberta Health Services 🫠
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International Cat Day with the boys.
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Replying to @Met4CastUK
& we're rodeoing our way right on through. Yeehaw.
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NATO's Chief Scientist released a 24-page report on cognitive warfare research last December. I'm too burned out to parse the whole thing at the moment, but I thought I'd share the link to it in case anyone else wants to peruse it.
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Happy Friends Day to my only real friends/family 🫠
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Replying to @Frank_Stones
Was that map really made with AI? Whatever model it is, that is very impressive.
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Replying to @DrDoyleSays
Probably ableism from the government (at every level, sadly). Too bad that then I'd be on the street without even basic health care. The joys of living under broken Canadian systems.
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There are lots of posts from this former DD/CIA on her LinkedIn (she seems to have some specialization in it), as well: linkedin.com/in/jennifer-ewb…
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This highlight from the 'controversy' section of that Wikipedia article is somewhat amusing given how, yes, cognitive security's still not exactly a dinner table term, & some of the walled gardens of discussion on it are actually getting fenced off *even harder* now.
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Oh good, ARLIS' COGSEC program page is still on @waybackmachine. I forgot that it was DoD-funded (via en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minerv…). It's a good snapshot of just how nascent things were, not long before the biblical surge in AI accelerated it even harder: web.archive.org/web/20221209…
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Ah, even though the ARLIS COGSEC work got taken down, some of the work they cite did not (I esp. recommend taking a look at kamamutalab.org/about/ which I plugged in context of NAFO [wayyy back when it was still new], as it exemplified a key cognitive vulnerability)
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Tagging those orgs not to annoy anyone, but to recommend checking them out (though, except for SWJ, most of the discourse I've seen is on LinkedIn). imo worth checking the Wayback Machine for ARLIS' page that I found back when I used to believe in NAFO (which kinda got hijacked):
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It's good that important conversations are still happening in the cognitive security & warfare space, though I haven't seen much outside of @NATO's @STRATCOMCOE or niche (sorry) journals like @smallwars. @UMDARLIS had interesting research, but it got scrubbed from their site.
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The 'discard' feature in Chrome is practically the only thing making this device usable with modern websites, because 4 GB of RAM & a Celeron are absolutely not something I'd recommend anyone try using in a personal computer these days.
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I think we know where this is headed.
President Donald Trump has asked the Supreme Court to allow the administration to move forward with implementing a sweeping executive order aimed at mail voting that lower courts blocked in nearly two dozen states – setting up a major elections dispute at the high court months before the midterms. cnn.it/4fYGfGc
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What a total sh**show. I get wanting to sway middle powers away from Russia/China, but enrichment unsupervised by the IAEA is a hell of a carrot to put on the table, regardless of whether Trump was only planning it as bait (one wonders, given how organized his foreign policy is).
How Trump upended the Saudi nuclear deal less than 24 hours after its signing yahoo.com/news/politics/arti… via @@YahooNews
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Replying to @Frank_Stones
My argument has been that it's still going, the KGB's just reorganized & China's gone overt (x.com/MoritzRudolf/status/16…). It's a Hot War now, but the worst of it is still being fought in the non-kinetic domains (esp. acceleratingly in the cognitive now w/ AI), imo. No clear outs.
Replying to @MoritzRudolf
Compare this to Deng Xiaoping's 24-character strategy 冷静观察 Observe calmly 稳住阵脚 secure our position 沉着应付 cope with affairs calmly 韬 光养晦 hide our capacities and bide our time 善于守拙 be good at maintaining a low profile 决不当头 never claim leadership
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I think it's very worth noting this strategy in context of the map I haven't updated in a few years, but still holds relevance in terms of the grand strategic cordon that's guiding the encapsulation of Europe by Russia + China via their strategic allies (Iran -> Hamas, Yemen).
Replying to @Frank_Stones
Several tankers have already been observed making U-turns, indicating that the physical severance of the Mediterranean Sea from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean is becoming a reality. Read my analysis on the Houthis' Maritime Embargo on Saudi Arabia here 🫴rebrand.ly/HMESA
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Oh, yeah, great. What could go wrong
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Wonderful that I have to spend 20-some hours & $$ going back & forth across town via buses to get a bunch of heart monitor cables attached in a variety of scenarios (man, these holtors print a giant bulge). I don't think I even have enough money to get to the treadmill one 😮‍💨
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Sigh. Yeah, this is about all my experience here is these days.
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Sounds like obstruction Supposedly end-of-year is the ETA ctvnews.ca/edmonton/alberta-…
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Replying to @Frank_Stones
The US also used to consume more energy for air conditioning than the rest of the world combined, though that trend's been changing. e360.yale.edu/features/cooli… Residential A/C costs at crisis pricing, or the non-monetary costs of outages, yields pretty extreme political opinions.
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Oh, sure, what could go wrong?
Inside Intelligence Agencies, a Fight Over Building a Master List of Spies nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/tr…
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It is beyond the pale to get e-mails from Bellingcat asking me for money after the way they treated me as a volunteer -- abusive, exploitative, & very exclusionary at a vulnerable time in my life. Framing it as being about the "community" kills my hope for the open OSINT culture.
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Always awkward adding more screenshots of QTs of QTs, but Twitter still hasn't made it any easier to tie threads together. x.com/Bit111111/status/17363… I'm an amateur, but most of my points are based on many experts' opinions & imo still critical to the competing spheres right now.
Replying to @Bit111111
We haven't seen much in the media recently outside of Niger, but Africa continues to be a (literal) hotbed for influence, resource exploitation, seeding of unrest, & will be hit disproportionately hard by coming changing weather. Heat + hunger = turmoil
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(wish that I could nest embeds, but instead I have to screen-cap the post I QT'ed in my QT) I think it's still worth watching the shifting energy & climate pressures shape the Sino-Russian-aligned ideological- & resource-based cordon wrapping around Europe. x.com/Bit111111/status/17577…
Expect a lot more adversarial focus on Africa It's primed for natural & manmade disasters, & still a key target for outsourced exploitation of strategic resources (& seemingly cheap manufacturing for China, which has an employment crisis with its local industry)
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Replying to @Frank_Stones

ALT donald trump GIF by State of the Union address 2018

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Replying to @ihteshamali
That feeling of mental trauma at the realization of the insanity of the system is what Oppenheimer was about. I think it's the best film on complex trauma that I'm aware of.
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Healthcare providers, when trying to explain CPTSD to them during "PTSD Awareness Month":

ALT No One Cares Love GIF by Film Riot

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Replying to @DrDoyleSays
Building such internal networks is a pearl of metacognition without peer ((in my experience) & for a bit of double wordplay; I've had to imagine people who are long dead (philosophers of old) would be proud of me, because I didn't have anyone real/alive who understood)
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I'm glad to know I'm not being ridiculous when I tell people this is where it ranks for me. I have experienced 10/10 pain a few times in my life momentarily (unanesthetized surgical removal of dental nerves, toenails/fingernails). Difference: this has lasted two & a half years.
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ALT George W Bush GIF

Some of our friends and readers are asking why I haven't written a follow-up to my piece on this administration's failures of strategy in Iran: warontherocks.com/tactical-s… The honest answer is that the fundamentals, which is what my article is about, haven't changed. I could write about it again and again, but the fallen tree is lying there in the muck for everyone to see. The administration can show you a great pile of Iranian wreckage. It keeps a tidy ledger of everything it has broken (while a steady flow of leaks reveals how Iran is reassmenbling it). But wreckage tells you nothing about whether a strategy exists. You can destroy a great deal and accomplish nothing. What the White House cannot tell you, still, is what it wants the region and the world to look like once the war is done (and despite legal dodges to avoid Congressional power, the war is not done) and how the war and, now, negotiations will make that happen. That is the whole of the matter. Questions about the presidents intent for future of the regime, loose nuclear material, the Strait, and energy markets should have been answered before the campaign plan was written. The purpose of strategy is to design military action around objectives, not to vamp around a shifting and hazy array of aims after military action has begun. The administration resembles a man who set out on a long road with great energy and no notion of where he means to arrive. As someone who toiled alongside our servicemembers with our British and Danish allies in Afghanistan, that sure feels familiar. Success in war is measured by whether your efforts bought you a better end and a better peace. I am still waiting, with my fellow Americans, to hear what that is.
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Sigh. I'd caved & finally tried Premium to avoid the impact of this stuff, but, besides giving my replies slightly more visibility (a lot of folks don't even look at notifs from non-checkmarks), it's largely been business as usual. I already burned myself & my odds out on here.
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Replying to @DrDoyleSays
I tried, but Gemini got your username wrong.
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In a world so cram-packed full of hatred, I'm glad my cats have no idea what ableism is.
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No one will ever know how hard I struggled to get this far, pathetic as my current position may be. I'd rather be a broke generalist disciple in the lineage of Bacon's 'omnia per omnia' than sell my soul to the predatory corporate world Calgary embodies. Conscience isn't free.
By far one of the toughest feelings survivors in trauma recovery have to confront is our jealousy-- especially our resentment of people who didn't grow up w/ the pain & obstacles we did. We don't have to deny it. Opposite, actually-- we have to acknowledge & honor it.
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I know many other OSINT accounts out there report the same stuff, but I try to sift through multiple sources before I give my own takes, & I believe that they often have value -- even if not now, but years later, as my older thread did for this one. I guess I'll let it speak:
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I'm not a huge fan of this account for various reasons, so while I know "experimental AI contributors" probably produce an understandable kneejerk reaction, it might be worth checking the cited accounts to see their work on where the impacts really were.
Footage of a Russian Oreshnik IRBM hitting Kyiv tonight, with its submunitions clearly seen.
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Replying to @writemeganwrite
My boys appreciate that he appreciates them
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Also, notice that BRICS is a key part of this cooperation. I've been talking about BRICS+ being the real challenger to NATO+ nations, hitting them in domains the Western alliance hadn't had international defensive cooperation in, but it routinely gets so drowned out by traditional "CRINK" discourse that I've stopped bothering to track the spread. It's nice that @TheStudyofWar is keeping at least a list in this specific layer.
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It seems that our electorates have learned very little over the years.
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A tale in three graphs. There's also a 'Super El Niño' coming, so I'm guessing we're going to see some orange skies again soon.
The snow drought gripping the American West this year is truly frightening.
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The latency is going to catch up to us, eventually. I'm sure we'll see lots of pieces on it once it hits.
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But hey, I guess it's how the world works now (LinkedIn does the same frickin' thing), & I've given up fighting it.
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I think I wrongly assumed I had to perform this ID verification step, as if I hadn't just given them my bank info. Now they have my biometrics, along with a pretty massive chunk of my digital footprint. Not a pleasant feeling, knowing the ownership & security of the platform.
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It sounded like I was going to have to wait days for the check, but it popped almost immediately.
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~$15 CAD/mon (with tax) might not sound like a lot, but on disability, it's a lot just to pay-to-play.
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Yeah, this is kind of what I would be afraid of. Not sure there's any real equity going on there.
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It doesn't surprise me that they'd *use* such a capability. Pilots are expensive, but consider also the training costs for even one SOF team, & then look at how much more they actually tasked into harm's way for this op. I just wonder why they chose its disclosure, unless for PR.
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What leads me to assume separate sensing was involved is that several outlets noted that there was a separate determination made using an 'exquisite capability' on whether hostiles had control of the beacon (the pilot could have used codes under duress). bbc.com/news/articles/cx2vpz…
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Arguing Trump could exploit the wording to go on the offence has some validity, but they helped *create* Trump, & even after revision after revision, they still vetoed it. Likewise, they abstained from calls for Iran to stop attacking other states. It's par for moral course.
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Surprise. Or not. Friendly reminder that the Moscow-Beijing axis has directly benefited from the Oct. 7 attacks & everything that has followed. Opposing violence would be somewhat understandable, but they also voted against defending commercial shipping. globalnews.ca/news/11767784/…
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It's probably also worth reading about the SD & its modus operandi (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicher…) while imagining what it would be like if it had the USIC's modern surveillance capabilities. Real fun stuff to imagine who gets to set the bar for what constitutes an ideological threat.
Read more of The Steady State’s Statement Condemning President Trump’s NSPM-7 on our Substack @SteadyState1 open.substack.com/pub/steady…
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I feel Oppenheimer (2023) was less of a story about nuclear war, & more of a tale of the toll on the psyche from foreseeing horror at that scale. I'm really not worried about nuclear strikes; their epicentres would be a mercy where we're headed. imo, the real ending is climate.

ALT Oppenheimer Nuclear Missile GIF

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